Market Feasibility Analysis
Freedom’s Path Apartments
Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia
Prepared for:
Beneficial Communities
Project #14-4101
Effective Date: May 22, 2014
Site Inspection: May 22, 2014
Freedom’s Path | Table of Contents
Page i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 1
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 7
A.
Overview of Subject .............................................................................................................................................. 7
B.
Purpose of Report ................................................................................................................................................. 7
C.
Format of Report .................................................................................................................................................. 7
D.
Client, Intended User, and Intended Use ............................................................................................................. 7
E.
Applicable Requirements ...................................................................................................................................... 7
F.
Scope of Work ...................................................................................................................................................... 7
G.
Report Limitations ................................................................................................................................................ 8
2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 9
A.
Project Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 9
B.
Project Type and Target Market ........................................................................................................................... 9
C.
Building Types and Placement .............................................................................................................................. 9
D.
Detailed Project Description ................................................................................................................................. 9
1.
Other Proposed Uses ................................................................................................................................. 11
2.
Pertinent Information on Zoning and Government Review....................................................................... 11
3.
Proposed Timing of Development ............................................................................................................. 11
3. SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS ........................................................................... 12
A.
Site Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 12
1.
Site Location ............................................................................................................................................... 12
2.
Existing Uses ............................................................................................................................................... 12
3.
Size, Shape, and Topography ..................................................................................................................... 12
4.
General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Property ....................................................... 12
5.
Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Properties .................................................. 12
D.
Neighborhood Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 18
1.
General Description of Neighborhood ....................................................................................................... 18
2.
Neighborhood Planning Activities .............................................................................................................. 18
3.
Public Safety ............................................................................................................................................... 18
E.
Site Visibility and Accessibility ............................................................................................................................ 20
1.
Visibility ...................................................................................................................................................... 20
2.
Vehicular Access ......................................................................................................................................... 20
3.
Availability of Public Transit ....................................................................................................................... 20
4.
Availability of Inter-Regional Transit .......................................................................................................... 20
5.
Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned .................................................................. 20
F.
Residential Support Network .............................................................................................................................. 21
1.
Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Property ................................................................................ 21
2.
Essential Services ....................................................................................................................................... 21
3.
Commercial Goods and Services ................................................................................................................ 23
4.
Location of Low Income Housing ............................................................................................................... 23
G.
Site Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 23
4. MARKET AREA DEFINITION ........................................................................................... 24
A.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 24
B.
Delineation of Market Area ................................................................................................................................ 24
5. ECONOMIC CONTENT ................................................................................................... 26
A.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 26
B.
Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment .................................................................................. 26
1.
Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment ......................................................................... 26
2.
Trends in County Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................... 26
C.
Commutation Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 26
D.
At-Place Employment ......................................................................................................................................... 28
Freedom’s Path | Table of Contents
Page ii
1.
Trends in Total At-Place Employment ........................................................................................................ 28
2.
At-Place Employment by Industry Sector................................................................................................... 29
3.
Major Employers ........................................................................................................................................ 30
4.
Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions ........................................................................................ 32
E.
Conclusions on Local Economics......................................................................................................................... 32
6. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 33
A.
Introduction and Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 33
B.
Trends in Population and Households ................................................................................................................ 33
1.
Recent Past Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 33
2.
Projected Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 33
3.
Building Permit Trends ............................................................................................................................... 34
C.
Demographic Characteristics .............................................................................................................................. 35
1.
Age Distribution and Household Type ....................................................................................................... 35
2.
Renter Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 37
3.
Income Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 38
7. COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 40
A.
Introduction and Sources of Information ........................................................................................................... 40
B.
Overview of Market Area Housing Stock ............................................................................................................ 40
C.
Survey of Competitive Rental Communities ....................................................................................................... 42
1.
Introduction to the Age-Restricted Rental Housing Survey ....................................................................... 42
2.
Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 42
3.
Age of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 43
4.
Structure Type ............................................................................................................................................ 43
5.
Size of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 43
6.
Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 43
7.
Rent Concessions ....................................................................................................................................... 43
8.
Absorption History ..................................................................................................................................... 43
D.
Analysis of Rental Pricing and Product ............................................................................................................... 44
1.
Payment of Utility Costs ............................................................................................................................. 44
2.
Unit Features .............................................................................................................................................. 45
3.
Parking ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
4.
Community Amenities ................................................................................................................................ 45
5.
Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type...................................................................................................... 46
6.
Effective Rents ........................................................................................................................................... 46
7.
DCA Average Market Rent ......................................................................................................................... 47
E.
Interviews ........................................................................................................................................................... 48
F.
Multi-Family Pipeline .......................................................................................................................................... 49
G.
Housing Authority Data ...................................................................................................................................... 49
H.
Existing Low Income Rental Housing .................................................................................................................. 49
I.
Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes ........................................................................................ 50
8. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................... 52
A.
Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................ 52
1.
Site and Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................................ 52
2.
Economic Context ...................................................................................................................................... 52
3.
Population and Household Trends ............................................................................................................. 53
4.
Demographic Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 53
5.
Competitive Housing Analysis .................................................................................................................... 53
B.
Affordability Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 55
1.
Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 55
2.
Affordability Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 57
3.
Conclusions of Affordability ....................................................................................................................... 57
C.
Demand Estimates and Capture Rates ............................................................................................................... 59
1.
Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 59
Freedom’s Path | Table of Contents
Page ii i
2.
Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 59
D.
Veterans Data and Demand ................................................................................................................................ 61
E.
Absorption Estimate ........................................................................................................................................... 63
F.
Target Markets ................................................................................................................................................... 64
G.
Product Evaluation ............................................................................................................................................. 64
H.
Price Position ...................................................................................................................................................... 65
I.
Impact on Existing Market .................................................................................................................................. 65
J.
Final Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 66
APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ............................... 67
APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ................................................................................ 69
APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION .................................................................................... 70
APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES ......................................................................................... 71
APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST ............................................................................................... 74
APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST .......................................................................................... 79
APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES ....................................................................... 82
Table 1 Freedom’s Path Detailed Project Summary ................................................................................................... 11
Table 2 Key Facilities and Services .............................................................................................................................. 21
Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates .......................................................................................................... 27
Table 4 2008-2012 Commuting Patterns, Freedom’s Path Market Area .................................................................... 27
Table 5 Major Employers, Augusta ............................................................................................................................. 30
Table 6 Announced Layoffs/Closures and Expansions, Richmond County, 2012-2014 .............................................. 32
Table 7 Population and Household Projections .......................................................................................................... 34
Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County ................................................................................. 35
Table 9 2014 Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................... 36
Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type ........................................................................................................... 36
Table 11 Households by Tenure................................................................................................................................. 37
Table 12 Renter Households by Age of Householder ................................................................................................ 38
Table 13 2010 Renter Households by Household Size ................................................................................................ 38
Table 14 2014 Household Income ............................................................................................................................... 39
Table 15 2014 Income by Tenure ................................................................................................................................ 39
Table 16 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure ...................................................................................................... 40
Table 17 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure ...................................................................................................... 41
Table 18 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock ...................................................................................................... 41
Table 19 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities ..................................................................................................... 44
Table 20 Rental Summary, Surveyed Deep Subsidy Communities .............................................................................. 44
Table 21 Utilities and Unit Features – Surveyed Rental Communities ........................................................................ 45
Table 22 Community Amenities – Surveyed Rental Communities .............................................................................. 46
Table 23 Salient Characteristics, Surveyed Rental Communities ................................................................................ 47
Table 24 Average Rents, Comparable Properties ........................................................................................................ 48
Table 25 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary ................................................................................. 48
Table 26 Subsidized Communities, Freedom’s Path Market Area .............................................................................. 49
Table 27 Foreclosure Rate, ZIP Code 30904, March 2014 .......................................................................................... 51
Table 28 Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30904............................................................................................... 51
Table 29 2016 Total and Renter Income Distribution ................................................................................................. 55
Table 30 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County MSA .............................................................. 56
Table 31 2016 Affordability Analysis, Freedom’s Path ............................................................................................... 58
Table 32 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations ............................................................................................ 60
Table 33 Overall Demand Estimates, Freedom’s Path ............................................................................................... 60
Table 34 Demand Estimates by Floor Plan, Freedom’s Path ..................................................................................... 61
Freedom’s Path | Table of Contents
Page i v
Table 35 Veterans by Age, Richmond County and Georgia ....................................................................................... 61
Table 36 Median Income among Veterans, Richmond County and Georgia ............................................................. 61
Table 37 Veteran Employment Status, Richmond County and Georgia .................................................................... 62
Table 38 Veteran Poverty Status, Richmond County and Georgia ............................................................................ 62
Table 39 Homeless Veterans and Housing Needs, Augusta-Richmond County ......................................................... 62
Figure 1 Satellite Image of Subject Property ............................................................................................................... 14
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site – Building 76 ................................................................................................................ 15
Figure 3 Views of Subject Site – Building 18 ................................................................................................................ 16
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses ................................................................................................................... 17
Figure 5 At-Place Employment ................................................................................................................................... 28
Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2013 Q3 ......................................................................................................... 29
Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2001-2013 Q3 ......................................................................................... 30
Figure 8 Price Position ................................................................................................................................................. 65
Map 1 Site Location .................................................................................................................................................... 13
Map 2 2013 CrimeRisk, Subject Sites and Surrounding Areas .................................................................................... 19
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................ 22
Map 4 Freedom’s Path Market Area .......................................................................................................................... 25
Map 5 Major Employers .............................................................................................................................................. 31
Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities ........................................................................................................................ 42
Map 7 Subsidized Rental Communities ...................................................................................................................... 50
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 1
Beneficial Communities has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct a
comprehensive market feasibility analysis for Freedom’s Path, a proposed rental community for
veterans in Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. As proposed, Freedom’s Path will be financed in part
through the use of Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) from the Georgia Department of
Community Affairs (DCA). The following report, including the executive summary, is based on DCA’s
2014 market study requirements.
1. Project Description
As an adaptive re-use project, Freedom’s Path will convert two existing buildings on the
Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus into housing units targeting veterans of the
American Armed Services. In total, Freedom’s Path will offer 78 units reserved for
households earning at or below 50 percent and 60 percent of Area Median Income (AMI),
adjusted for household size. In addition, the community will contain project based rental
assistance (PBRA) on 66 units through a Housing Authority Payments (HAP) contract with
the Augusta Housing Authority. The subject property will be general occupancy in nature
and will not contain any age restrictions.
A detailed summary of the subject property, including the rent and unit configuration, is
shown in the table below. The rents shown will include the cost of all utilities. Rents
shown for PBRA units are maximum allowable LIHTC rents; however, contract rents may
exceed these limits.
The newly constructed units at the subject property will offer kitchens or kitchenettes
(efficiency units) with new energy star appliances including a refrigerator, range,
dishwasher (one bedroom units only), garbage disposal, and microwave. Flooring will be
a combination of wall-to-wall carpeting and vinyl tile in the kitchen / bathrooms. In
addition, all units will include high speed internet access, cable TV connections, and
window blinds. The proposed unit features at Freedom’s Path will be competitive with
existing LIHTC and market rate rental communities in the Freedom’s Path Market Area
and will be well received by the target market.
Freedom’s Path’s community amenity package will include a community room, TV room,
fitness center, computer center, covered pavilions, picnic area with barbeque grills, and
Income Target Bed Bath Quantity Square Feet
Developer
Rent
Utility
Allowance
Gross Rent
50% AMI / PBRA Eff 1 5 525 $490* $0 $490
60% AMI / PBRA Eff 1 23 525 $588* $0 $588
60% AMI / PBRA 1 1 38 700 $630* $0 $630
50% AMI 1 1 12 700 $525 $0 $525
Total 78 637 $592
Rents include the cost of all utilities.
Maximum Gross Rent Allowed*
Freedom's Path Apartments
Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus
Augusta, Richmond County, GA 30904
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 2
central laundry areas. These amenities will surpass the majority of the surveyed rental
stock in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and will be appealing to prospective tenants.
2. Site Description / Evaluation:
Freedom’s Path will comprise the adaptive reuse of Building 76 in the southwestern
corner of the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center campus and the northern section of
Building 18 on the northern edge of campus. Nearby land uses include VA facilities and
single-family detached homes. Residential uses are common within one-half mile of the
sites.
