How COVID-19 is Changing the World Order

As COVID-19 has grown into a pandemic, it has a

profound and complex impact on the world order.

To provide our readers with more insights, we have

invited six scholars to conduct an in-depth discussion

on how COVID-19 is changing the world order.

China Institute of International Studies

中国国际问题研究院

How COVID-19

is Changing the

World Order

ontents

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future …………………………… 10

Qin Yaqing

One World, Two Orders ………………………………………… 34

Ruan Zongze

The Dual Role of COVID-19 in Changing

International Landscape ………………………………………… 43

Cui Hongjian

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World ……………………………………… 1

Yu Hongjun

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations ………………………… 18

Yang Jiemian

Attaching Great Importance to the New

Adjustment and Its Impact on Globalization …………………… 27

Zhang Yunling

HOW COVID-19 IS CHANGING THE WORLD ORDER

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World

Yu Hong jun

The year 2020 is of pivotal importance for China to secure a decisive victory in

building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, achieve the great goal of

national rejuvenation, and move closer to global center stage. Also, the year 2020

is crucial for the international community to promote a new round of globalization

and perfect global governance. However, the unexpected outbreak of COVID-19 has

paralyzed the whole of humanity in an unprecedented manner. The “political virus”

of beggar-thy-neighbor policy, mutual hostility and isolation, joined by the “spiritual

plague” of scapegoating, defamation and instigating confrontation, has been causing

turbulence to the world order. Facing such a chaotic international situation, to be

able to draw on advantages and avoid disadvantages in this era of profound changes

unseen in a century and forge ahead despite twists and turns, China has to remain

committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind, actively

participating in the global anti-epidemic cooperation, promoting construction of

Yu Hongjun is Vice Chairman of the Chinese People’s Association for Peace and Disarmament, Senior Fellow of Taihe

Institute, former Vice Minister of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of

China, and former Chinese Ambassador to Uzbekistan.

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

the Belt and Road Initiative, and advocating policy communication and people-to-

people exchanges.

Promoting the Building of a Community with a Shared Future for

Mankind

In the course of human history, mankind has often encountered various

internal and external risks and dangers, as it went through unforeseeable conflicts

and adventures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest global health

crisis of modern times as well as a life-and-death struggle for the entire human

race, the adverse impact of which on international relations, the world economy,

social culture and human behavior in the future remains impossible to be accurately

evaluated.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), by the end of April, the

number of confirmed cases worldwide had exceeded 3 million, and there had been

nearly 22 thousand deaths. With the highest number of cases and deaths, the United

States has become the epicenter of the outbreak. European countries, especially

Italy, Spain, France and the United Kingdom, have also suffered from very serious

conditions, with the fatality rate in some countries exceeding 10 percent. In addition,

from Russia and other CIS countries to Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia,

and West Asia where Muslim populations are concentrated, from Africa to the

South Pacific and even the whole of Latin America, the virus is spreading without

recognizing national borders, ethnic groups, religions, ideologies, social systems or

development levels. The COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly a catastrophe and a

common challenge for all humankind.

To cut off the transmission of COVID-19 and the expansion of the pandemic,

some countries that are hit hardest have taken unusual measures such as suspending

transport linkages, locking down cities, cancelling social events, shutting down

factories, closing national borders and temporarily stopping freight traffic. As a

result of carrying out these extreme but necessary policies, the world economy

has experienced unimaginable destruction: global service and manufacturing

industries have shrunk significantly, the international industrial and supply chains

have encountered temporary rupture, and the world futures and stock markets have

witnessed dramatic fluctuations. What lies ahead for countries around the world is a

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World

common risk and a global crisis.

Based on scientific evaluation and reflection, China has long held the view that

the security and development interests of human society are closely intertwined, the

future and destiny of individuals as well as countries are closely related to each other.

In recent years, China has paid additional attention to the connection and consistency

in the relationship between development and security interests of China and those

of other countries worldwide. In March 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited

Russia and for the first time delivered a speech on the progress of human civilization,

the evolution of world structure, and the relationship between China and the rest of

the world, explicitly expressing the notion of the community with a shared future

for mankind and related concepts on times, development, cooperation, security and

civilization. In addition, he put forward that we are in an era of change, confronted

with an ever changing world situation: “It is a world where countries are linked with

and dependent on one another at a level never seen before. Mankind, by living in the

same global village within the same time and space where history and reality meet,

have increasingly emerged as a community of common destiny in which everyone has

in himself a little bit of others.”

Ever since then, President Xi has repeatedly stressed the necessity and urgency

of building a community with a shared future for humanity on many occasions at

home and abroad. In January 2017, he delivered a speech under the title of “Work

Together to Build a Community of Shared Future for Mankind” at the United Nations

Office at Geneva, stressing once again that mankind had entered an era of major

development as well as profound transformation and change, that interconnection

and interdependence between countries are crucial for human survival, and that this

is accompanied by numerous challenges and increasing risks for human civilization.

In response to the continuous spreading of traditional and non-traditional security

threats including major outbreaks of communicable diseases, the Chinese solution is to

“build a community with a shared future for mankind and achieve win-win and shared

development.”

The idea of building a community with a shared future for mankind marks not

only the theoretical foundation of China’s diplomacy in the new era, but also provides

the guideline under which China participates in international affairs, manages external

relations and promotes the reform of the global governance system. The credibility of

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

this important idea has been proven by the developing trends of our times. The gradual

emergence of global anti-epidemic cooperation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic

has once again demonstrated the essence of interconnection and interdependence in

the human community. On March 26 of this year, President Xi Jinping announced at

the G20 Extraordinary Leaders’ Summit on COVID-19 that “major communicable

diseases are the enemy of all mankind,” receiving general recognition from the

international community.

In his prayer for the world, Pope Francis said: “We have realized that we are on the

same boat, all of us fragile and disoriented, but at the same time important and needed,

all of us called to row together, each of us in need of comforting the other.” António

Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations, has also stated that as a human

crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic demands coordination between major economies with

the aim of conducting decisive, inclusive and innovative countermeasures. Despite

their different discourse systems, nobody can ignore that the scientific conception of a

shared future for mankind is receiving broad recognition.

Hence, no matter how the global situation will change in the future and in what

manner the post-epidemic world will be reconstructed, China should unswervingly

adhere to the idea of building a community with a shared future for mankind, and

remain committed to adopting this theory and related policies in its diplomacy, to

promote the common development and progress of human society.

Contributing to Global Anti-Epidemic Cooperation

With distinct governance systems, social customs and cultural psychology,

as well as different levels of development, the capability and approach of countries

to cope with major disasters and crises vary greatly. However, in addressing these

major disasters, cooperation and mutual assistance are in line with the humanitarian

character and nature of human society as well as with the constant demand to work

together in times of crisis.

In its fight against the sudden outbreak of COVID-19, China has received support

and assistance from foreign governments, enterprises, non-governmental organizations

as well as friendly people worldwide. The Chinese government has repeatedly

expressed its gratefulness. Meanwhile, China has also worked closely with the WHO

from the very beginning, reporting in a timely manner about all developments of the

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World

epidemic and China’s prevention and control measures. As its domestic situation was

gradually stabilizing, China began providing support and assistance in various forms

to the WHO and related UN agencies, neighboring countries, developing nations,

and even the United States and European countries, which has been widely praised

by the international community. Even US President Donald Trump expressed his

appreciation and had to admit that China’s contribution to the global anti-pandemic

battle was “positive.”

The world knows that from the very beginning China has embraced the

international community’s solidarity and cooperation in response to the COVID-19

pandemic with an attitude of honesty, openness and active participation. At the G20

Extraordinary Leaders’ Summit, President Xi announced that China would be more

than ready to share its good practices while submitting four proposals for fighting an

all-out global war against the COVID-19 outbreak. At that time, he also wrote in a

reply letter to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: “… humanity

is a community with a shared future … China will continue to work with WHO and

other countries and contribute our part to upholding global public health security.”

Since then, the international community has witnessed practical actions being taken

by the central and local governments, non-governmental organizations, enterprises,

public institutions, diplomatic missions, and companies operating overseas. China is

injecting ample resources and support into the global anti-epidemic cooperation, with

an increasing number of Chinese experts and medical staff sent to all parts of the world

to fight in the frontlines against this pandemic.

There are many indications suggesting that worldwide anti-epidemic actions

may have to continue for quite some time. China’s involvement in the global anti-

epidemic cooperation, in a variety of forms, has generated both rewards with good

faith, and unexpected problems ranging from malicious attacks and distortions made

by international hostile forces to misconduct of corrupt enterprises or malignant

individuals resulting in an adverse impact. However, under any circumstances of

complexity and hardship, China firmly believes in taking due responsibility and

fulfilling its corresponding mission in the global anti-epidemic cooperation. To address

this major issue of overarching significance concerning the future of humankind,

China is moving forward together with the international community, in accordance

with the trend of the times.

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

Advancing the Belt and Road Construction

The COVID-19 pandemic has put the health and security of humankind in grave

danger while wreaking immeasurable harm to the world economy, the reconstruction

of a global trade order, and international people-to-people exchanges. In other words,

the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously disrupted the progress in the development of

human society.

The world economy and global employment will experience unprecedented

hardship as a consequence of the outbreak. As the world’s largest economy, the United

States was the first to experience a financial shock with its stock market triggering

circuit breakers several times, the Federal Reserve adopting unlimited pump priming,

and giant companies including Boeing and General Electric suspending production

or laying off large amounts of employees. On April 21, the price of the May contract

of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures surprisingly fell to a negative value, and

finally settled at - $37.63 per barrel. This round of economic crisis in the international

community will far surpass the Great Depression before World War II in the last

century. The vigorous economic globalization after World War II is nearing its end,

and an era of isolated development where sovereign economies dominate may take

over.

Confronting this grim situation, President Xi, speaking at the G20 Extraordinary

Leaders’ Summit, called on the international community to enhance international

macro-economic policy coordination to keep global financial markets and global

industrial and supply chains stable. If these suggestions would be generally accepted

and fully implemented, it is not impossible for all countries in the world to strengthen

economic ties through global anti-epidemic cooperation, rebuild the international

economic order, reshape the world economic and trade structure, create a more

efficient global industrial and supply chain, and open up a new path for improving

global economic governance.

China’s promotion of construction under the Belt and Road Initiative

demonstrates an irreplaceable commitment to preventing the collapse of economic

globalization, exploring a new economic and trade order, and boosting new types

of international cooperation. Over the past six years, the Belt and Road Initiative

has gained worldwide recognition in many countries and sectors. Practice has

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World

proven, and will continue to prove, that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is not only

a Chinese approach to contributing to global comprehensive development, but also

a new paradigm leading the world onto the path of win-win cooperation and mutual

benefit. Despite the potential major changes taking place after the pandemic, and

lasting differences in social systems and ideologies, it is still possible for countries

to conduct equal, extensive and sustainable cooperation under the framework of

the Belt and Road Initiative. In the process, they can enhance the synergy of their

development concepts, policies and regulations, and institutional mechanisms to the

greatest extent.

As governments are concentrating their efforts on epidemic prevention and

control, it is notable that the Belt and Road construction is suffering from unexpected

distraction. In China, enterprises are faced with difficulties and pressures in

production, circulation, financing, employment, safety and other aspects, which in

turn reduces their capabilities for going abroad. In addition, countries that are suffering

from the disease are less capable of pursuing large-scale infrastructure construction,

which also constrains the progress of new Belt and Road projects. Moreover, some

foreign powers are seizing the opportunity to criticize the initiative and sow divisions

between China and its partners.

In this regard, a clear understanding and adequate preparation are both

indispensable. To secure the continuous advancement and smooth operation of

Belt and Road projects, new arrangements and policy guidance aimed at optimizing

resource allocation and working orientation shall be conducted. In other words,

the construction of the Belt and Road is in demand of timely adjustment to be in

accordance with the current situation. Most importantly, China should strictly follow

its general policy of seeking progress while ensuring stability, and it shall make further

efforts in adjusting its priorities, improving project quality, enhancing the level of

cooperation, reducing security risks, strengthening people-to-people communication

and guaranteeing personnel safety. Under the current circumstances, it should attach

greater importance to the demands of domestic economy, people’s livelihood and

public health, and strive to make substantive contributions to international anti-

epidemic cooperation.

As an embodiment of China’s willingness of enhancing its own economy through

opening up to the world, the Belt and Road Initiative is China’s inevitable choice to

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

cooperate with the international community in difficult times. China is not in a rush

for quick success with instant benefits, nor does it impose pressures upon others.

Instead, it is strengthening its overall planning capability and keeping a dynamic

balance on Belt and Road construction. In global anti-epidemic cooperation and

economic reconstruction in the post-epidemic era, we have strong confidence in the

Belt and Road Initiative to achieve great success.

Advocating Policy Communication and People-to-People

Exchanges

The COVID-19 pandemic has warned us of the fact that abrupt changes

have taken place in the human-nature relationship, in the path of human survival

and development, as well as within the different components of human society.

International public opinion has been chaotic due to the singularity of the

COVID-19 event and the on-going impacts and challenges as a reaction to profound

changes unseen in a century. However, the strong capabilities demonstrated and

extraordinary measures taken by the Chinese government in its anti-epidemic

operation, which have generated good exemplary effects in the international society,

have also aggravated worries, fears and speculations of some powers against China’s

rise.

On the one hand, these forces are utilizing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in

China as a pretext to spread rumors and stigmatize China, with the intention to divert

attention away from their own responsibility for severely delaying anti-epidemic

measures, which in turn caused far-reaching spread of the disease. Moreover, they

demand China to take the blame for the global pandemic, and even call for China to

“compensate” the world. On the other hand, they also criticize the measures taken by

the Chinese government to halt the epidemic’s spread, even going further to denigrate

China’s political system, governance approach, and value system. The positive impact

of China’s contributions to the global anti-epidemic operation has also been largely

neglected by these voices. Given this situation, it is imperative for China to carry out

policy communication and people-to-people exchanges.

Policy communication demands that, under the guidance of President Xi Jinping’s

practice of presidential diplomacy, all levels, ranging from the central government to

local governments, from diplomatic missions to overseas state-owned enterprises, shall

China Should Pursue Four Principles as

Coronavirus Hits the World

stay mobilized and work closely with each other to inform the public with a correct

assessment of China’s domestic and foreign policies. People-to-people exchanges

require us to make full use of communication resources available domestically as well

as internationally, employing the power of any potential components of our society

including media and academic institutions, with the aim of resolving public concerns

and leading public opinion.

At present, the focus of China’s policy communication and people-to-people

exchanges is to deliver the message of China’s domestic anti-epidemic achievements

led by the Chinese government and its significant contributions to the global

cooperative struggle against this pandemic. Therefore, our current targets are firstly

to help the international community realize that COVID-19 is the common enemy of

mankind, and that the world has no alternative but to put aside past grievances and

support each other. Secondly, we should work to demonstrate to the outside world that

it is unjustified to denigrate China’s achievements and contributions in both domestic

and international anti-epidemic operations.

In conducting policy communication and people-to-people exchanges in the

current global battle against the COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to pursue

a balance between current priorities and long-term tasks. We shall therefore take

additional regular actions such as improving national image building, strengthening

domestic and foreign policy publicity, and enhancing cultural exchange and

cooperation.

Fulfilling policy communication and people-to-people exchanges is of great

importance to construct a good image of our party and nation, and strengthen the

public foundation of conducting international cooperation based on mutual trust.

Therefore, we shall remain firm in enhancing coordination to realize synergy of these

two tasks. By summarizing experience and making up for deficiencies, it is necessary

to adjust our approach to countering unfair publicity and prevent the adverse impact

of narrow-minded nationalism and vulgar populism on foreign affairs. While

demonstrating our clear opposition to any statement and conduct directed against

society and humanity, we should further institutionalize policy communication and

people-to-people exchanges with the aim of safeguarding justice, interests and integrity

in accordance with laws and procedures.

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future

Qin Yaqing

The sudden COVID-19 outbreak has been lingering on like a ghost. A global

coronavirus pandemic has become a reality endangering the lives of thousands

of people and stoking the fears of hundreds of millions. This catastrophe has had

a major impact on the world order and international relations, posed serious

challenges to global economic and social development, and raised new and

acute questions about the future of humanity. The COVID-19 outbreak and its

spread has amply demonstrated that the world is an indivisible global village,

and humanity a community with shared future. As President Xi Jinping stated

in his speech at the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit, in facing global threats

and human catastrophes, “it is imperative for the international community to

strengthen confidence, act with unity and work together in a collective response.

We must comprehensively step up international cooperation and foster greater

synergy so that humanity as one could win the battle against such a major

infectious disease.”

Qin Yaqing is Professor of China Foreign Affairs University.

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future

The Era of Global Threats

The pandemic is a public enemy worldwide. In just a few months, more

than 200 countries and territories around the world have seen new cases of novel

coronavirus. The initial 200-plus cases seem to have reached over one million cases

in an instant, a number that continues to climb. UN Secretary-General António

Guterres said it was the biggest public security threat since the organization’s

inception. Governments in major countries have also made the fight against the

pandemic a top priority.

The globalized world is an interdependent world. Since the end of the Cold War,

globalization has developed rapidly and economic factors have become highly mobile,

forming industrial chains and sales networks on a regional and global scale; people

have become highly mobile and the interaction between citizens of various countries

has become a key link to the world today, forming a transnational and cross-border

network of people; information is highly mobile and technologies such as the internet

can instantaneously spread all kinds of information around the world, forming a

pervasive information network. Interdependence and interconnectedness have allowed

the entire world to reap enormous benefits from these dynamic networks that are

constantly flowing. For example, economic globalization enables all parties to give full

play to their comparative advantages, and technological, managerial, market, capital,

and labour advantages can all attain their full value in such a mobile network in order

to achieve win-win economic benefits.

However, globalization has also brought new security threats. In traditional

international relations, the greatest threat has been conflict between nations, and

the highest form of that conflict is war. World War I and World War II are typical

manifestations of this threat. Traditional security threats have clear enemies,

explicit intentions, and specific targets. However, the security threats in the era of

globalization are threats of a different nature, with enemies, intentions and targets

that are difficult to detect, but can be more harmful than any traditional security

threat. If people could still find a region of peace during World War I and World

War II, the novel coronavirus has threatened almost every country in the world.

Information about the epidemic spreads just as rapidly, and actual and virtual fears

have a serious impact on the human psyche. In this sense, the era of globalization is

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

indeed an era of global threats.

The characteristics of a global threat are clear. First, transnational transmission.

Global threats are characterized by mobility and random spillover, regardless of

national boundaries. Since the establishment of the Westphalian system in 1648, the

nation has been the most important entity in international relations, national borders

have become the markers of a nation’s geographical existence, and the definition of

international security is often based on national borders. Nevertheless, an essential

feature of a global threat is that it is not bound by any national boundaries. Invisible

pathogens, polluted air, or computer viruses can easily cross borders and travel

between countries at any time. Even with the most stringent precautions, it is difficult

to fully control such invisible cross-border flows with no defined purpose and no clear

channels.

Second, no one is safe. Global threats target all humanity and the international

community as a whole. It transcends race, nation, creed, ideology, political system,

economic status, and social formations, and accepts no compromise or surrender.

The major threats over the years, be they SARS, Ebola, the novel coronavirus,

the financial crisis, climate change, terrorism, are all consistent with the previous

assertion. The 2008 global financial crisis, while not as directly life-threatening as the

novel coronavirus, affected almost all major economies. And the more globalized and

interdependent a country is, the more catastrophic the blow can be. The threats we are

experiencing are not threats aimed against any particular country, but threats aimed

against all of humanity; the world is facing an enemy not of any specific country, but of

all humanity.

Third, non-exclusivity. No country is immune to global threats. No matter how

powerful a country may be, there is no way to eliminate the threat and preserve itself

through its own strength alone. Almost none of the major countries have been spared

from the successive major global threats. In the September 11 attacks, terrorism struck

the United States, the world’s superpower; the financial crisis of 2008 threatened all

major economies, with the developed countries of the West bearing the brunt; and

now the novel coronavirus is spreading rapidly throughout the world, with almost all

countries being affected. In turn, if the virus is not eliminated completely in all places,

the pandemic could return and spread again.

The virus spreading worldwide highlights the risky patterns of the era

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future

of global threats. The hallmark of globalization is interdependence, which is

characterized by a high degree of interrelated sensitivity and vulnerability. The

complex, multidimensional, interconnected global network makes the entire

world a global village. If one is in danger, all are in distress. Only with the overall

security of the international community as a whole can there be security for each

member; and only with security for each member can there be security for the

international community as a whole. The fate of each country is linked to the fate

of the international community, and the interests of each country are linked to the

interests of other countries, which makes the whole of humanity a community with

a shared future.

The Iron Law of Cooperation

The reality that globalization and global threats have inextricably bound the

interests of different countries, peoples, societies and individuals further proves the

significance of Confucius’ ideas that “The man of perfect virtue is one who, desiring

to turn his own merits to account, helps others to turn theirs to account,” and “don't

do to others what you don't want others to do to you.” The common good is the

foundation, and cooperation is the iron law of the community with shared future, and

only through cooperation can we win together. The reality of the pandemic irrefutably

demonstrates that the only effective way to overcome this threat is through the all-

round cooperation of the international community and the unity and solidarity of its

members.

The history of human evolution is a history of cooperation. A large body of

research in the life sciences and social evolution has shown that species evolution

follows three laws. One is mutation, mutations produce a diversity of species and

present a colourful world. The second is selection, by which we can identify the

species most adapted to the environment, and allow it to survive, grow, reproduce,

and flourish. The third is cooperation, and only those species that actively cooperate

with their environment, with others, with groups, are the most adaptable to

achieve successful evolution. In the world as we know it, it is humans who are most

cooperative, in their awareness and in their social behaviour. Because of this, humanity

has had a more successful developmental evolution than any other species. In other

words, a crucial reason for human success and the progress of human society is that

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

human beings are great collaborators.