Community services, neighborhood shopping centers, medical services, and public
transportation are easily accessible in the site’s immediate vicinity including both
convenience and comparison shopping opportunities within two to three miles.
The VA Campus can be accessed from the main entrance off Wrightsboro Road (via
Freedom Way). Given the traffic light on Freedom Way at Wrightsboro Road, this
entrance will provide convenient access to the subject properties. From Wrightsboro
Road, both Interstate 520 and downtown Augusta are accessible within two miles.
The subject sites are suitable locations for affordable rental housing as they are
compatible with surrounding land uses and have ample access to amenities, services, and
transportation arteries. Given the target market of veterans, the subject site locations on
the VA Medical Center Campus are ideal.
3. Market Area Definition
The Freedom’s Path Market Area consists of twelve 2010 Census tracts in Richmond
County, encompassing the west-central portion of Augusta.
The boundaries of the Freedom’s Path Market Area and their approximate distance from
the subject sites are Savannah River / South Carolina (1.9 miles to the north), State
Highway 4 / 15
th
Street (1.8 miles to the east), State Highway 4 / Deans Bridge Road (2.2
miles to the south), and Interstate 520 (2.9 miles to the west).
4. Community Demographic Data
The Freedom’s Path Market Area experienced household and population growth from
2010 to 2014 and is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace through 2016. The renter
percentage in the market area increased from 2010 to 2014 and is expected to increase
further through 2016.
Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the Freedom’s Path Market
Area decreased by 0.5 percent or 210 people per year. During the same time period,
the number of households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area decreased by 0.2
percent or 46 households per year; however, based on Esri projections, the
Freedom’s Path Market Area’s population increased by 804 people and 426
households between 2010 and 2014. RPRG further projects that the market area’s
population will increase by 0.5 percent or 212 people per year between 2014 and
2016. The household base is projected to gain 112 new households per annum during
this same time period.
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 3
The Freedom’s Path Market Area lost owner households but gained renter
households between the 2000 and 2010 census counts. The renter percentage was
53.3 percent in 2010 and is expected to increase to 56.2 percent in 2016.
Young Adults age 20-34 comprise the largest percentage of the population in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area at 31.5 percent. Children/Youth account for 26.5 percent of
the population in the market area.
Approximately thirty-six percent of all households in the market area are singles living
alone compared to 30.4 percent in Richmond County. Households with at least two adults
and no children account for 35.3 percent of households in the Freedom’s Path Market
Area.
The 2014 median household income in the Freedom’s Path Market Area is estimated at
$29,283, 80.6 percent of Richmond County’s median household income of $36,319. RPRG
estimates the 2014 median income for renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market
Area is $19,481. Approximately 60 percent of all renter households in the market area
earn less than $25,000 including 41.8 percent earning below $15,000.
The Freedom’s Path Market Area contains limited abandoned / vacant single and multi-
family homes and has encountered a low number of foreclosures over the past year.
5. Economic Data:
Richmond County’s unemployment rate increased steadily from 2000 to 2008 before
increasing significantly to 10.6 percent in 2010. Since its peak in 2010, the unemployment
rate has decreased in each of the past three years and has continued its decline in the
first quarter of 2014 to 8.1 percent. By comparison, state and national unemployment
rates are 7.2 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.
Richmond County’s At-Place Employment decreased significantly from 2000 with net
losses in eight of 12 years between 2000 and 2012. The net loss in jobs during this period
was 8,732 jobs or 8.2 percent; however, Richmond County has gained 1,583 net jobs over
the past three years.
Government is the largest employment sector in Richmond County, accounting for 23.8
percent of all jobs in the third quarter of 2013 compared to just 15.7 percent of total
employment nationally. Education-Health, Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Professional-
Business, and Leisure-Hospitality also contain significant employment shares in Richmond
County. Richmond County has a significantly smaller percentage of its job base in Natural
Resources-Mining, Manufacturing, Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Financial Activities,
and Professional-Business.
Four employment sectors added jobs in Richmond County between 2001 and 2013 Q3.
These sectors are Natural Resources-Mining (3.8 percent), Leisure-Hospitality (1.3
percent), Education-Health (1.0 percent), and Professional-Business (0.9 percent). In
terms of total jobs gained, the annual increase in Education-Health, Professional-
Business, and Leisure-Hospitality were the most notable as these are three of the county’s
largest sectors. Among sectors reporting annual job losses, the largest on a percentage
basis occurred in the Manufacturing (3.8 percent), Financial Activities (1.9 percent), and
Construction (1.6 percent) sectors; however, these sectors combine for only 14.1 percent
of the county’s total jobs.
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 4
The most significant economic expansions in the Augusta area are the National Security
Agency and the Army’s Cyber Center for Excellence, both headquartered at Fort Gordon.
Between these two expansions, 4,700 new jobs are expected over the next five years.
The Richmond County economy has shown recent signs of stabilization following the
national recession with recent job growth and decreased unemployment rates.
6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:
Freedom’s Path will contain 78 units reserved for households earning at or below 50
percent and 60 percent of Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. Sixty-
six units will also contain Section 8 PBRA through the Augusta Housing Authority. Based
on DCA’s market study guidelines, units with PBRA are considered leasable. As such, we
have evaluated these units without this additional assistance and rents at maximum
allowable LIHTC levels.
Without PBRA, the 50 percent units will target renter householders earning between
$16,800 and $22,400. The 17 proposed 50 percent units would need to capture 1.6
percent of the 1,069 income qualified renter households in order to lease-up.
Without PBRA, the 60 percent units will target renter householders earning between
$20,160 and $26,880. The 61 proposed 60 percent units would need to capture 5.1
percent of the 1,205 income qualified renter households in order to lease-up.
Without PBRA, the overall affordability capture rate for all 78 proposed units is 4.2
percent.
All affordability capture rates without PBRA are well within reasonable and achievable
levels for an affordable housing community. The inclusion of PBRA will remove the
minimum income limit and significant increase the number of income qualified renter
households.
DCA demand capture rates for the project are 2.6 percent for 50 percent units, 8.3
percent for 60 percent units, and 6.9 percent for the project as a whole. By floor plan,
capture rates range from 2.6 percent to 9.9 percent. These capture rates do not account
for PBRA, which would lower the capture rates.
All DCA demand estimates are well below acceptable DCA thresholds (30 percent) and
are reasonable and achievable for Freedom’s Path. The overall capture rates and capture
rates by floor plan indicate sufficient demand to support the proposed development as
an affordable housing community.
According to the 2008 U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs’ Project CHALENG Survey
Results, which provide estimates of need by region, the Augusta-Richmond County region
had 108 homeless veterans as of 2008. Based on housing availability and need, the
Augusta-Richmond County service area was in need of 38 emergency beds, 175
transitional housing beds, and 50 permanent housing beds. The proposed development
of the 78 units at Freedom’s Path will satisfy the housing demand for this population.
7. Competitive Rental Analysis
For the purposes of this analysis, RPRG surveyed 17 general occupancy rental
communities in the Freedom’s Path Market Area. Of these 17 properties, three were
financed by Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), two were funded through the HUD
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 5
Section 8 program, and 12 are market rate. Overall, the rental communities are
performing well with modest vacancy rates. While the overall LIHTC vacancy rate is
higher, this due to the poor performance of one property which is older and not
comparable to the units proposed at the subject property.
Excluding Sierra Pointe which refused to report occupancy, the 14 surveyed LIHTC and
market rate rental communities combine to offer 1,673 units, of which 56 or 3.3 percent
were reported vacant. Among the three LIHTC properties, 26 of 372 units were available
at the time of our survey for a vacancy rate of 7.0 percent; however, all 26 vacant units
were at one community (Magnolia Park). Both remaining LIHTC communities were 100
percent occupied with waiting lists. Both deeply subsidized rental communities were
fully occupied with waiting lists.
Among surveyed LIHTC and market rate rental communities, average net rents and rents
per square foot by floor plan are as follows:
Efficiency units offered at Champion Pines have an effective rent of $653 per month.
With a unit size of 500 square feet, the resulting net rent per square foot is $1.31.
One-bedroom effective rents averaged $633 per month with a range from $555 to
$725. The average one-bedroom square footage was 681 square feet, resulting in a
net rent per square foot of $0.93.
The average “market rents” among comparable communities are $653 for an efficiency
unit (based on one property) and $655 for a one bedroom unit. Compared to average
market rents, the subject property’s proposed rents would have rent advantages for all
unit types.
No new rental communities comparable to Freedom’s Path are planned or under
construction in the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimates
We believe the product proposed will be appealing to the target market given the unit
designs, amenities, and location on the VA Medical Center Campus. Based on these
factors, market conditions, and assuming an aggressive, professional marketing
campaign, Freedom’s Path should be able to lease up 16 units with PBRA and eight units
without PBRA per month. At this rate, the project would be able achieve 93 percent
occupancy within approximately four months. This lease-up rate assumes PBRA on 66
units and allows additional time to identify potential residents. If the individuals in the
target market area are identified early, the lease up period may be shortened.
Freedom’s Path should not have an adverse impact on the existing rental stock in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area, as none of the LIHTC and market rate rental communities
serve the same tenant population. In addition, the subject property is likely to attract a
significant number of tenants from beyond the Freedom’s Path Market Area in the
greater Augusta-Richmond County region. Furthermore, the rental market in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area is generally performing well with modest vacancies.
9. Overall Conclusion / Recommendation
Based on an analysis of the proposed target market, demand, current rental market conditions, and
socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the Freedom’s Path Market Area RPRG believes
that the proposed Freedom’s Path will be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 6
occupancy of at least 93 percent upon entrance into the rental market assuming the existence of
project based rental assistance.
The product to be constructed will not only be geared toward the veteran population, but will also be
competitive with the local rental market. The proposed development will also help address the void
for housing for veterans. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
DCA Summary Table:
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Absorption
Average
Market Rent
Market
Rents Band
Proposed
Rents
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400
Efficiency Units $16,800 - $18,750 5 3.3% 194 0 194 2.6% 2 months $653 $653 $490
One Bedroom Units $18,751 - $22,400 12 6.2% 363 0 363 3.3% 3 months $655 $591-$725 $525
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880
Efficiency Units $18,000 - $22,500 23 4.0% 233 0 233 9.9% 3 months $653 $653 $588
One Bedroom Units $22,501 - $26,880 38 6.8% 396 0 396 9.6% 4 months $655 $591-$725 $630
Project Total $16,800 - $26,880
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400 17 9.6% 558 0 558 3.0% 3 months
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880 61 10.8% 629 0 629 9.7% 4 months
Total Units $16,800 - $26,880 78 16.5% 963 0 963 8.1% 4 months
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Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 7
!"#$
The subject of this report is Freedom’s Path, a proposed rental community targeting veterans in
Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia. As an adaptive re-use project, Freedom’s Path will utilize two
existing buildings on the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus and will be financed in part by
Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) allocated by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs
(DCA). In total, Freedom’s Path will offer 78 units reserved for households earning at or below 50
percent and 60 percent of Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. In addition, the
community will contain project based rental assistance (PBRA) on 66 units through a Housing
Authority Payments (HAP) contract with the Augusta Housing Authority.
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The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through an examination
of the economic context, a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housing
analysis, a derivation of demand, and an affordability analysis.
'($%$
The report format is comprehensive and conforms to DCA’s 2014 Market Study Manual. The market
study also considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) recommended
Model Content Standards and Market Study Index.
)*$*$*++&(*+*$*++&
The Client is Beneficial Communities. Along with the Client, the Intended Users are DCA, potential
lenders, and investors.
%%)#(!), '*$&
This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the following:
DCA’s 2014 Market Study Manual and Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP).
The National Council of Housing Market Analyst’s (NCHMA) Model Content Standards and
Market Study Index.
#%-.
To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use of
the market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors.
Our concluded scope of work is described below:
This market study is an update of a study completed on June 8, 2012.
Please refer to Appendices 5-6 for a detailed list of DCA and NCAHMA requirements as well
as the corresponding pages of requirements within the report. The NCAHMA requirements
listed below are not applicable considering the following:
Estimate of Market Rent and Estimate of Achievable Restricted Rent – As DCA
requires its own “market rent” calculation, including separate NCAHMA estimates of
market and achievable restricted rent would be confusing to the reader. For the
Freedom’s Path | Introduction
Page 8
purposes of this analysis, the appropriateness of the proposed rents was evaluated
without a derivation of NCAHMA market and achievable restricted rents.