The importance of cooperation is self-evident. Since the outbreak of the novel

coronavirus, international cooperation has been ongoing. China has repeatedly made

declarations of active cooperation, maintained close cooperation with international

agencies such as the World Health Organization (WHO), and shared its experience in

combating the epidemic with other countries. China has taken the initiative to provide

assistance to other countries at a time when it was still suffering from the epidemic.

Regional cooperation in East Asia has also gained new momentum, with China and

ASEAN supporting each other and China, Japan and Republic of Korea showing signs

of cooperation rarely seen in recent years. The mutual donations of anti-pandemic

items and the above-mentioned messages express the sentiments and will of humanity

to cooperate and help one another. In this sense, the epidemic has brought the interests

of East Asian countries closer and is likely to become the region with the strongest

momentum for cooperation in the aftermath of the epidemic, further consolidating the

foundations for building a community with shared future in East Asia.

While cooperation is the only way out, words and deeds of non-cooperation

abound, including politicizing and ideologizing the fight against the virus, attributing

all responsibility to others, making unfounded speculations and stigmatizing

comments on the problems during the pandemic, approaching cooperation in this

fight with an ultra-nationalist mentality, and maliciously speculating on the motives

behind it, and viewing the fight against coronavirus in other countries solely from the

perspective of one’s own interests. The global crisis could have been an opportunity of

global cooperation, but in reality, it has repeatedly encountered difficulties and even

pushed the world into a state of disorder and division.

The pandemic is a global threat and the fight against it falls within the realm of

global governance. The dilemma of cooperation also reflects the awkward situation

that global governance finds itself in. Since the strong beginning of globalization,

global governance has become an important issue. Terrorism, the financial crisis,

major infectious diseases, climate change and environmental pollution have all been

identified as major global threats, and a range of measures have been attempted to

achieve the goal of governance. To date, however, there have been no substantive

Martin Nowak with Roger Higheld, Super Cooperators, Edinburgh-London-New York-Melbourne: Canongate,

2011.

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future

breakthroughs and no sustainable progress in any one area of governance. Global

threats are increasing, the deficit in global governance is growing, and there is a

clear setback in building multilateral mechanisms. This pandemic is yet another

manifestation of a serious failure of global governance.

The serious lack of international cooperation is one fundamental cause of the

problem. In recent years, populism, unilateralism, and power politics have returned,

strategic competition has been intensifying, international relations have shifted

towards geopolitics, and the sense of responsibility for international affairs has

declined significantly. The Trump administration’s “America First” policy and its

successive withdrawals from international organizations are typical of these trends.

The result is a declining trust in the international community, with competition on the

rise, and cooperation absent. Win-win cooperation is both an iron law and common

sense, and everyone seems to know it, but in actual international relations, the spirit of

cooperation is easily masked, forgotten, and even deliberately abandoned.

Rebuilding Cooperation: The G20+1 Model

The pandemic has pushed the international community once again to a

crossroads. Should we make more efforts on institution building, cooperate on all

fronts, and promote multilateralism and global governance; or should we reject

international cooperation, cower in a corner, and exacerbate the fragmentation of the

world? This is a choice that humanity needs to make.

The sensible choice must be cooperation. The sudden pandemic not only has had

a serious impact on global public health security, but also has created global threats

of varying degrees in other areas through spillover effects. The shocks to economic

development are already evident, international trade and investment activities have

been significantly restricted, and risks are emerging in the social and security spheres.

This requires the international community to rebuild a cooperative consensus and take

cooperative actions. International cooperation is an important condition for ensuring

world peace and stability, the orderly evolution of the international community, and

the healthy development of a community with shared future for mankind, and not only

to defeat the pandemic.

Rebuilding cooperation requires institutional reform and the establishment

of a sound and effective global multilateral cooperation mechanism. Multilateral

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

cooperation mechanisms should have at least two functions, one, that of political

leadership and the other, that of advisory implementation. The “G20+1” model is

more feasible in the light of current international conditions, i.e., the G20 assumes

political leadership and the UN specialized agencies play a role of consultation and

implementation. In the area of public health security, for example, the political

leadership of the G20 and the WHO’s consultation and implementation may result in

a more effective global pattern of action to combat security threats in a more proactive

manner.

The G20 is the most appropriate multilateral leadership body to assume political

leadership. It is a multilateral international organization established at a time of

global threats, comprising the world’s major countries and important international

actors such as the EU, with a high degree of authority and full representation, and is

more likely to reach decisions on crises due to its small membership. The G20 has

played an active role in responding to the global financial crisis. In the event of an

urgent threat to global public security, such as a pandemic that emerges or is likely

to emerge in a particular area, the G20, as the central leadership body, can declare its

willingness to cooperate, set out guiding principles, plan global strategies, coordinate

national policies and assume leadership responsibility for the overall advancement

of international cooperation. The era of hegemonic cooperation is over, and the

mechanism of multilateral and collective leadership cannot be absent.

United Nations specialized agencies could play a policy advisory and

implementing role within the framework of global cooperation. In the current

international environment, it is unrealistic to expect specialized agencies to play

a central political leadership role, as they do not have the corresponding political

authority and power resources. However, as a multilateral organization with extensive

expertise in particular fields, it is the fundamental responsibility and obligation of

specialized agencies to provide intellectual backing and technical implementation for

political decision-making. For example, in a crisis such as the coronavirus, the WHO

can bring together important information from all parties and provide sound advice

and concrete recommendations to address the threat, serving as a solid scientific basis

for the G20 to propose global guiding principles.

Institutional reform and the reshaping of international cooperation platforms

require solid support with regard to political will and cooperative consensus.

Cooperation: An Iron Law of the Development

of a Community with Shared Future

Multilateralism is by far the most rational form of global governance, and multilateral

cooperation is the most democratic and effective way to solve global problems

and respond to global threats. However, the necessary condition for a successful

multilateral mechanism is the unanimity of the major powers, and the sufficient

condition is broad support from the international community.

After World War I , the international community began to reflect on the evils

of power politics and reached a consensus on the establishment of a multilateral

organization, pioneering multilateral mechanisms worldwide. After World War II,

the major countries of the world reached a consensus on cooperation and established

a multilateral mechanism represented by the UN, which has made a significant

contribution to the long peace in the post-war world for more than 70 years. After

the Cold War, there has been a resurgence of cooperation among the major countries

of the world, which has played a positive role in economic and social development,

leading to the creation of multilateral international mechanisms and the promotion

of globalization. This pandemic is another major crisis in human history, comparable

to World War I and World War II, and is once again a test of the political will of

countries in the world, especially the major countries. Whether or not a consensus on

cooperation and mechanisms for cooperation can be reached as a result of the crisis

will not only directly affect the success or failure of the fight against the pandemic, but

will also have a profound impact on international relations and the world order in the

post-pandemic period.

Humanity is a community of shared interests and destinies. China has repeatedly

stressed the importance of building a community with shared future for mankind. In

today’s world, all nations should make a positive contribution to building a clean and

beautiful world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, and

inclusiveness. The outbreak of the novel coronavirus has demonstrated once again

that, like any major crisis in human history, the iron law of community development

is cooperation. Only cooperation can ensure the long-term survival and sustainable

development of any community. In the darkest moments, the spirit of cooperation

is especially precious, and the action of cooperation is especially important. Only

cooperation can save humanity.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations

Yang Jiemian

Since the winter of 2019, the sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease

(COVID-19) has lashed China and is now still ravaging the rest of the world. It has not

only seriously threatened human life but also severely impacted the world economy

and international relations. Following the pandemic, global affairs as well as state-

to-state relationships are witnessing major, even qualitative, changes. As institutional

construction and mechanism building in areas such as public health, economy, science

and technology, politics and security in regions across the world usher in a new period,

human society as a whole will eventually withstand the tough test and advance towards

a better tomorrow.

Changes in Security Issues in Global Affairs and International

Relations

Over the half century between the two world wars, the international community

had been primarily concerned with addressing traditional security threats such as

Yang Jiemian is Chairman of the Council of Academic Affairs and Senior Research Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for

International Studies (SIIS).

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations

military conflicts and wars. Since the latter half of the 20th century, non-traditional

security threats have been emerging and assuming an increasingly crucial position in

security thinking, examples of which include the large-scale industrial pollution in

the 1960s, the cross-border terrorist activities in the 1970s, the exacerbating global

warming in the 1980s, and the Asian financial crisis that erupted in the 1990s. In the

first decade of the 21st century, the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Indian Ocean

tsunami, the global financial crisis, and epidemics such as SARS, Zika and H1N1 flu

were increasingly clear warning signs, calling for the international community to pay

attention and respond. Indeed, in the face of these non-traditional security threats,

a consensus was reached between the countries and international cooperation was

achieved. However, the United States later shifted its attention again to traditional

security threats, and successively put forward its Asia-Pacific “rebalancing” strategy

and its “Indo-Pacific strategy” in order to target the rise of China. The Trump

administration even made a public declaration that China and Russia were strategic

competitors and major rivals of the US. In recent years, traditional security issues

such as geopolitical strategy, major-power competition and the arms race have again

become the focus of global affairs and international relations, while non-traditional

security issues have gradually taken a back seat.

The current COVID-19 pandemic sounded yet another alarm of non-traditional

security threats. As a “super non-traditional security” threat, the pandemic has not

only seriously affected the life and health of all mankind, but also prompted the

international community to reinforce its response to non-traditional security threats

while addressing traditional ones.

Having paid a disastrously heavy price, the international community has eventually

woken up and strengthened joint efforts in combating the virus. The G20 Extraordinary

Leaders’ Summit held on March 26 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic marked

the formation of an international consensus, where leaders expressed their commitment

to “present a united front against this common threat,” and dedicated themselves to

“fighting the pandemic,” “safeguarding the global economy,” “addressing international

trade disruptions,” and “enhancing global cooperation.” International organizations,

notably the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations (UN), have

also stepped up international consultation and coordination, urging the world to jointly

address the unprecedented tremendous challenge.

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

The overarching difficulty for the international community in the joint battle

against the coronavirus is the contradiction between the global nature of the

pandemic and the national character of states’ responses. First, there are difficulties

in coordinating the actions of the individual nations. In the face of COVID-19, which

has now spread across the globe, countries have taken different countermeasures,

with some going their own way and adopting a beggar-thy-neighbor approach.

The resulting “barrel effect” creates a serious vulnerability for international anti-

pandemic efforts. Second, there is difficulty in building coordinating mechanisms.