Tad Scepaniak (Principal), conducted visits to the subject site, neighborhood, and market area
on May 22, 2014 for the purposes of this update. Michael Riley (Analyst) conducted the
original field work on June 5, 2012.
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the
various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property
managers, Lois Schmidt with the Augusta Planning and Development Department, and Sevi
Roberson with the Augusta Housing Authority.
All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of this
report.
%$'$($*&
The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be relied
upon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur in the marketplace. There can be
no assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact
be realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions
expressed in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date
may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety of factors,
including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and local economic
conditions, and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitive environment.
Reference is made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in
Appendix I of this report.
Freedom’s Path | Project Description
Page 9
/0
"#$
Freedom’s Path will contain 78 rental units in two existing buildings on the Charlie Norwood VA
Medical Center Campus. The project will include 50 one bedroom units and 28 efficiency units. All
units at Freedom’s Path will benefit from Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) and be restricted
to households earning at or below 50 percent and 60 percent of Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted
for household size. As the subject properties will also contain PBRA on 66 units, most prospective
tenants will not be subject to minimum income requirements and will pay a rent based on a
percentage of income.
"#$1%(*+(2$(.$
Freedom’s Path will target very low to moderate income renter households and provide permanent
housing for veterans of the American Armed Services. With a unit mix of efficiency and one bedroom
units, potential tenants will primarily consist of single-person households with some couples.
)+*21%&(*+)(#'*$
The 78 rental units offered at Freedom’s Path will be contained in two existing buildings on the Charlie
Norwood VA Medical Center campus, both of which are currently vacant. Building 76 is a three-story
mid-rise building with interior access hallways and a central elevator. Building 18 is the northern
section of a large three-story, mid-rise structure. The general redevelopment plan for the buildings
will utilize the original building structures, but demolish/reconfigure interior walls to construct
apartments and community amenities. Parking for the community will be available in adjacent lots
and free for all residents.
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Freedom’s Path will offer 28 efficiency units and 50 one bedroom units targeting households
earning at or below 50 percent and 60 percent of the AMI (Table 1).
The adaptive reuse of the existing buildings for Freedom’s Path will result in a range of unit
sizes with approximate averages of 525 square feet for efficiency units and 700 square feet
for one bedroom units.
All units will contain one bathroom.
For the purposes of this analysis, rents for units with project based rental assistance are based
on maximum allowable LIHTC rents. The proposed rents for Freedom’s Path are as follows:
$490 for 50 percent efficiency LIHTC/PBRA units
$588 for 60 percent efficiency LIHTC/PBRA units
$630 for 60 percent one bedroom LIHTC/PBRA units
$525 for 50 percent one bedroom LIHTC units
The proposed rents will include the cost of all utilities. All units will feature electric appliances
and heating.
Given the existence of PBRA on 66 units, the tenant paid portion of rent will be based on 30
percent of their adjusted gross income. Twelve tenants will pay the proposed rent.
All units will be fully furnished. Efficiency and one bedroom units will contain a bed, night
stand, dresser, table, and chair. One bedroom units will also include a couch.
Freedom’s Path | Project Description
Page 10
The following unit features are planned:
Efficiency Units:
Kitchenettes with a sink, range, under counter refrigerator, and microwave
One Bedroom Units:
Full Kitchens with Energy Star appliances including a refrigerator (with an icemaker),
stove/oven, dishwasher, garbage disposal, and microwave
Both Unit Types:
Central heat and air-conditioning
Wall-to-wall carpeting in living room and bedrooms, vinyl floors in kitchens and
bathrooms
Wiring for high-speed internet access and cable television
The following community amenities are planned:
Community room with kitchen
Fitness center
Equipped Computer Center
TV Room
Covered pavilions
Picnic area with barbeque grills
Elevators
Central laundry areas
Freedom’s Path | Project Description
Page 11
Table 1 Freedom’s Path Detailed Project Summary
1. Other Proposed Uses
None.
2. Pertinent Information on Zoning and Government Review
We are not aware of any land use regulations that would affect the property.
3. Proposed Timing of Development
RPRG estimates Freedom’s Path will begin construction in 2015 with a date of completion/first move-
in in 2016. Based on this timeline, the subject property’s anticipated placed-in-service year is 2016.
Income Target Bed Bath Quantity Square Feet
Developer
Rent
Utility
Allowance
Gross Rent
50% AMI / PBRA Eff 1 5 525 $490* $0 $490
60% AMI / PBRA Eff 1 23 525 $588* $0 $588
60% AMI / PBRA 1 1 38 700 $630* $0 $630
50% AMI 1 1 12 700 $525 $0 $525
Total 78 637 $592
Rents include the cost of all utilities.
Maximum Gross Rent Allowed*
2015
2016
2016
Surface
None
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Owner
Owner
Owner
Elec
Owner
Owner
Source: Beneficial Communities
Freedom's Path Apartments
Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus
Augusta, Richmond County, GA 30904
Range
Construction Type
Adaptive Reuse
Parking Type
Design Characteristics (exterior)
Brick and Stucco
Parking Cost
Building Type
Mid-Rise
Community Amenities
Community Room with Kitchen, Fitness
Center, Equipped Computer Center, TV
Room, Covered Pavilions, Picnic Areas with
Barbeques, Central Laundry Areas, Elevator
Kitchen Amenities
Other:
Hot/Water
Electricity
Unit Features
Range/Oven, Refrigerator, Garbage
Disposal, Dishwasher, Microwave, Carpet,
Central Heat and Air Conditioning
Utilities Included
Water/Sewer
Trash
Heat
Heat Source
Dishwasher
Disposal
Refrigerator
Microwave
Date of First Move-In
Number of Stories
Three
Construction Finish Date
Project Information Additional Information
Number of Residential Buildings
Two
Construction Start Date
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 12
344
$*()1&&
1. Site Location
Freedom’s Path has two sites on the Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus in Augusta,
Richmond County, Georgia (Map 1, Figure 1). The sites are Building 76 in the southwestern corner of
the campus and Building 18 on the northern edge of campus. Relative to the surrounding area, the
Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center campus is located in west-central Augusta, approximately three
miles east of Interstate 520 and three miles southwest of downtown.
2. Existing Uses
The subject sites are Building 76 and the northern section of Building 18 in addition to their adjacent
parking lots. Both buildings are currently vacant and in significant disrepair. Building 76 is surrounded
by a combination of grassy land and medium to large trees and Building 18 is surrounded by grassy
land and parking lots. At the time of our site visit, we did not observe any environmental conditions
that would restrict the property’s use or impact its marketability.
3. Size, Shape, and Topography
Based on field observations, the land surrounding each subject site has a relatively flat topography
and roughly rectangular shape.
4. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Property
The Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center Campus is located in an established residential portion of
Augusta. Single-family detached homes surround the campus on all sides with commercial
development also common along Wrightsboro Road within one-half mile. The VA campus is located
within one-half mile of Augusta State College and Trinity Hospital. Additional non-residential uses in
the area include Daniel Field, a general aviation airport owned by the city, and Augusta Water Works’
reservoir.
5. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Properties
The land uses directly bordering Building 76 are as follows (Figure 4):
North: Parking lot / Maryland Avenue / Single-family detached homes
East: Parking lot / Building 7 / Building 111
South: Building 7 / Parking lots
West: Maryland Avenue / Single-family detached homes
The land uses directly bordering Building 18 are as follows (Figure 4):
North: Grassy land / Wrightsboro Road / Small businesses
East: Freedom Way / Fisher House
South: Parking lot / Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center
West: Parking lot / Facilities building
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 13
Map 1 Site Location
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 14
Figure 1 Satellite Image of Subject Property
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 15
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site – Building 76
View of building 76 facing northeast
View of building 76 facing north
View of building 76 facing east
View of driveway bordering building 76 to the west
View of building 76 facing west
View of building 76 facing southwest
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 16
Figure 3 Views of Subject Site – Building 18
View of building 18 facing northeast
View of building 18 facing southeast
View of building 18 facing south
View of building 18 facing south
View of building 18 facing southwest
View of northern side of building 18
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 17
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses
View of Charlie Norwood Medical Center
View of recreation fields east of building 76
View of single-family detached homes on Maryland Avenue
View of building 111 northwest of building 76
View of a single-family detached homes on Maryland
Avenue
View of a Fisher House to the east of Building 18
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 18
25!5+*()1&&
1. General Description of Neighborhood
The subject site’s immediate neighborhood is suburban in nature, dominated by lower-density
structures that are generally of an older vintage. Overall, residential land uses typically consist of
modest size single-family detached homes in good to fair condition and smaller multi-family rental
communities, several of which are funded through the HUD Section 8 or LIHTC programs. The largest
contingents of commercial development are located near Wrightsboro Road’s interchange with
Interstate 520 and along U.S. Highway 278 between Interstate 520 and U.S. Highway 25 (within two
to three miles of the subject sites).
2. Neighborhood Planning Activities
Significant planning or redevelopment efforts were not identified in close proximity to the subject
property. Several new (for-sale) residential communities were identified in the Augusta area;
however, none were in close proximity to the subject. Most new home development is occurring
west of Augusta in the Grovetown area.
3. Public Safety
Provided by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS), CrimeRisk data is a block-group level index that
measures the relative risk of crime compared to a national average. AGS analyzes known socio-
economic indicators for local jurisdictions reporting crime statistics to the FBI under the Uniform
Crime Reports (UCR) program. Based on detailed modeling of these relationships, CrimeRisk provides
a view of the risk of total crime and specific crime types at the block group level. In accordance with
reporting procedures used in UCR reports, aggregate indexes have been prepared for personal and
property crimes separately as well as a total index. However, these are un-weighted indexes, in that
a murder is weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysis provides
a useful measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used in conjunction with
other measures.
Map 2 displays the 2013 CrimeRisk Index for the census tracts in the general vicinity of the subject
property. The relative risk of crime is displayed in gradations from yellow (least risk) to red (most
risk). The subject site’s census tract is orange-red, indicating a crime risk (250-500) above the national
average (100). This crime risk is comparable to surrounding areas in Augusta from which the subject
sites are likely to draw the majority of tenants. Taking this into account along with the affordable
nature of Freedom’s Path, we do not expect crime or the perception of crime to negatively impact the
subject site’s marketability.
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 19
Map 2 2013 CrimeRisk, Subject Sites and Surrounding Areas
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 20
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1. Visibility
As both subject sites will be located directly on the VA Medical Center Campus, it will be highly visible
to its target population and will likely draw prospective tenants from medical and rehabilitation
facilities already on site. The subject sites will also benefit from regional awareness as part of the VA
Medical Center’s public profile.
2. Vehicular Access
The VA Medical Center Campus can be accessed from the main entrance off Wrightsboro Road via
Freedom Way. Given the traffic light at Freedom Way and Wrightsboro Road, the main entrance will
provide convenient access to the subject sites. From Wrightsboro Road, both Interstate 520 and
downtown Augusta are accessible within three miles. No problems with ingress/egress are
anticipated.
3. Availability of Public Transit
Augusta Public Transit provides comprehensive public transportation services throughout Augusta
and Richmond County. Services include fixed route bus service with nine routes, access to ADA
Paratransit service, and Richmond County Transit. A bus stop on Route 7 – Augusta Mall is located at
the entrance to the VA Medical Center Campus on Wrightsboro Road and is within a short walking
distance of both subject sites.
4. Availability of Inter-Regional Transit
Augusta is located on the south side of Interstate 20, which provides access to Atlanta (west) and
Columbia, South Carolina (east). Interstate 520 serves as a perimeter highway/by-pass and forms a
horseshoe on the south side of Interstate 20 with the western connection in Georgia and the eastern
connection in South Carolina. Major highways serving Augusta and Richmond County include U.S.
Highways 1, 25, 78, and 278.
Augusta is served by the Augusta Regional Airport, located on Highway 56, four miles south of
Interstate 520. The airport served approximately 500,000 passengers in 2011 and is served by Delta
and US Airways. Daily direct flights are available to Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Charlotte. Augusta
Regional Airport is within 10 miles of the subject sites.
5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned
Roadway Improvements under Construction and Planned
RPRG reviewed information from local stakeholders to assess whether any capital improvement
projects affecting road, transit, or pedestrian access to the subject property are currently underway
or likely to commence within the next few years. Observations made during the site visit contributed
to the process. Through this research, no major road construction projects were identified that would
directly impact the subject sites.
Transit and Other Improvements under Construction and/or Planned
None identified.
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 21
&+*$() %%$$.
1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Property
The appeal of any given community is often based in part on its proximity to those facilities and
services required on a daily basis. Key facilities and services and their driving distances from the
subject site are listed in Table 2. The location of those facilities is plotted on Map 3.
Table 2 Key Facilities and Services
2. Essential Services
Health Care
The closest medical center to the subject sites is the VA Medical Center, which will serve the proposed
tenant base of Freedom’s Path. The Charlie Norwood VA Medical Center is a two-division Medical
Center that provides tertiary care in medicine, surgery, neurology, psychiatry, rehabilitation medicine,
and spinal cord injury. The Uptown Division (adjacent to site) is authorized for 315 beds (68 psychiatry,
15 blind rehabilitation and 40 medical rehabilitation), a 132-bed Restorative/Nursing Home Care Unit
and a 60 unit domiciliary.
The closest general (non-VA) healthcare provider to the proposed sites is Trinity Hospital, a 231 bed
not-for-profit medical center located 0.5 mile east of the subject sites. With over 400 healthcare
professionals, Trinity Hospital offers a variety of medical treatment options and services including 24
hour emergency care, surgical services, outpatient care, and Obstetrics/Gynecology.
Outside of major healthcare providers, several smaller clinics and independent physicians are located
within one-half mile of the subject sites. The closest of these is Family Medicine Associates of Augusta,
located next to Trinity Hospital 0.5 mile to the east.
Establishment Type Address Distance
Norwood VA Medical Center Doctor/Medical 1 Freedom Way 0.1 mile
Norwood VA Medical Center Hospital 1 Freedom Way 0.1 mile
ATS Bus Stop Public Transportation 1 Freedom Way 0.1 mile
Bi-Lo Grocery 2803 Wrightsboro Rd. 0.2 mile
Rite Aid Pharmacy 2803 Wrightsboro Rd. 0.2 mile
Augusta Fire Department Fire 1898 Highland Ave. 0.3 mile
Trinity Hospital of Augusta Hospital 2260 Wrightsboro Rd. 0.5 mile
Family Medicine Associates of Augusta Doctor/Medical 1417 Pendleton Rd. 0.5 mile
Monte Sano Elementary School Public School 2164 Richmond Ave. 0.5 mile
Appleby Public Library Library 2260 Walton Way 1 mile
Langford Middle School Public School 3019 Walton Way Ext. 1.3 miles
Academy of Richmond County Public School 910 Russell St. 1.5 miles
Kmart General Retail 1647 Gordon Hwy. 2 miles
Wal-Mart General Retail 3338 Wrightsboro Rd. 2.5 miles
Augusta Mall Mall 3450 Wrightsboro Rd. 2.9 miles
Target General Retail 235 Robert C Daniel Jr Pky. 3.4 miles
Richmond County Sheriff's Department Police 401 Walton Way 3.9 miles
Source: Field and Internet Survey, RPRG, Inc.
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 22
Education
The subject sites are located in the Richmond County Public School District with an enrollment of
approximately 33,000 students. The Richmond County Public School System consists of 56 total
schools including 36 elementary schools, ten middle schools, and eight high schools. For non-
traditional education, the RCSS has six magnet schools and four alternative schools. The public
schools children living in the proposed development would attend Monte Sano Elementary (0.5 mile),
Langford Middle (1.3 miles), and the Academy of Richmond County (1.5 miles). Given the targeted
veteran population, it is unlikely any school age children will be residing at the subject properties.
The subject sites are also located in close proximity to numerous public and private institutions of
higher learning. Universities and Colleges in the Augusta area include Augusta State University,
Medical College of Georgia, Paine College, Savannah River College, Virginia College, and Augusta
Technical College.
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services
Freedom’s Path | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 23
3. Commercial Goods and Services
Convenience Goods
The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchase on
a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of convenience
goods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers, and
gasoline.
Freedom’s Path is located within one mile of several retailers, nearly all of which are situated along
Wrightsboro Road fronting the northern side of the VA Medical Center Campus. The closest retailers,
restaurants, and service providers to the subject sites are located in the Daniel Village Shopping
Center and include Bi-Lo, Rite-Aid, Nail Garden, and UPS Store (among others). At a distance of 0.2
mile, Bi-Lo and Rite-Aid are the closest full-service grocery store and pharmacy to the subject sites,
respectively.
Shoppers Goods
The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on an
infrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop. The category is sometimes called
“comparison goods.” Examples of shoppers’ goods are apparel and accessories, furniture and home
furnishings, appliances, jewelry, and sporting goods.
Augusta’s largest regional shopping area is centered on Augusta Mall located at the Wrightsboro Road
/ Interstate 520 interchange approximately three miles west of the site. Augusta Mall contains over
100 stores anchored by Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dillard’s, JCPenney, Macy’s, and Sears. Substantial
commercial development, including numerous big-box retailers, is also located throughout this area.
4. Location of Low Income Housing
A list and map of existing low-income housing in the Freedom’s Path Market Area are provided in the
Existing Low Income Rental Housing section of this report, starting on page 49.
$*#) &*
Overall, the proposed development of Freedom’s Path is compatible with surrounding land uses which
include other components of the Charlie Norwood Veterans Affairs Hospital, single-family detached
homes, and commercial uses. The sites are also located within one to two miles of community
amenities, including medical providers, restaurants, and shopping opportunities, as well as major
transportation arteries and downtown Augusta. Based on these factors, the sites for Freedom’s Path
are appropriate for their proposed use of housing for Veterans of the American Armed Services. No
land uses were identified at the time of the site visit that would negatively impact the sites’
marketability.
Freedom’s Path | Market Area Definition
Page 24
67
*$+ #$*
The primary market area for the proposed Freedom’s Path is defined as the geographic area from
which future residents of the community would primarily be drawn and in which competitive rental
housing alternatives are located. In defining the primary market area, RPRG sought to accommodate
the joint interests of conservatively estimating housing demand and reflecting the realities of the local
rental housing marketplace.
)*($*(.$(
The Freedom’s Path Market Area is roughly centered along Wrightsboro Road, including portions of
Richmond County and the City of Augusta most comparable with the area immediately surrounding
the subject sites. The vast majority of the Freedom’s Path Market Area is located inside the I-520
Bypass, although a portion of one census tract (105.04) extends west of this boundary. Given the
shape and size of this tract in addition to its proximity to the site, it was included so as not to be overly
restrictive. The older and established downtown district of Augusta was not included in the Freedom’s
Path Market Area; however, the site is located in a more suburban area surrounded by low-density
residential land uses.
As the subject property’s target market is veterans, residents are expected to be drawn from
throughout the city, county, and region. In order to provide an evaluation of local data and trends,
the Freedom’s Path Market Area was drawn based on the project being a traditional multi-family
rental community. Given the relatively conservative market area boundaries and specialized nature
of the target market, it is likely that the subject property will attract demand from the secondary
market area (Richmond County) up to and beyond the 15 percent accounted for in DCA’s demand
methodology. The boundaries of the Freedom’s Path Market Area and their approximate distance
from the subject property are:
North: Savannah River / South Carolina .................................... (1.9 miles)
East: State Highway 4 / 15
th
Street ......................................... (1.8 miles)
South: State Highway 4 / Deans Bridge Road ........................... (2.2 miles)
West: Interstate 520 ................................................................. (2.9 miles)
A map of this market area along with a list of 2010 Census tracts that comprise the market area are
depicted on the following page. As appropriate for this analysis, the Freedom’s Path Market Area is
compared to Richmond County, which is considered the secondary market area. Demand estimates,
however, are based solely on the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
Freedom’s Path | Market Area Definition
Page 25
Map 4 Freedom’s Path Market Area
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 26
8
*$+ #$*
This section of the report focuses primarily on economic trends and conditions in Richmond County,
the jurisdiction in which Freedom’s Path will be located. For purposes of comparison, economic
trends in Georgia and the nation are also discussed.
(!#&+*$'%)1'*$(*+*'%)1'*$
1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment
Richmond County’s labor force increased in six of eight years between 2000 and 2008 from 87,572
people to 91,619 people. Following declines in the labor force in four of the next five years and
through the first quarter of 2014, labor force has remained relatively unchanged since 2000 (Table 3).
2. Trends in County Unemployment Rate
Richmond County’s unemployment rate increased steadily from 2000 to 2008 with a range of 4.3
percent to 5.8 percent from 2000-2004 and 6.2 percent to 7.2 percent from 2005-2008. The
unemployment rate in Richmond County increased significantly in 2009 to 9.9 percent and continued
to rise until it peaked at 10.6 percent in 2010. Since its peak, the unemployment rate has decreased
in each of the past three years and has continued its decline in the first quarter of 2014 to 8.1 percent;
however, this is significantly higher than both the state and national unemployment rates of 7.2
percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.
'' $($*($$*&
According to 2008-2012 American Community Survey (ACS) data, 78.9 percent of workers residing in
the Freedom’s Path Market Area spent less than 25 minutes commuting to work (Table 4). Only 17.3
percent of workers spent 30 minutes or more commuting.
A large majority (84.1 percent) of all workers residing in the Freedom’s Path Market Area worked in
Richmond County while only 9.2 percent worked in another Georgia county. Approximately seven
percent of market area residents worked outside the state, most likely in South Carolina.
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 27
Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Table 4 2008-2012 Commuting Patterns, Freedom’s Path Market Area
Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Annual
Unemployment
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Q1
Labor Force 87,572 86,936 88,132 88,613 90,231 90,352 88,989 90,857 91,619 90,707 87,744 89,290 88,945 87,923 86,652
Employment 83,766 82,768 83,400 83,839 84,974 84,304 83,371 85,179 85,019 81,717 78,427 79,947 79,900 79,662 79,593
Unemployment 3,806 4,168 4,732 4,774 5,257 6,048 5,618 5,678 6,600 8,990 9,317 9,343 9,045 8,261 7,059
Unemployment Rate
Richmond County 4.3% 4.8% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8% 6.7% 6.3% 6.2% 7.2% 9.9% 10.6% 10.5% 10.2% 9.4% 8.1%
Georgia 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 6.3% 9.7% 10.2% 9.9% 9.0% 8.2% 7.2%
United States 4.0% 4.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.9%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1
Richmond County Georgia United States
Unemployment Rate
Travel Time to Work Place of Work
Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # %
Did not work at home:
16,940 98.6% Worked in state of residence: 16,020 93.3%
Less than 5 minutes 350 2.0% Worked in county of residence 14,444 84.1%
5 to 9 minutes 2,033 11.8%
Worked outside county of residence
1,576 9.2%
10 to 14 minutes 3,951 23.0% Worked outside state of residence 1,158 6.7%
15 to 19 minutes 4,549 26.5% Total 17,178 100%
20 to 24 minutes 2,674 15.6%
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012
25 to 29 minutes 415 2.4%
30 to 34 minutes 1,442 8.4%
35 to 39 minutes 134 0.8%
40 to 44 minutes 158 0.9%
45 to 59 minutes 671 3.9%
60 to 89 minutes 472 2.7%
90 or more minutes 91 0.5%
Worked at home 238 1.4%
Total 17,178
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012
In County
84.1%
Outside
County
9.2%
Outside
State
6.7%
2008-2012 Commuting Patterns
Freedom's Path Market Area
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 28
$9)(#'%)1'*$
1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment
Richmond County’s At-Place Employment decreased significantly from 2000 with net losses in eight
of 12 years between 2000 and 2012 (Figure 5). The net loss in jobs during this period was 8,732 jobs
or 8.2 percent. At-Place Employment increased slightly through the first three quarters of 2014 with
a net gain of 947 jobs.