So far, a highly authoritative mechanism in the field of public health has yet to take

shape at the global level, and the open challenge from the United States has disrupted

the coordinating role of the UN and the WHO. Even at the regional level, such a

mechanism is absent. Even within the European Union (EU), coordination is hard

to come by as each country carries out its own policies. Some international borders

which were originally open have now been closed. Third, there is difficulty in creating

a consensus. Faced with the life-and-death test of the pandemic, some countries

have discarded the affinity between their populations and have embraced a variety

of misconceived notions. Populism, nationalism, xenophobia and unilateralism have

gained momentum and have collectively impacted effective international response to

the pandemic. What is more worrisome is that most countries have been concentrating

their energy on the “hard task” of fighting the pandemic and have been too busy to

address the “soft task” of developing appropriate conceptions of moving forward from

the pandemic. Once misconceptions have resulted in erroneous ideological trends

across society, countries around the world will have a formidable task in handling and

eradicating the negative consequences.

Acceleration of International Power Restructuring

The global epidemic prevention and control efforts are continuously catalyzing

major transformation in the relative strengths between international powers. While

the international structure remains stable in one period, changes may take place, even

at an accelerated pace, under special circumstances that undermine that stability. The

current pandemic undoubtedly serves as such a strong catalyst.

First, major international powers are stepping up their reorganization. In the early

years following the end of the Cold War, the West, headed by the United States, once

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations

dominated the overall landscape in the international balance of power. However, the

international structure has been evolving in a direction more conducive to the relative

balance of world major powers under the unceasing impact of multi-polarization

and economic globalization. To date, the United States has lost its status as the sole

hegemon while other developed nations in the West have been forced to discuss global

economic affairs with major developing countries in the G20 format. During this

COVID-19 pandemic which puts human life at stake, many US allies and partners are

no longer following the orders of their leader. For example, the G7 Foreign Ministers’

Meeting rejected Washington’s stigmatization and blame game against China.

Fundamentally, the current system of alliances has been unable to address many

challenges facing the world, and the political consensus that once ensured the cohesion

of allies is undergoing substantial fluctuations.

Second, changes are taking place in the Western ideological appeal and political

clout. Since the Age of Discovery in the 1500s, the West has been inspiring and

influencing the rest of the world by its ideological theories. However, the birth of

the first socialist country after the First World War and the founding of an array of

socialist states and independent countries after the Second World War challenged the

Western ideological and theoretical dominance. The current COVID-19 pandemic

is another attack on Western ideological hegemony. Under the comprehensive and

imminent threat to human life and safety, the conventional ethnic and religious

differences, wealth and status distinctions, disparities in economic and social systems,

and ideological rivalries have all taken a back seat. Now, for all but a minority of

people in the world (including the President of the United States), preventing and

controlling the spread of virus has become the greatest common denominator for

international solidarity and cooperation. The relations between China, Japan and

South Korea have been significantly improving, while the European Union and China

have both reciprocated the assistance offered by the other side. Even the Norwegian

Prime Minister has openly asked for Chinese support despite previous disputes. The

awareness of “a global village” and human community is strengthening under the

COVID-19 threat, and an increasing number of insightful people are breaking through

tangible and intangible barriers to think from the perspective of the human family,

which transcends traditional Western ideology.

In the process of its relative decline, the West headed by the United States is

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

counting on its ideology to help cement its global dominance, but that attempt is

being frustrated. First, the glory days of Western influence are over. The “end of

history” rhetoric in the early years after the Cold War’s conclusion proved to be a

“joke of history,” and the slogan of “Make America Great Again” reflected the reality

that America is no longer great. The Trump administration’s unilateral approach

and withdrawal from various international organizations and agreements have

demonstrated the country’s position as a spent force and its declining trend. On the

contrary, major powers other than the US, have advocated multilateralism and the

improvement of global governance, especially in the difficult global battle against the

pandemic. In addition, middle and small countries, whether developing or developed,

have been emphasizing more the value of state-to-state mutual assistance. In short,

the entire international community has shown the spirit of pulling together in times

of disaster. Second, the United States’ military alliances oriented toward finding

enemies and its global strategy based on geopolitical considerations, are fundamentally

unable to address contemporary global challenges. This has been repeatedly proven

by the international terrorist attacks in 2001, the global financial crisis in 2008, and

the current COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, with the increasing consensus on

countering non-traditional security threats, other major powers are expanding and

deepening their cooperation in fighting terrorism, tackling climate change, ensuring

food security, and strengthening disaster and epidemic preparedness and response.

Third, the pursuit of a better life and good health has been a common theme of the

international community. For countries and peoples around the globe, what is at

stake is no longer great-power competition but world peace, and their common hope

is to have a better life and greater health consistent with the progress of the times.

During this pandemic, major developing countries and emerging economies have

been grappling with issues of development and people’s livelihood, and are proposing

a strategy of creating a better, more secure and more healthy life, which has exerted

profound influence and elicited broad support.

Third, the international balance of power is approaching an inflection point

of qualitative change. In the post-WWII era, the international balance of power

experienced two rounds of major changes under basically peaceful conditions. The

first was the rise and fall of the bipolar structure, and the second was the short-lived

sole American hegemony and the structure featuring “one superpower and multiple

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations

major powers.” During the current third round of changes in the international

balance of power, a primary manifestation will be the making of important strides

amid the relative stability and increasingly balanced relations between global

powers. For an international structure that has lasted longer in peace than in time

of war, the advent of qualitative change would usually require the impact of major

events and a corresponding evolution of rules and mechanisms. Since the 1990s, the

international power relations have been continuously developing in a more balanced

direction, which has today become an irreversible trend. When we look back on the

history after a longer period, the current anti-epidemic battle may have heralded the

inflection point of qualitative change in the international balance of power. Despite

the inevitability of the overall trajectory, real qualitative change of this kind may still

experience continued shocks as reflected in the still chaotic international cooperation

in addressing terrorism, financial crisis and global pandemic. Given this dilemma,

the international community should make continuous efforts, with adequate strategic

vision and patience, to facilitate the early advent of the inflection point and ensure the

sustainable evolution of the world order thereafter.

Adjusting to a New Great-Power Strategic Arrangement and The

Innovation of the International Mechanisms

On the eve of a qualitative change in the international structure, major powers

in the world are getting prepared for a new strategic arrangement. First, the role of

non-traditional security in the international strategic landscape will be significantly

enhanced in the wake of the pandemic. Currently, due to historical inertia in issues

regarding geostrategy and geopolitics, planning for different regions of the world

usually comes before consideration of the particular issues in a country’s international

strategic arrangement. Second, the strategic status of public health in non-traditional

security will be enhanced. In the future, it is probable that non-traditional security will

feature “4+1” key areas, namely terrorism, cybersecurity, major epidemics, climate

change, plus related issues like the flow of refugees. Third, major powers will work

to coordinate with and accommodate each other, while at the same time vying with

each other over their respective roles in the international strategic order, depending

on changes in the overall situation and their priorities. Currently, most major

powers, except the United States, have achieved greater consensus on non-traditional

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

security issues than on traditional ones. Based on their agreement regarding their

commitments to multilateralism, global governance and their response to specific

events, the countries concerned should adjust their strategic arrangements, and make

efforts to enhance coordination while reducing elements of friction.

The transformation of the international structure will surely lead to changes in the

international mechanisms. Amid the current pandemic, the reality and severity of non-

traditional security threats has been deeply felt by an increasing number of countries.

To address the challenge, there has been a call for the activation of international

rules, norms and mechanisms to mobilize and coordinate the forces of different

countries. Given this, the international community should work to turn the crisis into

an opportunity, and accelerate the upgrade and innovation of international regimes

and mechanisms in order to have them better correspond to current and future global

affairs and to better serve interstate relations.

Admittedly, the trajectory of historical development never follows a straight line,

with reversion and retrogression often occurring. Therefore, there is still a long way

to go before more just and more reasonable international mechanisms are established.

One needs only to look at the building of international mechanisms since the

beginning of the 21st century. The international anti-terrorism cooperation following

the September 11 attacks not only failed to give birth to new global mechanisms, but

also resulted in two wars that trapped the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. The

G7 bloc, once marginalized in the wake of the global financial crisis, has attempted at a

comeback to dominate world economic affairs, and has often disrupted the objective,

leaving the G20 as the major platform for the world economy. The current anti-

pandemic battle is unlikely to call off the ill-intentioned attempts by the United States

and certain countries, let alone change their nature. They will go all out to take retrieve

lost prerogatives and interests which were lost in times of difficulty. However, most

countries will uphold solidarity and cooperation in the spirit of mutual assistance,

and will work to consolidate the hard-fought progress in this pandemic through

global institutions and international norms. From a developmental perspective, the

consensus achieved and efforts made by the international community in this anti-

pandemic battle will eventually overcome the unilateralist approach of some countries,

and translate into corresponding international regimes and mechanisms. Comparing

the basic positions of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on

Contemporary International Relations

World Health Organization at present and thirty years ago, we can find that the vast

number of developing countries have won epoch-making rights and interests in terms

of the international mechanisms during the period. We have full confidence that the

prospects in the coming thirty years will be even brighter.

Head-of-state diplomacy and mass participation are two important components

that stand at the two ends of international mechanisms. On the one hand, the role of

head-of-state diplomacy has been enhanced by the realistic needs of the two world

wars and the rapid facilitation of transportation and communications in early and

mid-20th century, and reached its historic climax in late 20th and early 21st century.

The current pandemic is accelerating changes in the mechanisms of international

exchange. As the most important form of international communication, heads-of-

state diplomacy is ushering in an age of “virtual summits.” Abbreviated meetings may

become prevalent in the post-pandemic era, while host diplomacy will be conducted

with new content and forms. The innovation this has made in the conduct of global

affairs and the governance of international relations cannot be overemphasized. On

the other hand, mass participation in world affairs and international relations has

been undergoing continuous changes. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)

have become a crucial channel for popular involvement in international affairs in the

post-WWII era. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, mass participation has further

replaced the actions of single individuals, which is mostly due to the pandemic’s direct

bearing on the life and safety of every man and woman. People of countries across

the world have also transcended conventional channels of governments and NGOs,

and turned directly to advanced and cost-effective communication tools that helped

mobilize the tremendous power of public participation. Hence, with major changes

taking place both in heads-of-state diplomacy and mass participation, a corresponding

transformation in mechanisms is sure to follow, which will influence world affairs and

international relations to a greater extent and on a broader scale.

Common Historic Mission of China and the International

Community

Currently, the world is simultaneously situated in the early stage of unprecedented

changes and faced with a once-in-a-century pandemic. China and the international

community shoulder a common historic mission. In response to the pandemic,

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

China has waged a praiseworthy and deeply moving “people’s war” and “total

war” and effectively controlled the domestic spread of the virus. In the early days

of the epidemic, China received assistance from a great number of countries and

organizations, and spared no effort to give back to the international community after

achieving initial victory itself. For those countries that once attacked and denigrated

China, help was also offered out of humanitarian concern. From the height of

international cooperation, China has also highlighted the crucial role of the WHO,

and sent medical teams to share its successful diagnostic and treatment experience

at the invitation of some foreign countries, while extending material and economic

assistance within its capacity. China’s long-held cooperation concepts have been

fully demonstrated amid this pandemic, and its principle of upholding justice while

pursuing shared interests has been imbued with new meaning, thus enhancing our

understanding of international relations in this new era and illuminating the direction

forward for the international community.

Amid this unprecedented global struggle with the pandemic, China should stand

at an even higher strategic position in the international community, and summarize

the experience and lessons in addressing non-traditional security challenges such

as this pandemic. China should work together with the international community to

resolve the major issues facing the world in global affairs and international relations

both now and in the future, strengthen the construction of the international order,

and establish the trajectory for the future development of global governance and

international collaboration. To achieve this, it is not only necessary to formulate

relevant principles, but also essential to define priorities and action plans.

Today, China is closer than ever to making the goal of its national rejuvenation

a reality. Meanwhile, in terms of building a new type of international relations and

a new international structure, China is in the most favorable historical period since

the 15th century Age of Discovery. The construction of a more just and more rational

international system is also proceeding on an unprecedented firm basis. In the new

situation of fighting the pandemic, China and the international community need to

more vigorously forge the new form of international relations featuring mutual respect,

fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation, resolutely build a community with a shared

future for mankind, and work for an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that

enjoys lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity.

Attaching Great Importance to the New

Adjustment and Its Impact on Globalization

Zhang Yunling

COVID-19 is raging globally, with new cases in more than 200 countries and regions,

and more than three billion people in quarantine. Although the number of cases and

mortality rates are less than those of the several major plagues in history, its scope

and comprehensive impact are unprecedented. Globalization is one of the major

reasons for the rapid spread of the virus around the world. It has brought countries all

over the world together, through convenient land, sea, and air transportation, coupled

with more frequent economic, technological, and cultural exchanges, which is now

truly reflected in the phrase as “the whole world is both cold and hot at the same

time.”

In the face of the pandemic, all countries have adopted strict prevention and

control measures. Among these, halting or restricting international exchanges and

residents’ activities are common emergency measures, which have led to an abrupt

interruption of international trade and other forms of exchanges, and economic and

Zhang Yunling is Chair Professor and President of the Institute of International Studies of Shandong University,

Member of Presidium of Academic Divisions of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Globalization in this article mainly refers to economic globalization.

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

social activities are experiencing a rapid decline. Under such circumstances, the supply

chain of production and consumption at home and abroad has been broken, and

enterprises and individuals find themselves in dire straits.

The pandemic and its associated problems have prompted the reflection: What

happened to globalization? Accusations against globalization are gushing out like

a tide, and pessimism prevails. Some people even allege that globalization is at an

end.

Globalization is a double-edged sword. While bringing benefits, it also creates

problems. In fact, anti-globalization trends have always gone hand-in-hand with

the trends that promote globalization. When the problems of globalization become

prominent, the influence of anti-globalization forces naturally increases. For example,

in recent years, the discussion on the growing gap between rich and poor has become

vigorous, in some countries it has even prompted the emergence of new political forces

and triggered fierce social movements. French scholar Thomas Piketty’s monograph

critical of wealth polarization, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, has become a

bestseller. Critics believe that globalization has led to the massive expansion of capital,

with wealth increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few.

On the one hand, criticism of globalization came from the business

community. The international supply chain was vulnerable to the pandemic

and suddenly collapsed. Therefore, they called for reconsidering the security of

business enterprises. On the other hand, criticism also came from political circles.

They blamed the spread of the epidemic and the growing economic difficulties on

their dependence on the foreign supply chain brought about by globalization. In

the future, the development of globalization will definitely change. But exactly in

what way?

In terms of its development, globalization rests on four pillars: the first is the

open and multilateral trading system, the second is the global nature of the operations

and the supply chain of the enterprises, the third is a growth-oriented open policy by

the government, and the fourth is the support of the population and their belief that

globalization benefits them.

After the Cold War, globalization accelerated because of the gradual formation

of a unified world market. According to the data, trade, investment and supply chains

developed rapidly after the Cold War. Yet globalization experienced a major turning

Attaching Great Importance to the New Adjustment

and Its Impact on Globalization

point after the 2008 financial crisis. The problems accumulated by globalization

have become prominent, triggering further reflection and adjustment. Viewed more

broadly, one of the main effects had been that the power balance of the world economy

underwent major changes. The rise of a large number of developing countries

represented, in particular, by the rise of China, has posed challenges and changes to

the previous structure of the world economy.

With the rising power of the developing countries, particularly a country the

size of China, the United States has begun to withdraw its support for the multilateral

system based on the principle of universal openness, and has begun to rebuke the

World Trade Organization (WTO) that developed after the Cold War. The common

demand by developed countries to change the old rules of multilateral mechanisms

has led to an institutional crisis for the multilateral system supporting globalization.

The trade ministers of the United States, the European Union and Japan have issued

a number of joint statements, proposing a reform of the WTO. The United States

directly intervened, hindered the operation of the WTO dispute mechanism, and even

threatened to withdraw from the organization.

Faced with domestic social problems, such as trade imbalances and regional

development, and public dissatisfaction with wealth distribution, many governments

have substantially altered their policies. Developed countries, as the main force

in promoting globalization, and particularly the United States, have implemented

trade protectionist policies by putting their countries first, and imposed unilateral

restrictions on major developing and trading countries like China. In fact, not only

developed countries, but also some developing countries no longer support universal

openness, and pursue a policy of balanced and reciprocal opening up instead. More

and more countries are considering the negative effects of opening up and no longer

recognize the liberal credo that “all openness is beneficial.”

The public no longer blindly supports globalization, but is demanding that the

government protect employment and guarantee income. Populism has emerged,

and become a major political force. This is primarily due to the fact that with the

rapid development of globalization, wealth has become increasingly concentrated

and now encompasses only a small number of individuals and groups. Large

companies have abandoned local production and have built an international

supply chain based on cost-benefit. Some traditional economic zones have turned

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

into declining “rust belts.” Major divisions have emerged among different social

groups in the development of globalization, and some groups have become its

victims.

Enterprises (especially large enterprises) are the main promoters and beneficiaries

of globalization. After the financial crisis in 2008, and in spite of further reflection

and consequent adjustment by governments and society in their policies toward

globalization, the business community still basically adhered to the strategy of

internationalization. However, due to changes in policies and social orientation,

these internationalization strategies and their operating environment have become

increasingly restricted.

The impact of the pandemic on globalization has highlighted some of the

problems, and added many new factors. Most prominent among these has been the

effect of the pandemic on corporate strategies and government policies.

In terms of corporate strategies, more attention is now being paid to the security

of the supply chain. The damage to the global supply chain from the pandemic

resulted from two shock waves: The first wave was at the beginning of the pandemic,

when COVID-19 led to the suspension of production in China, which disrupted

the international supply chain. Given that China is the center of regional and global

supply chains, its impact was great. After the supply chain broke down, a large

number of foreign enterprises that depended on the supply chain could no longer

continue production. At the same time, in order to stem the spread of the epidemic,

other countries have also adopted measures to close customs, resulting in a two-way

cut off of international transactions, and many economic activities have therefore

come to a full stop. With the easing of the epidemic situation, work has resumed

everywhere in China which has brought hope to the restoration of the broken supply

chain. However, due to the spread of the epidemic around the world, there has been

a second wave of impact and its intensity is even stronger. In particular, the spread

of the epidemic in developed countries with a high degree of globalization has

increased the impact on global production, consumption and finance. Countries are

implementing stricter blocking measures, market panic has intensified, financial

risks have increased, and many companies are facing big problems. Under such

circumstances, companies have begun to seriously reconsider their future business

strategies, paying attention not only to costs, but also to safety, and even making it a

Attaching Great Importance to the New Adjustment

and Its Impact on Globalization

priority.

In terms of government policy, the impact of the huge shock wave not only

endangers the safety of society, life, and employment, but also of overall national

security. This has led to new understanding and even a redefinition of globalization

among politicians and strategists. The most talked about issue is that globalization has

undermined national security. Once an epidemic breaks out like COVID-19, the supply

chain breaks down, and the country is faced with a major economic crisis. Therefore,

it is necessary to reduce external dependence and maintain domestic production of all

those items considered vital for national security and people's livelihood. In the United

States, some politicians even advocate the implementation of extreme protectionist or

well-nigh xenophobic policies.

However, from the perspective of the laws of development, serious epidemics

often lead to very extreme measures, while after the crisis, reason tends to prevail.

Nonetheless, we must be acutely aware of the important adjustments and changes

to globalization and their impact under the new circumstances, so as to accurately

understand the major trends and formulate appropriate solutions.

One of the trends is that for the sake of domestic social and economic balance

and national security, governments will pay more attention to protecting and retaining

key domestic industries and technologies, and pay more attention to the interests

and concerns of its citizens, thus emphasizing internal support and development.

According to reports, the US government will give more support to companies

returning to domestic production. The Japanese government has also allocated huge

sums of money to provide support to companies willing to relocate to Japan and to

bear the cost of relocation.

However, it is unrealistic for companies to totally transfer their production back

to their homeland, or even a great part of it. For most companies participating in

globalization, transferring all or part of their operations abroad is the only option

to ensure their survival and development. Globalization has given companies from

developed countries the chance to survive and expand, and has given developing

countries the opportunity to participate in global production, serving both parties’

interests. Those companies at the upper end of the industrial chain generally benefit

more. Now, even if the governments fund the relocation costs, what will happen to

future operations? For example, Apple's production is mostly carried out in other

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

countries, especially the assembly process, which is mainly completed in China and

other low-cost countries. If it is produced in the United States, the high production

costs will make its products uncompetitive.

The adjustment of the enterprise to the new situation has already begun, and

the impact of the pandemic will promote further adjustments. Since the 1990s,

enterprises have accelerated their global operations. Because of the formation of global

supply chains, many large enterprises have implemented a zero-inventory supply

system which has greatly reduced costs and accelerated the development of trade and

investment. But such a supply chain is also very vulnerable. Once an sudden accident

occurs, it will interrupt the supply chain. The earthquake and nuclear accidents in

Japan have disrupted supply chains, affecting both domestic and foreign countries.

COVID-19 is unusual, widespread, and influential, prompting many companies to

reconsider the layout of the global industrial supply chain. It is expected that a trend

for future adjustments will be to shorten the links of the international supply chain

and protect the safety of key links. In other words, to relocate some core links at home,

to minimize the distance between links, and to concentrate the main supply on a few

nodes. In the past, some products have had dozens of links in its production chain.

Such an arrangement was mainly to reduce costs, but the risks were high. In fact, some

adjustments are not primarily due to the epidemic, but to underlying changes in the

business environment. For example, as the costs in China rise, many production chains

that take China as a low-cost processer will inevitably move to lower-cost countries,

but the production chain that takes China as its main sales market will continue to stay,

and will expand production with the increasing consumption demands in China. Cost

is the basic element of enterprise efficiency. Globalization provides enterprises with

opportunities and platforms to reduce costs, which enterprises will never abandon.