Figure 5 At-Place Employment
US Depa rtment of Labor
106,981
104,693
103,406
104,086
104,392
105,357
103,939
102,242
101,082
98,601
97,613
98,589
98,249
99,196
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
At Place Employment
Total At Place Employment
-2,288
-1,287
680
306
965
-1,418
-1,697
-1,160
-2,481
-988
976
-340
947
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3
Change in At Place Employment
Annual Change in Richmond County At Place Employment
United States Annual Employment Growth Rate
Richmond County Annual Employment Growth Rate
Annual Change in At Place Employment
% Annual Growth
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 29
2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector
Due in large part to the U.S. Army base Fort Gordon, Government is the largest employment sector in
Richmond County, accounting for 23.8 percent of all jobs in the third quarter of 2013 compared to
just 15.7 percent of total employment nationally (Figure 6). Education-Health, Trade-Transportation-
Utilities, Professional-Business, and Leisure-Hospitality also contain significant employment shares in
Richmond County at 17.5 percent, 15.2 percent, 12.7 percent, and 11.5 percent respectively.
Compared to national figures, Richmond County has a significantly smaller percentage of its job base
in Natural Resources-Mining, Manufacturing, Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Financial Activities, and
Professional-Business.
Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector, 2013 Q3
Four employment sectors added jobs in Richmond County between 2001 and 2013 Q3 (Figure 7).
These sectors are Natural Resources-Mining (3.8 percent), Leisure-Hospitality (1.3 percent),
Education-Health (1.0 percent), and Professional-Business (0.9 percent). In terms of total jobs gained,
the annual increase in Education-Health, Professional-Business, and Leisure-Hospitality were the most
notable as these are three of the county’s largest sectors. Among sectors reporting annual job losses,
the largest on a percentage basis occurred in the Manufacturing (3.8 percent), Financial Activities (1.9
percent), and Construction (1.6 percent) sectors; however, these sectors combine for only 14.1
percent of the county’s total jobs.
Sector Jobs
Government 23,652
Federal 7,400
State 8,491
Local 7,761
Private Sector 75,476
Goods-Producing 11,459
Natural Resources-Mining 315
Construction 3,774
Manufacturing 7,370
Service Providing 64,017
Trade-Trans-Utilities 15,069
Information 2,098
Financial Activities 2,891
Professional-Business 12,633
Education-Health 17,340
Leisure-Hospitality 11,385
Other 2,601
Unclassified 68
Total Employment 99,196
US De partment of La bor
Employment by Industry Sector - 2013 (Q3)
/3:;
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3:;
=6;
8/;
/;
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/=;
=8;
8;
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15.7%
1.5%
4.3%
9.0%
19.0%
2.0%
5.7%
13.8%
15.1%
10.7%
3.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitalit y
Other
Employment by Sector 2013 Q3
United States
Richmond County
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 30
Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2001-2013 Q3
3. Major Employers
The largest employer in Richmond County is the U.S. Army base Fort Gordon, which employs nearly
20,000 people – more than four times larger than the second largest employer. Seven of the top ten
major employers are part of the education-health sector (Table 5). Richmond County’s major
employers are generally located within 10 miles of Augusta and the subject sites (Map 5).
Table 5 Major Employers, Augusta
9</;
3:;
9?;
93:;
9/;
9<=;
9>;
<>;
<;
3;
9<;
0.2%
1.5%
-1.1%
-2.5%
-0.1%
-2.3%
-0.1%
1.0%
2.6%
1.5%
-0.1%
-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Annualized Employment Change by Sector, 2001-2013 Q3
United States
Richmond County
Rank Name Industry Employment
1 U.S. Army Signal Center & Fort Gordon Military 19,844
2 Georgia Health Sciences University Education 4,656
3 Richmond County School System Education 4,418
4 University Hospital Healthcare 3,200
5 Georgia Health Sciences Hospitals Healthcare 3,054
6 Augusta-Richmond County Government 2,612
7 VA Medical Centers Healthcare 2,082
8 East Central Regional Hospital Healthcare 1,488
9 EZ GO Textron Manufacturing 1,277
10 Doctors Hospitals Healthcare 1,210
11 Covidien Manufacturing 850
12 International Paper Manufacturing 820
13 Kellogg's Manufacturing 535
14 FPL Food, LLC Manufacturing 500
15 Proctor & Gamble Manufacturing 450
Source: Augusta Economic Development Authority
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 31
Map 5 Major Employers
Freedom’s Path | Economic Content
Page 32
4. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions
The most significant economic expansions in the Augusta area are the National Security Agency and
the Army’s Cyber Center for Excellence, both headquartered at Fort Gordon. The National Security
Agency opened its Fort Gordon office in 2012 adding approximately 1,000 jobs to the already 3,000
employed by the NSA at Fort Gordon. Plans to create a centralized Army cyber command
headquarters at Fort Gordon were announced in early 2014 and are expected to create approximately
3,700 military, civilian, and contractor jobs by 2019. The addition of the cyber command center at
Fort Gordon is expected to offset the announcement of the countrywide cutback in United States
military personnel over the next five years. In addition to the two expansions at Fort Gordon, RPRG
identified five business expansions since 2012 in the Augusta area. The total jobs expected from all
seven expansions is approximately 5,500.
Limited layoff announcements were identified in the Augusta area. Six companies have announced
layoffs since January 2012 totaling 440 jobs lost.
Table 6 Announced Layoffs/Closures and Expansions, Richmond County, 2012-2014
*#) &*&*#()#*'#&
Richmond County’s economy is stable and has shown signs of recent growth. The county has
experienced net job growth and decreased unemployment rates over the past three years. Local
economics are not expected to negatively impact the ability of the subject property to lease its units..
Business Expansions - 2012 through 2014
Year Company Name New Jobs
2014 Sitel 200
2014 Cyber Center for Excellence - Fort Gordon 3,700
2013 Teleperformance 130
2013 Wow! Cable 120
2012 Starbucks 140
2012 National Security Agency 1,000
2012 Electrolux 225
Total 5,515
Source: Media Reports
Business Closures / Layoffs - 2012 through 2014
Date Company Name Lost Jobs
3/4/2013 Comcast 79
1/11/2013 Proctor & Gamble 130
8/10/2012 G4S Government Solutions, Inc. 31
7/3/2012 General Dynamics IT 70
2/24/2012 Food Lion 120
2/17/2012 Northrop Grumman 10
Total 440
Source: GA Department of Labor
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Page 33
?4
*$+ #$*(*+$5+)21
RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and
Richmond County using U.S. Census data and data from Esri, a national data vendor which prepares
small area estimates and projections of population and households. Building permit trends collected
from the HUD State of the Cities Data Systems (SOCDS) database were also considered.
*+&*% )($*(*+4 &5)+&
1. Recent Past Trends
Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the Freedom’s Path Market Area decreased
by 4.4 percent, from 47,307 to 45,211 people (Table 7). This equates to an annual rate of decline of
0.5 percent or 210 people. During the same time period, the number of households in the Freedom’s
Path Market Area fell by 2.3 percent, from 19,691 to 19,235 households for an annual decrease of 0.2
percent or 46 households.
Conversely, Richmond County experienced modest population and household growth during this
period. The population of Richmond County increased by 0.4 percent from 2000 to 2010 (less than
0.1 percent annually), while the number of households in Richmond County increased at an annual
rate of 0.4 percent.
2. Projected Trends
Based on Esri projections, the Freedom’s Path Market Area’s population increased by 804 people and
426 households between 2010 and 2014. RPRG further projects that the market area’s population
will increase by 423 people between 2014 and 2016, bringing the total population to 46,438 people
in 2016. This represents an annual increase of 0.5 percent or 212 persons. The household base is
projected to gain 112 new households per annum resulting in 19,886 households in 2016.
Population and household growth rates in Richmond County are projected to be slightly higher than
the Freedom’s Path Market Area. The county’s population and household base are expected to
increase at annual rates of 0.6 percent and 0.7 percent through 2016, respectively.
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Page 34
Table 7 Population and Household Projections
3. Building Permit Trends
RPRG examines building permit trends to help determine if the housing supply is meeting demand, as
measured by new households. From 2000 to 2009, 660 new housing units were authorized on average
each year in Richmond County compared to an annual increase of 300 households between the 2000
and 2010 census counts (Table 8). The disparity in household growth relative to units permitted
suggests an overbuilt market; however, these figures also do not take the replacement of existing
housing units into account.
Building permit activity has slowed significantly since 2006 (815 units permitted) with an average of
381 units permitted from 2007 to 2013. By structure type, 87 percent of all residential permits issued
in Richmond County were for single-family detached homes. Multi-family structures (5+ units)
accounted for 13 percent of units permitted while buildings with 2-4 units contain less than one
percent of permitted units.
Richmond County Freedom's Path Market Area
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Population Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
199,775 47,307
2010
200,549 774 0.4% 77 0.0% 45,211 -2,096 -4.4% -210 -0.5%
2014
205,063 4,514 2.3% 1,128 0.6% 46,015 804 1.8% 201 0.4%
2016
207,362 2,300 1.1% 1,150 0.6% 46,438 423 0.9% 212 0.5%
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Households Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
73,920 19,691
2010
76,924 3,004 4.1% 300 0.4% 19,235 -456 -2.3% -46 -0.2%
2014
79,095 2,171 2.8% 543 0.7% 19,661 426 2.2% 106 0.5%
2016
80,201 1,106 1.4% 553 0.7% 19,886 225 1.1% 112 0.6%
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.
300
543
553
-46
106
112
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-2010 2010-2014 2014-2016
Richmond County
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Annual Change in Number of Households, 2000 to 2016
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Pag e 35
Table 8 Building Permits by Structure Type, Richmond County
'2(%5#5((#$&$#&
1. Age Distribution and Household Type
Based on Esri estimates for 2014, the populations of the Freedom’s Path Market Area and Richmond
County are similar with median ages of 34 and 33, respectively (Table 9). Young Adults age 20-34
comprise the largest percentage of the population in both the Freedom’s Path Market Area and
Richmond County at 31.5 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively. Children/Youth account for 26.5
percent of the population in the market area and 27.2 percent of the population in the county. Of the
remaining age cohorts, the Freedom’s Path Market Area contains a slightly higher percentage of
seniors (age 62+) and a lower percentage of adults (age 35 to 61) relative to Richmond County.
Richmond County
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2000-
2013
Annual
Average
Single Family 483 548 565 664 829 604 815 448 194 391 371 267 367 445 6,991 499
Two Family 0 0 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 16 1
3 - 4 Family 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 32 2
5+ Family 42 196 323 224 0 89 0 0 56 98 7 0 0 0 1,035 74
Total 525 744 914 888 831 693 815 448 250 489 378 267 378 454 8,074 577
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.
525
744
914
888
831
693
815
448
250
489
378
267
378
454
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Units Permitted
Total Housing Units Permitted
2000 - 2013
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Pag e 36
Table 9 2014 Age Distribution
Approximately thirty-six percent of all households in the market area are single person households
compared to 30.4 percent in Richmond County. Households with at least two adults and no children
account for 35.3 percent and 36.0 percent of households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and
Richmond County, respectively. Under one-third (29.1 percent) of all households in the Freedom’s
Path Market Area contain children compared to 33.6 percent in Richmond County (Table 10).
Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type
# % # %
Children/Youth 55,817 27.2% 12,173 26.5%
Under 5 years 14,751 7.2% 3,463 7.5%
5-9 years 13,699 6.7% 3,075 6.7%
10-14 years 12,790 6.2% 2,692 5.9%
15-19 years 14,577 7.1% 2,943 6.4%
Young Adults 49,941 24.4% 10,687 23.2%
20-24 years 17,762 8.7% 3,780 8.2%
25-34 years 32,179 15.7% 6,907 15.0%
Adults 66,084 32.2% 14,510 31.5%
35-44 years 23,623 11.5% 4,940 10.7%
45-54 years 25,126 12.3% 5,538 12.0%
55-61 years 17,334 8.5% 4,033 8.8%
Seniors 33,221 16.2% 8,644 18.8%
62-64 years 7,429 3.6% 1,728 3.8%
65-74 years 15,023 7.3% 3,881 8.4%
75-84 years 7,777 3.8% 2,148 4.7%
85 and older 2,991 1.5% 888 1.9%
TOTAL 205,063 100% 46,015 100%
Median Age
Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.