Therefore, the enterprises will only make moderate adjustments to their globalization

strategy.

On the other hand, the pandemic also promotes new trends of globalization.

For example, the international transactions in public health products related

to the epidemic have increased significantly, and network technology has been

significantly its upgraded and expanded rapidly. The global spread of such fields

as online video, online education, online entertainment, and e-commerce has

accelerated. The network data industry has all the characteristics of spatialization

Attaching Great Importance to the New Adjustment

and Its Impact on Globalization

and globalization, which will provide new impetus for the overall process of

globalization. The original structure of many industrial chains can be modified

with the help of the internet and big data, making the supply chains more stable

and secure.

The sudden and fierce outbreak of COVID-19 caught all countries in the world by

surprise. The epidemic is still evolving; when it will end, how it will end, whether it will

resurrect, or whether it will break out again with new variants is unknown. Under such

circumstances, we have to observe the present and think about the future. Scientific

analysis and accurate judgments of the new situation and the changes required are

needed in order to formulate new strategies and new measures.

Since reform and opening up, thanks to the active participation of governments,

enterprises and individuals in the globalization process, China has achieved rapid

economic development and benefited from globalization. In the future development,

China still needs to support, to be a part of, and to make good use of globalization.

Before the outbreak of the epidemic, in the face of the rising protectionism,

unilateralism and populism, the Chinese government clearly stated its position

in supporting global development and defending multilateralism, which is very

important. However, it should also be noted that the impact of the epidemic on the

development of globalization has been significant. Therefore, while supporting the

development of globalization in general, we must give due consideration to the new

changes. Both government policies and corporate strategies need to keep pace with

the times, and keep up with the changes. Of particular concern is that in the United

States and other countries, some forces have politicized the impact of globalization

and the epidemic, promoting decoupling from China on the grounds of its reducing

dependence on China, and excluding Chinese companies from participating in the

supply chain using national security as a pretext. We must be prepared to meet this

challenge.

It should also be emphasized that, given that interconnection and interdependence

is already a basic feature of the our world both now and in the future, it is impossible

for globalization to undergo a fundamental reversal and for the world to return to

some form of “tribal” isolationism. Perhaps we cannot return to the original form of

globalization, but the new phase of globalization will continue to develop.

One World, Two Orders

Ruan Zongze

With the occurrence of today’s cataclysmic crisis, the world is witnessing such

immense upheavals and extensive readjustments, that it is now standing at a

crossroads of history. The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which has been

rampaging across the globe, is catalyzing profound changes unseen in a century. As

this unprecedented transformation interacts and clashes with the current international

order, an escalating contention between two ordering principles is on the horizon.

Since anyone may fall victim to the virus, only by sticking together through thick and

thin can we triumph over this common enemy of ours. Global governance calls for

global wisdom and global responsibility, but the fierce rivalry between a multilateral

order and a unilateral order is only getting more intense. Cooperation among major

powers is difficult to achieve, particularly as China and the United States, the world’s

two largest economies, are increasingly going separate ways. Confronted with such a

destructive pandemic as COVID-19, the most urgent action is the strengthening of

international cooperation to safeguard human health and well-being. The international

community expects the five permanent members of the United Nations Security

Ruan Zongze is Executive Vice President and Senior Research Fellow at China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).

One World, Two Orders

Council to jointly initiate the needed global response to the pandemic and to bridge

these difficult times together with the rest of the world.

A Global Community from Imagination to Reality

In the course of human history many battles have been fought against epidemics

and diseases, and many attempts have been made to constantly arouse awareness of a

global community for mankind. Amid today’s profound changes unseen in a century,

this fact has become even more conscious, namely that in this new historical process

the destiny of all mankind is interconnected and a global community is no longer just

a castle in the air. While ideologically motivated prejudices, the rhetoric of a “clash

of civilizations”, political divergence and other man-made complications are creating

divisions among the peoples of the world and mutual distrust between countries, the

virus, as humanity’s common enemy threatening the lives and safety of all mankind,

is now binding the destiny of people in different countries closely together. After

all, we are all in the same boat. Throughout human history, cholera, smallpox, the

bubonic plague, the 1918-1919 flu pandemic, SARS, the H5N1 avian flu, the H1N1

flu, Ebola, and MERS have ravaged the world, sometimes concurrently, and posed

tremendous threats to people’s lives and safety. In the 21st century, characterized

by a highly-sophisticated globalized economy, any epidemic can be transmitted

with unprecedented speed and scope, unfolding with a profound impact. Whether

it is a pandemic, an ecological disaster, climate change, a food crisis, or a shortage

of water resources, crises can spill over to multiple dimensions and merge with one

another, endangering human survival and development. In his March 2020 phone

conversation with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Chinese President Xi

Jinping underlined that the epidemic has once again demonstrated that mankind

is a community with a shared future that shares weal and woe. The international

community has to see humanity as one community with a shared future, look out for

one another, and join hands to tackle risks and challenges and build a beautiful planet,

said the Chinese president.

Protecting people’s lives is of the highest priority, and human security stands

above everything. As the planet we live on is turning into a global village, the health

of every individual has become vitally interrelated with that of others. No country,

regardless of their power, can sustain as an island or be completely free from the threat

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

of a virus that knows no borders. The birth of the World Health Organization on

April 7, 1948, marked the institutionalization of public health governance on a global

level, and stands as a milestone in the human history of struggles against diseases.

The WHO has been playing an indispensable role in promoting international public

health measures, uniting with the international community to address public health

emergencies, and improving the mechanisms in global public health governance.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the WHO has been the central coordinator for

advancing international anti-epidemic cooperation in the face of an increasingly

severe situation, for which it has been widely recognized and highly spoken of by the

international community.

The battle against the pandemic is a war that concerns people’s lives and their

safety. To defeat this virus, an invisible enemy, we do not need aircraft and artillery,

but rather sufficient medical resources. When the pandemic hit and swept across the

globe, most countries were barely prepared and had to react hectically to the challenge.

Medical masks and ventilators suddenly became strategic materials that were difficult

to obtain. Even highly developed countries with the most advanced technology and

equipment experienced desperate moments when medical facilities were overwhelmed,

not to mention all the weaker countries that had been lacking such resources long

before the pandemic. The anti-pandemic battle has taught countries across the world

to invest more in medical resources to be better prepared for any imponderables.

What is noteworthy, is that traditional Chinese medicine has made an indispensable

contribution to this fight. In particular, the combination of traditional Chinese and

conventional Western medicine in the treatment of COVID-19 patients has saved

many lives, which has been successfully proven by frontline practices, and which is a

convincing testimony that the two schools of medicine are not inevitably bound to be

trapped in pointless competition, but are able to complement and mutually enrich each

other.

Greater risks and challenges brought by the novel coronavirus pandemic are yet

to come. With massive economic and social implications, the pandemic will lead to the

first ever negative annual growth of the world economy since the end of the Second

World War. The spillover effects of this scenario are especially worthy of attention,

including aggravated inequality, social hatred, and racial discrimination, which could

result in turbulences and chaos for society. Those developing countries with weak

One World, Two Orders

public health systems would be among the hardest hit. For the countries which are still

subject to economic sanctions, the pandemic would exacerbate their humanitarian

disasters as they even have no access to materials to combat the epidemic. Therefore,

for the sake of humanity’s security, the international community ought to strengthen

coordination, remove barriers, lower tariffs, and facilitate trade, thus creating favorable

conditions for a global economic recovery and social development.

Two Orders

In the context of complicated international relations, the rivalry and clash

between multilateralism and unilateralism is getting increasingly fierce. Based on

the idea of a global community, multilateralism aspires to play a positive role in

addressing the common challenges of mankind. Problems of a global nature can only

be resolved in a multilateral approach, which is consistent with the trend of the times

of pursuing mutual benefits and win-win outcomes. By contrast, a unilateral order is

based on the dominance of a single self-centered power which has adopted a beggar-

thy-neighbor policy, believes in the law of the jungle and aims for zero-sum results.

The outcome of the contest between these two orders will determine the direction of

the world’s future.

Admittedly, multilateralism is facing new challenges under these circumstances.

On the one hand, a rapidly advancing globalization has given rise to the emergence

of innumerable regional and global multilateral mechanisms, while the prevalence

of enhancing interconnectivity has further uplifted the common interests of the

international community. In this way, it has been proven that multilateralism and the

international institutions that embody that spirit are conducive to promoting regional

and global common interests while also protecting national interests. On the other

hand, globalization is blurring the borders between nation-states. In times of crisis,

rediscovering the “lost nation-state” has become an emerging social movement, which

gives new space to state centralism. The pandemic has not only severely impacted

the multilateral regime, but also fully exposed the inherent defects of multilateral

mechanisms. In the face of the crisis, some mechanisms have responded slowly with

limited contributions, practically performing no function.

Crises can bring great powers closer together or tear them apart. Since the end of

the Cold War, major disruptions such as the September 11 terrorist attacks, the global

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

financial crisis and the Ebola pandemic have induced great powers to quickly set aside

differences and establish cooperation platforms. The force of international solidarity

has boosted confidence in jointly overcoming difficulties. Reflecting upon these vivid

experiences, we can conclude that international cooperation is the best approach

to handling any crisis. By comparison, great-power cooperation has witnessed slow

progress even months after the pandemic erupted. Countries have been taking their

own countermeasures rather than coordinating their response with others. Due to

the absence of effective international coordinating mechanisms or initiatives, the

self-centered mentality of some states has made a comeback. Countries have been

taking care of their own affairs, and this has further aggravated self-centrism. Besides,

ideological prejudices have developed into a “political virus” during the pandemic,

for example, some politicians are keen on playing the blame game and shifting

responsibilities on others, which has seriously exacerbated the potential for great-

power conflict. The United States and the European Union have turned against each

other because of their scrambling for medical supplies, which has further increased the

discord across the Atlantic. The relations between the US and Russia have also been

seriously damaged once again, which makes the road toward rapprochement ever less

likely.

This round of disputes between great powers reflects in essence an aggravation of

the rivalry between multilateralism and unilateralism. “America First” is nothing but

a disguise for unilateralism, and it transforms the US from a provider of international

public goods into a lone ranger that goes its own way. So far, the US has withdrawn

from a variety of international mechanisms and agreements which it deems have

constrained its operations. This has entailed dangers to the stability of the multilateral

international system. In an attempt to frame this war between humanity and the virus

as a geopolitical competition between great powers, the US has been playing the blame

game and shifting the responsibility on others, which has distracted its focus and

eventually gave more leeway to the virus. By threatening to withdraw funding from the

WHO, the US is touting its arrogant logic that whoever contributes the most should

be listened to. However, the WHO belongs to the entire family of nations, rather than

to the US alone. On April 24, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

announced the launch of an international collaboration to accelerate the development,

production, and equitable distribution of vaccines, diagnostics, and therapeutics for

One World, Two Orders

COVID-19, but the initiative was boycotted by the US. Previously, due to US objection,

the G20 Health Ministers’ Meeting failed to issue a communique that committed

to strengthening the WHO’s mandate in coordinating the response to the global

coronavirus pandemic. At this critical moment of the pandemic, the US is isolating

itself by turning away from the WHO. The unilateral approach of the United States has

weakened global joint efforts to combat the coronavirus.