33 34
Richmond
County
Freedom's
Path Market
Area
27.2%
24.4%
32.2%
16.2%
26.5%
23.2%
31.5%
18.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Child/Youth
Young
Adults
Adults
Seniors
% Pop
Type
2014 Age Distribution
Freedom's Path Market Area
Richmond County
# % # %
Married w/Chil dren 11,566 15.0% 1,946 10.1%
Other w/ Children 14,291 18.6% 3,654 19.0%
Households w/ Children 25,857 33.6% 5,600 29.1%
Married w/o Children 15,781 20.5% 3,372 17.5%
Other Family w/o Children 7,248 9.4% 1,995 10.4%
Non-Family w/o Children 4,638 6.0% 1,420 7.4%
Households w/o Children 27,667 36.0% 6,787 35.3%
Singles Living Alone 23,400 30.4% 6,848 35.6%
Singles 23,400 30.4% 6,848 35.6%
Total 76,924 100% 19,235 100%
Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.
Households by Household
Type
Richmond County
Freedom's Path
Market Area
30.4%
36.0%
33.6%
35.6%
35.3%
29.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Singles
HH w/o Children
HH w/ Children
% Households
Household Type
2010 Households by Household Type
Freedom's Path Market Area
Richmond County
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Pag e 37
2. Renter Household Characteristics
Over forty-seven percent of the households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area rented in 2000
compared to 42.0 percent in Richmond County. Both the market area and county lost owner
households but gained renter households between the 2000 and 2010 census counts. As a result,
renter percentages increased by 2010 to 53.3 percent in the market area and 45.8 percent in the
county (Table 11). Renter percentages are expected to continue to increase in both areas and are
projected at 56.2 percent in the market area and 48.5 percent in the county in 2016.
Table 11 Households by Tenure
The market area’s renters are slightly older than the county’s (Table 12). Approximately thirty-nine
percent of renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area are under the age of 35, compared
to 42.0 percent in the county. Renter households age 35-54 account for 34.0 percent of renter
households in the market area and 33.7 percent of renter households in the county. Older adults and
seniors age 55 and older account for 26.9 percent of all renters in the market area and 24.3 percent
of the renters in the county.
Richmond County
2000
2010
Change 2000-2010
2014
2016
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 42,840 58.0% 41,682 54.2% -1,158 -38.5% 41,209 52.1% 41,301 51.5%
Renter Occupied 31,080 42.0% 35,242 45.8% 4,162 138.5% 37,886 47.9% 38,900 48.5%
Total Occupied 73,920 100% 76,924 100% 3,004 100% 79,095 100% 80,201 100%
Total Vacant 8,392 9,407 9,672 9,808
TOTAL UNITS 82,312 86,331 88,767 90,009
Freedom's Path
Market Area
2000 2010 Change 2000-2010 2014 2016
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 10,385 52.7% 8,982 46.7% -1,403 307.7% 8,745 44.5% 8,719 43.8%
Renter Occupied 9,306 47.3% 10,253 53.3% 947 -207.7% 10,916 55.5% 11,166 56.2%
Total Occupied 19,691 100% 19,235 100% -456 100% 19,661 100% 19,886 100%
Total Vacant 2,691 2,741 2,802 2,834
TOTAL UNITS 22,382 21,976 22,462 22,719
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000, 2010; Esri, RPRG, Inc.
52.7%
46.7%
307.7%
44.5%
43.8%
47.3%
53.3%
55.5%
56.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2000 - 2010
New Households
2014 2016
% of All Households
Renter
Occupied
Owner
Occupied
Freedom's Path Market Area
Actual Rentership Rate in 2000 and 2010 and Projected Rentership Rate for 2014 and 2016
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Pag e 38
Table 12 Renter Households by Age of Householder
Nearly two-thirds (65.4 percent) of all renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area contain
one or two persons compared to 61.1 percent in Richmond County (Table 13). An additional 15.8
percent of Freedom’s Path Market Area renter households and 16.6 percent of Richmond County
renter households contain three persons. Households with four or more persons account for 18.8
percent and 22.3 percent of renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and Richmond
County, respectively.
Table 13 2010 Renter Households by Household Size
3. Income Characteristics
Based on Esri estimates, the Freedom’s Path Market Area’s 2014 median income of $29,283 is $7,036
or 19.4 percent lower than the $36,319 median in Richmond County (Table 14). Forty-four percent of
the households earn less than $25,000 in the Freedom’s Path Market Area including 29.0 percent
earning less than $15,000. Approximately 40.0 percent of the households in the Freedom’s Path
Market Area earn $25,000 to $74,999 compared to 46.0 percent in Richmond County.
Based on the ACS data income projections, the breakdown of tenure, and household estimates, RPRG
estimates that the median income of renters in the Freedom’s Path Market Area as of 2014 is $19,481
(Table 15). This renter median income is 42.7 percent of the median among owner households of
$45,577. Among renter households, 60.1 percent earn less than $25,000 including 41.8 percent that
earn less than $15,000.
Renter
Households
Richmond
County
Freedom's
Path Market
Area
Age of HHldr # % # %
15-24 years 4,519 11.9% 1,382 12.7%
1
25-34 years 11,403 30.1% 2,892 26.5%
2
35-44 years 6,924 18.3% 1,849 16.9%
2
45-54 years 5,850 15.4% 1,859 17.0%
1
55-64 years 4,920 13.0% 1,637 15.0%
65-74 years 2,498 6.6% 800 7.3%
1
75+ years 1,773 4.7% 497 4.6%
2
Total 37,886 100% 10,916 100%
Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
11.9%
30.1%
18.3%
15.4%
13.0%
6.6%
4.7%
12.7%
26.5%
16.9%
17.0%
15.0%
7.3%
4.6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
% Households
Age of Householder
2014 Renter Households by Age of
Householder
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond County
Richmond
County
Freedom's
Path Market
Area
# % # %
1-person hhld 12,485 35.4% 3,967 38.7%
2-person hhld 9,062 25.7% 2,742 26.7%
3-person hhld 5,837 16.6% 1,616 15.8%
4-person hhld 4,065 11.5% 998 9.7%
5+-person hhld 3,793 10.8% 930 9.1%
TOTAL 35,242 100% 10,253 100%
Source: 2010 Census
Renter
Occupied
35.4%
25.7%
16.6%
11.5%
10.8%
38.7%
26.7%
15.8%
9.7%
9.1%
0% 20% 40% 60%
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
5+-person
% hhlds
Hous ehold Size
2010 Persons per Household Renter
Occupied Units
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond County
Freedom’s Path | Demographic Analysis
Pag e 39
Table 14 2014 Household Income
Table 15 2014 Income by Tenure
# % # %
less than $15,000 16,754 21.2% 5,705 29.0% 2
$15,000 $24,999 10,439 13.2% 2,944 15.0% 3
$25,000 $34,999 11,312 14.3% 2,759 14.0% 4
$35,000 $49,999 11,842 15.0% 2,569 13.1% 5
$50,000 $74,999 13,204 16.7% 2,484 12.6% 6
$75,000 $99,999 7,272 9.2% 1,387 7.1% 7
$100,000 $149,999 5,711 7.2% 1,083 5.5% 8
$150,000 Over 2,561 3.2% 729 3.7% 9
Total 79,095 100% 19,661 100% 10
Median Income $36,319 $29,283
Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond
County
Estimated 2014
Household Income
21.2%
13.2%
14.3%
15.0%
16.7%
9.2%
7.2%
3.2%
29.0%
15.0%
14.0%
13.1%
12.6%
7.1%
5.5%
3.7%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
<$15K
$15-$24K
$25-$34K
$35-$49K
$50-$74K
$75-$99K
$100-$149K
$150+k
% Households
Household Income
2014 Household Income
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond County
# % # %
less than $15,000
4,560 41.8% 1,144 13.1%
2
$15,000 $24,999
2,003 18.3% 941 10.8%
3
$25,000 $34,999
1,445 13.2% 1,314 15.0%
4
$35,000 $49,999
1,189 10.9% 1,380 15.8%
5
$50,000 $74,999
1,045 9.6% 1,439 16.5%
6
$75,000 $99,999
557 5.1% 830 9.5%
7
$100,000 $149,999
107 1.0% 976 11.2%
8
$150,000 over
9 0.1% 720 8.2%
9
Total 10,916 100% 8,745 100%
10
Median Income
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
Freedom's Path
Market Area
$19,481
$45,577
Renter
Households
Owner
Households
4,560
2,003
1,445
1,189
1,045
557
107
9
1,144
941
1,314
1,380
1,439
830
976
720
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
<$15K
$15-$24.9K
$25-$34.9K
$35-$49.9K
$50-$74.9K
$75-$99.9K
$100-$150K
$150k+
# of Households
Hous ehold Income
2014 Household Income by Tenure
Owner Households
Renter Households
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Pag e 40
=4
*$+ #$*(*+ #&*'($*
This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of rental housing in the Freedom’s
Path Market Area. We pursued several avenues of research in an attempt to identify multifamily
rental projects that are in the planning stages or under construction in the Freedom’s Path Market
Area. We spoke to planning officials with the Augusta planning and development department and
reviewed the list of recent LIHTC awards from DCA. The rental survey was conducted in May 2014.
(.$(4 &*2$#.
Based on the 2008-2012 ACS survey, multi-family structures (i.e., buildings with five or more units)
accounted for 39.0 percent and 37.5 percent of rental units in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and
Richmond County, respectively. Single-family detached homes and mobile homes comprise 40.0
percent of the rental stock in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and 41.2 percent in Richmond County
(Table 16). The vast majority of owner occupied units in both the Freedom’s Path Market Area and
Richmond County consist of single-family detached homes or mobile homes.
The housing stock in the Freedom’s Path Market Area is older than in Richmond County, overall.
Among rental units, the median year built was 1971 in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and 1976 in
Richmond County (Table 17). The Freedom’s Path Market Area’s owner occupied housing stock is
significantly older with a median year built of 1958 versus 1976 in Richmond County. Only 5.6 percent
of the renter occupied units in the Freedom’s Path Market Area were built since 2000. Over two-thirds
(68.8 percent) of renter occupied units in the Freedom’s Path Market Area were built prior to 1980.
According to 2008-2012 ACS data, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area was $101,417, which is $2,558 or 2.5 percent lower than the Richmond
County median of $103,976 (Table 18). Approximately sixty-eight percent of market area homes are
valued at under $150,000. ACS estimates home values based upon values from homeowners’
assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a less accurate and reliable
indicator of home prices in an area than actual sales data, but offers insight of relative housing values
among two or more areas.
Table 16 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure
Richmond County
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond County
Freedom's Path
Market Area
# % # % # % # %
1, detached 35,118 85.4% 8,294 92.8% 1, detached 10,929 34.0% 3,345 37.3%
1, attached 2,067 5.0% 267 3.0% 1, attached 1,366 4.2% 144 1.6%
2 75 0.2% 25 0.3% 2 1,681 5.2% 545 6.1%
3-4 259 0.6% 24 0.3% 3-4 3,779 11.8% 1,195 13.3%
5-9 187 0.5% 22 0.2% 5-9 6,971 21.7% 2,016 22.5%
10-19 86 0.2% 43 0.5% 10-19 2,702 8.4% 659 7.3%
20+ units 84 0.2% 28 0.3% 20+ units 2,388 7.4% 824 9.2%
Mobile home 3,248 7.9% 239 2.7% Mobile home 2,330 7.2% 243 2.7%
Boat, RV, Van 4 0.0% 0 0.0% Boat, RV, Van 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
TOTAL 41,128 100% 8,942 100% TOTAL 32,146 100% 8,971 100%
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012 Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012
Owner
Occupied
Renter
Occupied
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Pag e 41
Table 17 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure
Table 18 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock
Richmond
County
Freedom's
Path Market
Area
Richmond
County
Freedom's
Path Market
Area
# % # % # % # %
2010 or later 194 0.5% 14 0.2% 2010 or later 297 0.9% 10 0.1%
2000 to 2009 5,304 12.9% 364 4.1% 2000 to 2009 4,128 12.8% 495 5.5%
1990 to 1999 6,616 16.1% 375 4.2% 1990 to 1999 3,527 11.0% 647 7.2%
1980 to 1989 6,068 14.8% 617 6.9% 1980 to 1989 5,880 18.3% 1,651 18.4%
1970 to 1979 7,374 17.9% 1,163 13.0% 1970 to 1979 7,236 22.5% 1,801 20.1%
1960 to 1969 6,245 15.2% 1,734 19.4% 1960 to 1969 3,853 12.0% 1,419 15.8%
1950 to 1959 4,576 11.1% 1,724 19.3% 1950 to 1959 3,379 10.5% 1,128 12.6%
1940 to 1949 2,199 5.3% 1,267 14.2% 1940 to 1949 1,483 4.6% 658 7.3%
1939 or earlier 2,552 6.2% 1,684 18.8% 1939 or earlier 2,363 7.4% 1,162 13.0%
TOTAL 41,128 100% 8,942 100% TOTAL 32,146 100% 8,971 100%
MEDIAN YEAR
BUILT
1976 1958
MEDIAN YEAR
BUILT
1976 1971
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012 Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012
Owner
Occupied
Renter
Occupied
# % # %
less than $60,000 6,245 15.5% 1,734 19.8%
$60,000 $99,999 12,914 32.0% 2,574 29.5%
$100,000 $149,999 10,709 26.5% 1,629 18.6%
$150,000 $199,999 5,013 12.4% 621 7.1%
$200,000 $299,999 2,963 7.3% 829 9.5%
$300,000 $399,999 1,037 2.6% 543 6.2%
$400,000 $499,999 608 1.5% 315 3.6%
$500,000 $749,999 396 1.0% 253 2.9%
$750,000 over 486 1.2% 241 2.8%
Total 40,371 100% 8,739 100%
Median Value
Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey
2008-2012 Home
Value
Richmond County
Freedom's Path
Market Area
$103,976
$101,417
15.5%
32.0%
26.5%
12.4%
7.3%
2.6%
1.5%
1.0%
1.2%
19.8%
29.5%
18.6%
7.1%
9.5%
6.2%
3.6%
2.9%
2.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
< $60K
$60-$99K
$100-149k
$150-$199K
$200-$299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
$750>
% of Owner Occupied Dwellings
Home Value ($000s)
2008-2012 Home Value
Freedom's Path
Market Area
Richmond
County
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 2
1'%$$*$()'' *$&
1.