Despite such US actions, unilateralism has been widely opposed and rejected by

the international community. More and more countries have come to the conclusion

that they must join hands and help each other in the face of imminent global

challenges, and that multilateral mechanisms are an effective instrument to address

these challenges. The WHO is internationally endorsed to play the leadership role and

mobilize global efforts against the pandemic to save more lives. The statement issued

by the G20 special summit in late March promised to present a united front against

the common threat of COVID-19. The 74th UN General Assembly passed a resolution

specifically on COVID-19 in early April, urging for closer multilateral cooperation to

address the pandemic. The strengthening of regional cooperation between China and

17 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), between ASEAN and China-

Japan-South Korea, and between ASEAN and China has also contributed to improving

mutual assistance in epidemic prevention and control. Meanwhile, China’s anti-

pandemic cooperation with Russia and European countries has also experienced some

highlights.

The trend towards more globalization will not be simply aborted by the pandemic.

In fact, the destiny of humanity is closely intertwined with globalization. No single

country can shirk the responsibility to jointly safeguard global public health security. It

is quite unimaginable that countries would opt for isolation and alienation from others

after the pandemic. Due to the manifold successive challenges brought about by this

pandemic, a protracted war against the virus should be expected. A unilateralist and

beggar-thy-neighbor approach would not make anyone safer; only by working together

to achieve universal security can individual security be warranted. Multilateralism is

the key concept to fulfilling this objective.

Shifting Roles of China and the United States

China and the United States have cooperated well on previous occasions of crisis

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

management, which has not only boosted their bilateral relations, but has contributed

considerably to also maintaining peace and stability in the world. Unfortunately,

there is no return to such “good old days.” As China-US relations had witnessed a

sharp downturn due to trade frictions, the current pandemic should have been used

as an opportunity for the two countries to cooperate. However, as the US seems

to obstinately cling to the wrong path, mutual distrust between the two sides has

exacerbated, and new discord and uncertainties have raised doubts about the future of

bilateral relations.

Why were China and the US able to seek common ground, put aside differences

and cooperate following the September 11 attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis,

but are going separate ways this time in the face of a surging pandemic? When the

former two crises erupted or originated in the US, Washington did not hesitate to

take swift action and demonstrate leadership. Because China interacted with and

participated in America’s leading role, the two countries were able to focus on their

common interests and forge a closer relationship. By contrast, the current pandemic

first broke out in China, which forced it to take the front position in the pursuit of

resisting the virus. Confronted with this sudden challenge, China resolutely took

the most comprehensive, severe and thorough prevention and control measures in

its battle to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which bought precious time for

the international community. While implementing the necessary prevention and

control measures for itself, China has also been offering humanitarian assistance to

all countries in need. By accelerating the resumption of a normal level of production,

China has been continuously supplying urgently needed medical materials to the

rest of the world, which has effectively supported other countries’ ability to fight the

pandemic. China shows empathy for the suffering of other states instead of standing

idly by. This is not simply a return for a favor given to China in the early stages

of the outbreak, but rather China’s proactive contribution out of an international

humanitarian spirit, and based on the notion of a community with a shared future for

mankind.

In contrast with the other two previously mentioned crises, the roles of China

and the United States have undergone a remarkable shift in the midst of this sudden

major global public health emergency. While China has now taken over the leading

role, the US seems overloaded with its own affairs, which has resulted in a decline of

One World, Two Orders

its leadership. In fact, since taking office, the Trump administration has consistently

been looking only after its own interests, shirking due responsibilities, and opting to

abandon its international leadership role. Its passive approach in the current pandemic

is only a continuation of its attempts to withdraw from global affairs.

While China has no intention to dominate the world in place of someone else,

its mere assumption of due responsibility within its capacity is being misinterpreted

as aiming to fill the vacuum left by the US. It’s just that no matter what China is

doing and how, its actions are always being criticized by those with ulterior motives.

With the mentality of great-power competition and zero-sum game, the US has

been continuously downplaying and stigmatizing China’s contributions, in fear of a

perceived rise of its power. By hyping the narrative of China allegedly “exporting its

social model” and using “mask diplomacy”, and by accusing China of striving for

international leadership and an expansion of geopolitical influence, the US is simply

missing the opportunity for joint action in combating the virus.

Particularly, some in Washington are capitalizing on the pandemic in an attempt

to weaken others and create divisions. At the beginning of the outbreak, several

US politicians, who tend to take advantage of and even gloat over the misfortune

of others, had declared China’s crisis to be an opportunity for America. While the

American people generously offered China help, the US government only paid lip

service to its commitment of providing assistance. However, when the US itself

was heavily hit by the pandemic, China still provided medical materials for the US

regardless of previous disputes. As of April 20, China had supplied more than 2.46

billion masks to the US, which means in arithmetical terms every American would

receive seven masks. Despite all this, some politicians in Washington have evaded

any responsibility, covered up their failure to address the outbreak, and instead

have made China the scapegoat. This irresponsible politicization of the pandemic

and stigmatization of China’s response has added further injury to the already

dismal China-US relations. Due to its greater mobilizing power and influence on

international public opinion, the US’ actions have also been more destructive, as it

could easily mislead those people with inadequate knowledge about the situation to

follow suit and stir up trouble. Multilateral mechanisms once served as an important

buffer zone between China and the US, but this has been gradually vanishing due

to Washington’s continuous withdrawal from international organizations and

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

agreements. The increasingly narrow maneuvering space has made China-US

engagement more difficult. Unfortunately, the current pandemic crisis has failed

to bring about China-US cooperation, but instead worsened the contradictions

between the two countries, turning the strategy of great-power competition into a

self-fulfilling prophecy.

There are no bystanders nor culprits in view of the virus; anyone could fall

victim to it. As the whole world is giving its absolute best to cooperate in fighting the

pandemic and bridging these difficult times together, China cannot be absent. After

all, all human beings are waves of the same sea, leaves of the same tree, and flowers

of the same garden. Helping others is also helping oneself. If friendly cooperation

between China and the US is unlikely even in the face of such a global challenge as

this pandemic, chances of any constructive bilateral cooperation in other areas will

be even slimmer. However, this pandemic, as an unforeseeable global public health

crisis, should not be mistakenly reduced to an irreparable crisis between China and

the US. In the post-pandemic era, the world will face the incredibly arduous task

of an economic recovery and rebuilding, which once again will require the world’s

two largest economies to put aside differences and meet each other halfway. In his

phone call with US President Donald Trump on March 27, President Xi said that

bilateral relations are now at a critical juncture, that both nations stand to gain from

cooperation and lose from confrontation and that cooperation is the only correct

choice for both sides. Hoping that the US can take concrete steps to improve bilateral

relations, he called for joint efforts from both sides to bolster cooperation in epidemic

containment, and develop a China-US relationship featuring non-confrontation, non-

conflict, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.

Bearing in mind the current and future unfolding of the situation, to safeguard

global public health security, it is necessary to strengthen and improve the UN-

centered global governance system, support the WHO’s leading role in global anti-

epidemic cooperation, boost the G20’s communication and coordination functions,

and jointly build a health community for mankind. At this critical moment of history,

leaders of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council should seek

common ground while shelving differences, and collaboratively exert global leadership

in fighting the pandemic with firm confidence.

The Dual Role of COVID-19 in Changing

International Landscape

Cui Hongjian

With the nail-biting flare-ups of COVID-19 at the moment, the end result of the

pandemic may not be decided quickly. Due to the lack of adequate understanding

of the novel coronavirus, the international community has applied different anti-

pandemic measures, leading to uncertainty about the duration and scope of the

coronavirus and bringing potential shocks to the global landscape and international

order. The pandemic will fuel changes that have taken place before, while also

spawning ideas and actions to reshape the landscape. Boosting and reshaping

will be the two basic drivers affecting the future, and how the world differs before

and after the pandemic will depend on the connected and contradictory interplay

between the two. Whether the pandemic will become a “booster” or “watershed”

of the changing world situation, the new substance of international politics, the

changing agenda of global governance, and the transformation of the globalized

economy are all major trends that are taking place and will shape the future

international landscape.

Cui Hongjian is Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Department for European Studies, China Institute of

International Studies.

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

Booster or Watershed?

Before the outbreak, several trends had already emerged in the international

landscape: globalization had reached a crossroads of the first half of its race in its

heated debate with the idea of reverse globalization; the political ecology in some

countries had undergone significant changes, with the resurgence of “identity politics,”

the over-generalized security concepts, the rise of protectionism, and conservative

policies; competition among major powers had been more confrontational and even

spread from the economic field to other fields; the fight for global governance was

intense, multilateralism was under siege, and deficits of public goods had widened.

These trends are reflected in and reinforced by the turbulence caused by the pandemic:

some countries have chosen to fight alone or even adopted beggar-thy-neighbor

policies; discriminations against nationality and race, closing borders and seizing

medical supplies headed to other countries not only reflect a confluence of populism

and national egoism, but also seem to undermine the logic of globalization that the

international division of labor can advance interdependence and common good, and

reaffirm the realist assertion that high-level interdependence cannot limit national

sovereignty or change the reality of prioritizing one’s own interests, and therefore does

not automatically bring peace and cooperation. Even at the height of the pandemic,

competition among major countries still continued and even extended to the public

health sphere in the form of politicization and stigmatization. The United Nations

and the Group of Twenty (G20), as the main mechanism of global governance, have

exposed their weak links to varying degrees. The World Health Organization (WHO),

as a professional international body, has been drawn into political struggles and unable

to fully play its role.

It is against this background that COVID-19, following the Black Death, the Great

Influenza of 1918-1919 and other large-scale infectious diseases that changed the

course of human history, has been given a certain subversive historical significance

and become a watershed moment in changing the world pattern: the economic base

of globalization might be greatly weakened, or even reversed and disintegrated; the

international system is returning to anarchy in which sovereign states are the main

unit and source of power; competition among major countries is difficult to control

and multilateralism is hard to endure; therefore, a multipolar pattern with disorderly

The Dual Role of COVID-19 in Changing

International Landscape

competition is emerging. At the same time, however, based on the historical

experience of mankind in dealing with infectious diseases and the development of

globalization, the novel coronavirus can become another “watershed” in the changing

world landscape: the economic foundations and ideologies of globalization will be

reshaped rather than completely abandoned; sovereign states can play a prominent

role in times of crisis but can also further expose the shortcomings of national power

in the absence of international collaboration; the will and capacity for ideological

rivalry and bloc confrontation is also being eroded as the great-power competition

intensifies and spreads.

The pandemic is bringing shocks and impacts to the world politics as both a

booster and a shaper, so that the world before and after the pandemic will not suddenly

break up and be completely different with each other. Whether the international

order will return to a “worse yesterday” or move towards a “no worse tomorrow” will

depend on what international community focuses on, on the reshaping of international

political connotations, on changes of agenda in global governance, and on the

fundamental transformation of the globalized economy.

New Substance of International Politics

As the pandemic has changed the ways of communication, intensive public

discussion between countries has become the focus of international political exchanges

during the pandemic, while public life and diplomatic activities have stagnated. The

“battle of narratives” around the pandemic and the subsequent “comparison of

institutions” will be the focus of the competition for national influence and soft power

in the international arena at present and in the period ahead. The main purpose of the

“battle of narratives” is to provide an explanation for the legitimacy and rationality of

policies and behaviors, which, in the context of the pandemic, serves both to maintain

political legitimacy at home and to promote dominance in international politics.

Countries that are more able to respond effectively to crises have more say, but other

countries can catch up by shifting narratives and improving their narrative techniques.

The current battle of narratives mainly includes: “nations should respond to the

virus in unity” versus “nations should win this fight on their own merits”; “democracies

are incapable of handling the pandemic” versus “centralized nations triumph”;

“authoritarian societies of the East are easy to mobilize” versus “liberal societies of

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

the West are difficult to manage.” Nevertheless, the logic behind such battle does not

go beyond the West’s so-called “sense of apprehension” towards “power shifting.”

American scholars argue that “the pandemic will accelerate the transfer of power and

influence from west to east. Republic of Korea and Singapore fared best and China also

did well after the initial turmoil, but Europe and the US are still skeptical and slow to

act, thereby weakening the Western power.”

However, there is also the view that the

“East” is further divided along political lines, believing that authoritarians or populists

are not better able to fight against the pandemic. Republic of Korea and Singapore, the

two successful models in battling the virus, are democracies instead of countries ruled

by populists or authoritarians. How to respond to a public health emergency, such as

a pandemic, is a major test of a country’s capacity for governance, social structure,

cultural advantages, and the ability of resource transformation. Either cultural or

institutional interpretation alone cannot contribute convincing answers. Francis

Fukuyama is more objective, “The major dividing line in effective crisis response

will not place autocracies on one side and democracies on the other. The crucial

determinant in performance will not be the type of regime, but the state’s capacity and,

above all, trust in government.”

The different understandings and responses to the

pandemic are changing the stereotype of “East-West” and “autocracies-democracies,”

and have spawned new cognitive perspectives and narratives, which will define the

renewal of political connotations.

Competition among major powers is a corollary of the “power shifting”

perspective. Whether this perspective is accepted or not, the response and results of

countries and regions such as China, the United States, Europe and Russia during the

epidemic will highlight the importance of the race for governance capacity in the great-

power competition. Reasons for the US’s declining soft power include: the influence

of its domestic politics, especially in an election year, on the country’s anti-epidemic

measures; its stubborn insistence on the unilateral logic and behavior of “America

First” in this global fight; political stigmatization in the name of “source tracing”,

“accountability”, and “reckoning” in an attempt to win the battle of narratives.

Europe's early hasty anti-pandemic response, the EU’s lack of public health authority,

Stephen Walt, “The Death of American Competence,” Foreign Policy, March 23, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.

com/2020/03/23/death-american-competence-reputation-coronavirus/.

“Francis Fukuyama on Coronavirus and the Crisis of Trust,” Financial Times, April 16, 2020, https://www.ft.com/

content/a42ba47c-2433-410f-8c5d-1753d4728570.

The Dual Role of COVID-19 in Changing

International Landscape

and internal debate around border closures and the issuance of “coronavirus bonds”

have all put the reshaping of its power structure and the future of European integration

in a critical but awkward position. For Russia, its domestic political agenda, economic

burden, and relatively isolated international situation have all increased its pressure

on epidemic prevention. Constant tensions in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s link-up

with Western countries based on “Spirit of the Elbe” both exemplify the country’s

traditional military and diplomatic approaches and the ambition of occupying a

favorable position in the changing implications of international politics. China's

outstanding performance in epidemic prevention and the US’s tit-for-tat actions

have created a tense atmosphere and higher expectations of China-US competition.

Some have even predicted the emergence of a “battle between the old and the new

order” dominated by China and the United States respectively, and some countries or

populations are eagerly looking forward to a new round of great-power competition

or even a new “Cold War.” However, with all the complex challenges posed by the

pandemic to the international community, curing the pandemic trauma, drawing

lessons to improve governance capabilities and seeking a viable solution to the next

crisis through reforming global governance agenda should be the goals for all major

actors to pursue after the pandemic, and the right values the international community

should always uphold in hard times.

Reform of the Global Governance Agenda

The most pessimistic pandemic scenarios are that the public health crisis will

trigger the economic crisis and geopolitical conflicts, resulting in a combined effect

of putting together the September 11 attacks, the 2008 global financial crisis and the

Ebola outbreaks. The scenarios can make sense as a major pandemic happened at the

beginning of “profound changes unseen in a century.” Several circuit breakers in the

US stock market and abnormal fluctuations in the international energy market are

sufficient to prove that the crisis has a strong coupling effect. In order to avoid the

international landscape sliding into chaos, it has become even more urgent to handle

the long-delayed reform of global governance. The pandemic has not only posed new

challenges to global governance and also pushed out the basic forms and direction for

a new type of global governance.

The development of human society has always been haunted by viruses and

How COVID-19 is Changing

the World Order

plagues. To consolidate the community of interest driven by globalization, we need an

all-dimensional, sustainable, and efficient mechanism of global public health. In recent

years, the international community has carried out bilateral and local cooperation

and obtained positive experience in combating SARS, H1N1 influenza and Ebola,

but there is still a gap compared to the global, sustainable, and closer cooperation.

To this end, WHO needs effective reform, which is not for accountability nor for

provoking confrontation, but for empowering existing multilateral mechanisms and

giving more financial support, and at the same time encouraging active cooperation

among countries and regions and extending bilateral or small-scale multilateral

cooperation to regional cooperation, given the characteristics of regional transmission

of the coronavirus. So, we need to maintain and consolidate the China-Japan-ROK

response mechanism and public health cooperation within the ASEAN framework,

and to upgrade and expand the cooperation into the PAN Asia Pacific cooperation in

due course. At the same time, regional joint mechanisms such as the European Union

and the African Union should also promote integration in the field of public health

from now, and foster the Asian-European cooperation, the Asian-European-African

cooperation, and other regional cooperation on a larger scale.

While proposing major tasks of regional and global governance in the field

of public health, a major pandemic will bring about serious challenges to global

governance on follow-up issues such as the world’s population mobility and food

supply. With the impact of the pandemic and its long-term effects, access to and

preservation of life security will be a factor of global population mobility, and

population is more likely to flow from countries with inadequate medical and health-

care capacity to countries with better medical services after the pandemic. Thus,

the situation at the Greek-Turkish border is even more worrying, and immigration

from Central America to Mexico and from the Middle East to Europe also leads to

intensifying crisis. Meanwhile, economic stagnation, interruption in the supply chain,

and trade restrictions on food exports in some countries will also increase the risk of a

global food crisis. For safeguarding people’s life and health and food safety, the existing

global governance system still lacks a right direction and an effective mechanism. How

to achieve the above security goals within the framework of sustainable development

will be the focus of global governance reform during and after the novel coronavirus

outbreak.

The Dual Role of COVID-19 in Changing

International Landscape

Transformation of the Global Economic Foundation

The COVID-19 outbreak has shocked several global economic centers and

gateways of industrial chains including economies in East Asia, Europe and North

America, aggravating the situation and slowing down global recovery. Large-scale

shutdowns and the difficulty of promoting parallel progress in resuming work and

production have exacerbated the dilemma of economic development. Moreover,

the partial breakdown of the industrial chain and supply chain has exposed the

vulnerability foundation of the globalized economy, determined by comparative

advantages and market principles. This vulnerability, amplified by the widespread

shortage of medical supplies in various countries, will reinforce the perception of

industrial reorientation that some economies had planned before the pandemic, and

will also drive policies and actions to reshape global industrial and supply chains. This

means that the economic foundation of previous globalization will undergo a profound

transformation.

On the one hand, the developed economies will clearly focus on the industrial

layout which maintains economic and industrial security and building a whole

industrial chain will become a trend especially in emerging and strategic industries.

Under the influence of market laws, before the outbreak the Trump administration’s

plan of bringing manufacturing back to the United States has been stalled and resisted

by industries in varying degrees. However, the pandemic has exposed that the US

industrial chain is partially in foreign countries and almost out of control, which

can be used by the US government to promote US industries back to America, and

will create the new political correctness prioritizing “security” rather than “profits,”

thereby eliminating resistance from the industrial community. Europe had already

launched its industrial development strategy prior to the epidemic, proposing the

layout of whole-industrial chains and leading role in emerging industries such as

the green and digital industries, as well as strategic industries including energy,

electronics and infrastructure sectors. The pandemic will accelerate its pace. On the

other hand, widespread shortages of medical supplies and other equipment during

the pandemic will cause major economies to factor life, political, and supply security

into their economic costs. They will not only bring security-related industries such

as medical and food industries into strategic consideration, but will also drive the

How COVID-19 is Changing

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supply chain clusters of key industries. The Trump administration's stance on the

production and supply of 3M medical masks can be seen as the direction of future

supply chain adjustments in the US. The painful experience that the whole of Europe

cannot produce a single paracetamol tablet and that 70 percent of medical protective

equipment is produced outside Europe will also prompt Europe to be more active in its

plan of transforming supply chains.

In this context, further “economic regionalization” is likely to replace the

existing global industrial layout and division of labor, and become the economic basis

and pattern of globalization in the future. The United States Free Trade Area of the

Americas (FTAA), the Pan-European Economic Area (PEA) promoted by the EU, and

the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of Asia-Pacific countries

are the three pillars foreshadowing the new dynamics of globalization. However, this

will still be a gradual and tortuous process. The prospect of economic regionalization

should never be one of economic fragmentation, otherwise the benefits based on

market comparative advantage will be completely wasted. Some views that equate

the development of economic regionalization with “de-globalization” represent a

one-sided and narrow understanding of globalization in conceptual terms, and are

also hard to achieve in reality. At the same time, the ability to maintain a reasonable

balance between security and profits will determine the legitimacy and sustainability

of the new dynamic, since the generalization and absolutization of security concepts

will ultimately lead to market failures and damage to the economy itself, which in turn

affects political and social security. Certain arguments that view “de-globalization”

as an approach to sever the connection with China clearly also fail to understand the

balance between security and profits. Therefore, in the aftermath of the epidemic, the

fate of globalization will be determined by whether or not we could find a balance

between regional economies and an equitable benefits distribution, and propose

reasonable and viable solutions.

The world is sickened by the pandemic. After the loss of many lives and so

much suffering, the international community needs to recuperate, rebuild trust, and

renew cooperation. The pandemic is a major test for all countries. We need to reform

institutions and enhance our capacities whether in response to economic losses

or governance dilemmas. This should be the direction in which the international

landscape should change after the pandemic.