Introduction to the Age-Restricted Rental Housing Survey
For the purposes of this analysis, RPRG surveyed 17 general occupancy rental communities in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area. Of these 17 properties, three were financed by Low Income Housing
Tax Credits (LIHTC), two were funded through the HUD Section 8 program, and 12 are market rate.
As Freedom’s Path will contain project based rental assistance (PBRA) on 66 units, the two HUD
Section 8 communities, both of which serve disabled households, are considered comparable for the
purposes of this report; however, these communities are shown separately and not included in the
analysis of rents as they are not reflective of current market conditions. Profile sheets with detailed
information on each surveyed community, including photographs, are attached as Appendix 7. The
location of each community relative to the subject site is shown on Map 6.
2.
Location
Map 6 shows the location of all of the surveyed rental communities. All communities are located
throughout west Augusta and within two to three miles of the subject site.
Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 3
3.
Age of Communities
Combined, the surveyed LIHTC and market rate rental communities reported an average year built of
1976 with the newest property constructed in 2011. By comparison, the two deeply subsidized HUD
Section 8 communities are significantly newer with an average year built of 1996.
4.
Structure Type
The structure type and building characteristics of the market area’s rental stock includes a mixture of
garden-style apartments, single-family detached homes, townhomes, and two-story walk-ups.
Exterior features are generally dependent on the age and price point of the communities with newer
market rate and recently constructed / rehabbed LIHTC communities being the most attractive.
5.
Size of Communities
The surveyed rental communities range in size from five units (Independent Living Horizons III) to 324
units (Georgian Place) with an overall average size of 125 units among market rate and LIHTC
communities. The three LIHTC properties are similar to the general rental market as a whole with an
average community size of 124 units while the two deeply subsidized properties contain just five and
nine units each.
6.
Vacancy Rates
Excluding Sierra Pointe which refused to report occupancy, the 14 surveyed LIHTC and market rate
rental communities combine to offer 1,673 units, of which 56 or 3.3 percent were reported vacant
(Table 19). Among the three LIHTC properties, 26 of 372 units were available at the time of our survey
for a vacancy rate of 7.0 percent; however, all 26 vacant units were at one community (Magnolia
Park). Both remaining LIHTC communities were 100 percent occupied with waiting lists. In addition,
both deeply subsidized rental communities were fully occupied with waiting lists (Table 20).
7.
Rent Concessions
Only three of the 17 properties surveyed were offering rent concessions or incentives at the time of
our survey.
8.
Absorption History
None of the surveyed rental communities in the Freedom’s Path Market Area were able to provide
historic absorption rates or lease-up data.
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 4
Table 19 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities
Table 20 Rental Summary, Surveyed Deep Subsidy Communities
*()1&&*$()#*2(*++ #$
1.
Payment of Utility Costs
At 12 of the 17 properties surveyed, utility expenses associated with water/sewer and trash removal
are the responsibility of the landlord and included in rent, while the balance of utility expenses
Map Year Year
Structure
Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR
# Community Built Rehab Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive
Subject* 50% AMI / PBRA
Reuse 5
Subject* 60% AMI / PBRA
Reuse 61 $630**
Subject* 50% AMI Reuse 12 $525
1 Champion Pines 1987 Gar 220 13 5.9% $660 $793 None
2 Forest Hills 1945 1995 Gar 72 0 0.0% $605 $698 None
3 Georgian Place 1968 Gar/TH 324 6 1.9% $549 $651 None
4 Oak Hill 1974 Gar 120 5 4.2% $513 $613 None
5 Aumond Villa 1965 Gar 88 3 3.4% $610 1 month free
6 Willow Ridge 1968 2009 TH 120 3 2.5% $605 $200 off lease.
7 Vintage Creek 1972 Gar 104 0 0.0% $555 $595 None
8 Forest Brook* 1984 1999 Gar 161 0 0.0% $450 $538 None
9 Woodhaven 1979 2013 Gar 152 0 0.0% $510 None
10 Baywood 1985 TH 17 0 0.0% $525 None
11 Highland Terrace 1985 TH 32 0 0.0% $525 None
12 Singleton 1985 TH 52 0 0.0% $525 None
13 Magnolia Park* 1969 1996 Gar/TH 171 26 15.2% $450 $512 None
14 The Crest at Edinburgh* 2011 SF 40 0 0.0% None
15 Sierra Pointe 1969 2007 Gar 200 N/A N/A $499 $499 $150 off lease.
Total 1,873
Reporting Total 1,673 56 3.3%
Average 1976 125 $532 $591
LIHTC Total 372 26 7.0%
LIHTC Average 1988 124 $450 $525
Tax Credit Communities*
Subject - Maximum Gross Rent Allowable**
(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
Map Year
Structure
Total Vacant Vacancy
# Community Built Type Units Units Rate Waitlist
16
Independent Living Horizons III**
1996 Gar 5 0 0.0% Yes
17 Independent Living Horizons II** 1996 Gar 9 0 0.0% Yes
Total/Average 1996 14 0 0.0%
Deep Subsidy Communities**
(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 5
(cooking, heat, hot water, electricity) are the responsibility of the tenant (Table 21). Of the remaining
properties, three include the cost of trash removal only and the two deeply subsidized communities
include all utilities in the rent.
2.
Unit Features
Fourteen surveyed communities include dishwashers and 12 communities include washer/dryer
connections in some or all units including one community, Aumond Villa, that includes stackable
washer and dryers. Four properties provide microwaves in at least select units. Patios/balconies,
garbage disposals, and central laundry facilities are also available at most of the surveyed rental stock
(Table 21). Freedom’s Path’s proposed unit features, which will include dishwashers, garbage
disposals, microwaves, and central laundry areas (community-wide), will be competitive with the
surveyed rental stock and are appropriate for a LIHTC community.
3.
Parking
All surveyed rental communities include free surface parking as their standard parking option.
4.
Community Amenities
The rental communities surveyed in the Freedom’s Path Market Area offer few, if any, recreational
amenities. The most common include a playground (7 properties), swimming pool (6 properties), and
community room/club house (4 properties) (Table 22). Freedom’s Path will contain a community
room with kitchen, fitness center, equipped computer center, TV room, covered pavilions, and picnic
areas with barbeque grills, which will be competitive in the market place and well received by the
target market.
Table 21 Utilities and Unit Features – Surveyed Rental Communities
Community
Heat
Type
Heat
Hot Water
Cooking
Electric
Water
Trash
Dish-
washer
Micro-
wave Parking
In-Unit
Laundry
Subject
Elec
Std
Std
Surface
Central
Champion Pines Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Forest Hills Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Georgian Place Elec
Select
Surface
Hook Ups
Oak Hill Elec
Std
Surface
Aumond Villa Elec
Std
Surface
Std - Stacked
Willow Ridge Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Vintage Creek Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Forest Brook Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Woodhaven Elec
Surface
Baywood Elec
Std Std
Surface
Select Units
Highland Terrace Elec
Select Std
Surface
Select
Singleton Elec
Std Std
Surface
Magnolia Park Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
The Crest at Edinburgh Elec
Std
Surface
Hook Ups
Sierra Pointe Elec
Std
Surface
Independent Living Horizons III Elec
Surface
Independent Living Horizons II Elec
Select
Surface
Hook Ups
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
Utilities Included in Rent
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 6
Table 22 Community Amenities – Surveyed Rental Communities
5.
Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type
Excluding deeply subsidized communities, unit distributions were available for 84.4 percent of the
1,873 units surveyed in the Freedom’s Path Market Area. Among the 15 communities surveyed, one
offers efficiency units, nine offer one bedroom units, 13 offer two bedroom units, and five offer three
bedroom units. On a percentage basis, 26.5 percent of units contain one bedroom, 64.3 percent
contain two bedrooms, and 9.2 percent contain three bedrooms. The only community offering
efficiency units did not report a unit mix breakdown.
6.
Effective Rents
Unit rents presented in Table 23 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents.
To arrive at effective rents, we apply downward adjustments to street rents at some communities in
order to control for current rental incentives. The net rents further reflect adjustments to street rents
to equalize the impact of utility expenses across complexes. Specifically, the net rents represent the
hypothetical situation where all utility costs are included in monthly rents at all communities. As the
subject property includes the cost of all utilities, the surveyed communities’ rents were adjusted
downward by $88 for efficiency units, $105 for one bedroom units, $130 for two bedroom units, and
$160 for three bedroom units in order to make an accurate comparison with the proposed rents.
Efficiency
units offered at Champion Pines have an effective rent of $653 per month. With a
unit size of 500 square feet, the resulting net rent per square foot is $1.31.
Community
Clubhouse
Fitness
Room
Pool
Hot Tub
Sauna
Playground
Tennis Court
Business
Center
Subject
Champion Pines
Forest Hills
Georgian Place
Oak Hill
Aumond Villa
Willow Ridge
Vintage Creek
Forest Brook
Woodhaven
Baywood
Highland Terrace
Singleton
Magnolia Park
The Crest at Edinburgh
Sierra Pointe
Independent Living Horizons III
Independent Living Horizons II
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 7
One-bedroom
effective rents averaged $633 per month. The average one-bedroom square
footage was 681 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.93. The range for
one-bedroom effective rents was $555 to $725.
Two-bedroom
effective rents averaged $716 per month. The average two-bedroom square
footage was 971 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.74. The range for
two-bedroom effective rents was $616 to $883.
Three-bedroom
effective rents averaged $810 per month. The average three-bedroom
square footage was 1,271 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.64. The
range for three-bedroom effective rents was $653 to $944.
Proposed rents for the units with PBRA at the subject property are positioned below the overall
market average for both efficiency and one bedroom units. It should be noted that the proposed
rents for the 66 units with PBRA are equal to the maximum gross rents allowed; however, tenants in
these units will pay a percentage of their income and not the proposed contract rent. The rent for
the 12 fifty percent one bedroom units without PBRA is the lowest in market area.
Table 23 Salient Characteristics, Surveyed Rental Communities
7.
DCA Average Market Rent
To determine average “market rents” as outlined in DCA’s 2014 Market Study Manual, market rate
rents were averaged at the most comparable communities to the proposed Freedom’s Path. These
include all communities with market rate rents in the Freedom’s Path Market Area. It is important to
note, these “average market rents” are not adjusted to reflect differences in age, unit size, or
amenities relative to the subject property. As such, a negative rent differential does
not
necessary
indicate the proposed rents are unreasonable or unachievable in the market.
Total Efficiency Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Community Type Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
Subject* 50% AMI / PBRA Reuse 5 5 $490** 525 $0.93
Subject* 60% AMI / PBRA Reuse 61 23 $588** 525 $1.12 38
$630**
700 $0.90
Subject* 50% AMI Reuse 12 12 $525 700 $0.75
Champion Pines Gar 220 $653 500 $1.31 $725 700 $1.04 $883 1,000 $0.88
Forest Hills Gar 72 $710 714 $0.99 $828 1,050 $0.79
Georgian Place Gar/TH 324 80 $654 715 $0.91 196 $781 1,005 $0.78 48 $944 1,150 $0.82
Willow Ridge TH 120 120 $755 1,010 $0.75
Vintage Creek Gar 104 24 $675 884 $0.76 80 $745 984 $0.76
Oak Hill Gar 120 76 $618 640 $0.96 44 $743 1,010 $0.74
Aumond Villa Gar 88 44 $689 1,050 $0.66 44 $811 1,410 $0.58
Forest Brook* 60% AMI Gar 161 57 $555 580 $0.96 96 $668 878 $0.76 8 $835 1,250 $0.67
Woodhaven Gar 152 152 $615 567 $1.08
Baywood TH 17 17 $655 940 $0.70
Highland Terrace TH 32 32 $655 940 $0.70
Singleton TH 52 52 $655 940 $0.70
Magnolia Park* 60% AMI Gar/TH 171 13 $555 710 $0.78 152 $642 989 $0.65 6 $810 1,100 $0.74
The Crest at Edinburgh* 60% AMI SF 32 32 $807 1,358 $0.59
Sierra Pointe Gar 200 17 $591 620 $0.95 183 $616 830 $0.74
The Crest at Edinburgh* 50% AMI SF 8 8 $653 1,358 $0.48
Total/Average 1,873 $653 500 $1.31 $633 681 $0.93 $716 971 $0.74 $810 1271 $0.64
Unit Distribution 1,581 0 419 1,016 146
% of Total 84.4% 0.0% 26.5% 64.3% 9.2%
Tax Credit Communities*
Rent adjusted $40 for including cable
Subject - Maximum Gross Rent Allowable**
(1) Rent is adjusted to include all utilities and incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 8
The average “market rents” among comparable communities are $653 for an efficiency unit (based
on one property) and $655 for a one bedroom unit (Table 24). Compared to average market rents,
the subject property’s proposed rents have rent advantages for all unit sizes and AMI levels (Table
25). It should be noted that the proposed rents for the 66 units with PBRA are equal to the maximum
gross rents allowed; however, tenants in these units will pay a percentage of their income and not the
proposed contract rent. As units at Freedom’s Path will also be fully furnished, they will provide
additional value to prospective tenants beyond what is accounted for in this analysis.
Table 24 Average Rents, Comparable Properties
Table 25 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary
*$&
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various
sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, Lois Schmidt
with the Augusta Planning and Development Department, and Sevi Roberson with the Augusta
Housing Authority.
Total Efficiency Units One Bedroom Units
Community Type Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
Subject* 50% AMI / PBRA Reuse 5 $490** 525 $0.93
Subject* 60% AMI / PBRA Reuse 49 $588** 525 $1.12
$630**
700 $0.90
Subject* 50% AMI Reuse 12 $525 700 $0.86
Champion Pines Gar 220 $653 500 $1.31 $725 700 $1.04
Forest Hills Gar 72 $710 714 $0.99
Georgian Place Gar/TH 324 $654 715 $0.91
Vintage Creek Gar 104 $675 884 $0.76
Oak Hill Gar 120 $618 640 $0.96
Woodhaven Gar 152 $615 567 $1.08
Sierra Pointe Gar 200 $591 620 $0.95
Total/Average 1,192 $653 500 $1.31 $655 691 $0.95
Rent adjusted $40 for including cable
Subject - Maximum Gross Rent Allowable**
(1) Rent is adjusted to include all utilities and incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2014.
(2(.$*$& @?83 @?88
!!
"#$%
&
!
"#$%
&
!
"#$%
())*$+(*$(2 >8;
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 9
)$9(')1%)*
Based on conversations with city planning officials, no new rental communities were identified in the
planning and/or construction stages in the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
4 &*2 $5$1($(
Per Sevi Roberson at the Augusta Housing Authority, the housing authority operates an estimated
1,823 public housing units and holds a waiting lists of 5,922 households. The Augusta Housing
Authority also manages approximately 3,600 section 8 vouchers and holds a waiting list of 4,789
households.
4A&$*2*#'*$()4 &*2
Table 26 and Map 7 show the location of the subject sites in relation to existing low-income rental
housing properties, including those with tax credits. All LIHTC general occupancy communities were
surveyed and included in this report.
Table 26 Subsidized Communities, Freedom’s Path Market Area
Property Subsidy Type Address Distance
Independent Living Horizons II Section 8 Disabled 2038 Fenwick St. 1.9 miles
Independent Living Horizons III Section 8 Disabled 2208 Walden Dr. 0.7 mile
Augusta Properties Section 8 Family 1901 Broad St. 2.5 miles
Mount Zion Section 8 Family 2445 Amsterdam Dr. 4.1 miles
Trinity Manor Section 8 Family 2375 Barton Chapel Rd. 3.9 miles
Bon Air Section 8 Senior 2101 Walton Way 1.4 miles
The Terrace at Edinburgh Tax Credit Senior 2515 Kennedy Dr. 2 miles
The Crest at Edinburgh Tax Credit Family 2515 Kennedy Dr. 2 miles
Forest Brook Tax Credit Family 3122 Damascus Rd. 1.2 miles
Magnolia Park Tax Credit Family 2133 Vandivere Rd. 0.7 mile
Source: GA DCA, HUD, USDA
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 5 0
Map 7 Subsidized Rental Communities
'%(#$!(*+*+(#(*$#)&+4'&
Based on field observations, limited abandoned / vacant single and multi-family homes exist in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area. In addition, to understand the state of foreclosure in the community
around the subject sites, we tapped data available through RealtyTrac, a web site aimed primarily at
assisting interested parties in the process of locating and purchasing properties in foreclosure and at
risk of foreclosure. RealtyTrac classifies properties in its database into several different categories,
among them three that are relevant to our analysis: 1.) pre-foreclosure property – a property with
Freedom’s Path | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 5 1
loans in default and in danger of being repossessed or auctioned, 2.) auction property – a property
that lien holders decide to sell at public auctions, once the homeowner’s grace period has expired, in
order to dispose of the property as quickly as possible, and 3.) bank-owned property – a unit that has
been repossessed by lenders. We included properties within these three foreclosure categories in
our analysis. We queried the RealtyTrac database for ZIP code 30904 in which the subject property
will be located and the broader areas of Augusta, Richmond County, Georgia, and the United States
for comparison purposes.
Our RealtyTrac search revealed March 2014 foreclosure rates of 0.06 percent in the subject property’s
ZIP Code (30904), 0.09 percent in Augusta, and .11 percent in Richmond County. The state and
national foreclosure rates were 0.09 percent (Table 27). The number of foreclosures in the subject
property’s ZIP Code ranged from four to 20 units over the past year. The ZIP Code has averaged
approximately 11 foreclosures per month over the past year.
While the conversion of foreclosure properties can affect the demand for new multi-family rental
housing in some markets, the impact on affordable housing and mixed-income rental communities is
typically limited due to their tenant rent and income restrictions on most units. Furthermore, current
foreclosure activity in the subject properties ZIP Code was minimal over the past year. As such, we
do not believe foreclosed, abandoned, or vacant single/multi-family homes will impact the subject
property’s ability to lease its units.
Table 27 Foreclosure Rate, ZIP Code 30904, March 2014
Table 28 Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30904
Geography
March 2014
Foreclosure Rate
ZIP Code: 30904 0.06%
Augusta 0.09%
Richmond County 0.11%
Georgia 0.09%
National 0.09%
Source: Realtytrac.com
0.06%
0.09%
0.11%
0.09% 0.09%
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
Zip Code - 30904
Month
# of
Foreclosures
April 2013 4
May 2013 12
June 2013 6
July 2013 20
August 2013 11
September 2013 8
October 2013 12
November 2013 12
December 2013 10
January 2014 16
February 2014 10
March 2014 8
Source: Realtytrac.com
4
12
6
20
11
8
12 12
10
16
10
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Properties
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 2
:
71*+*2&
Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housing
trends in the Freedom’s Path Market Area, RPRG offers the following key findings:
1.
Site and Neighborhood Analysis
The subject sites are suitable locations for affordable rental housing as they are compatible with
surrounding land uses and have ample access to amenities, services, and transportation arteries.
The subject properties are Building 76 in the southwestern corner of the Charlie Norwood VA
Medical Center campus and Building 18 on the northern edge of campus. Bordering land uses
include VA facilities and single-family detached homes. Residential uses are common within
one-half mile of the sites.
Community services, neighborhood shopping centers, medical services, and public
transportation are easily accessible in the site’s immediate vicinity including both
convenience and comparison shopping opportunities within three miles.
The VA Campus can be accessed from the main entrance off Wrightsboro Road (via Freedom
Way). Given the traffic light on Freedom Way at Wrightsboro Road, this entrance will provide
convenient access to the subject properties. From Wrightsboro Road, both Interstate 520 and
downtown Augusta are accessible within three miles.
The subject sites are suitable locations for affordable rental housing as they are compatible
with surrounding land uses and have ample access to amenities, services, and transportation
arteries. Given the target market of veterans, the subject site locations on the VA Medical
Center Campus are ideal.
2.
Economic Context
Richmond County has shown signs of stabilization and growth in the past few years.
Richmond County’s unemployment rate increased steadily from 2000 to 2008 before
increasing significantly to 10.6 percent in 2010. Since its peak in 2010, the unemployment rate
has decreased in each of the past three years and has continued its decline in the first quarter
of 2014 to 8.1 percent. By comparison, state and national unemployment rates are 7.2
percent and 6.9 percent, respectively.
Richmond County’s At-Place Employment decreased significantly from 2000 with net losses
in eight of 12 years between 2000 and 2012. The net loss in jobs during this period was 8,732
jobs or 8.2 percent; however, Richmond County has gained 1,583 net jobs over the past three
years.
Government is the largest employment sector in Richmond County, accounting for 23.8
percent of all jobs in the third quarter of 2013. Education-Health, Trade-Transportation-
Utilities, Professional-Business, and Leisure-Hospitality also contain significant employment
shares in Richmond County. Richmond County has a significantly smaller percentage of its job
base in Natural Resources-Mining, Manufacturing, Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Financial
Activities, and Professional-Business.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 3
The most significant economic expansions in the Augusta area are the National Security
Agency and the Army’s Cyber Center for Excellence, both headquartered at Fort Gordon.
Between these two expansions, 4,700 new jobs are expected over the next five years.
3.
Population and Household Trends
The Freedom’s Path Market Area experienced population and household growth from 2010 to 2014.
Growth is expected to continue at a faster pace through 2016. The renter percentage in the market
area increased from 2010 to 2014 and is expected to increase further through 2016.
Between 2000 and 2010, the population of the Freedom’s Path Market Area decreased by 0.5
percent or 210 people per year. During the same time period, the number of households in
the Freedom’s Path Market Area experienced annual decreases of 0.2 percent or 46
households; however, based on Esri projections, the Freedom’s Path Market Area’s
population increased by 804 people and 426 households between 2010 and 2014. RPRG
further projects that the market area’s population will increase by 0.5 percent or 212 people
per year between 2014 and 2016. The household base is projected to gain 112 new
households per annum during this same time period.
The Freedom’s Path Market Area lost owner households but gained renter households
between the 2000 and 2010 census counts. The renter percentage was 53.3 percent in 2010
and is expected to increase to 56.2 percent in 2016.
4.
Demographic Analysis
Young Adults age 20-34 comprise the largest percentage of the population in the Freedom’s
Path Market Area at 31.5 percent. Children/Youth account for 26.5 percent of the population
in the market area.
Approximately thirty-six percent of all households in the market area are singles living alone
compared to 30.4 percent in Richmond County. Households with at least two adults and no
children account for 35.3 percent of households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
Approximately 43 percent of renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area are ages
25 to 44. Older adults and seniors ages 55+ account for 26.9 percent of all renters in the
market area.
As of 2010, 65.4 percent of all renter households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area
contained one or two persons including 38.7 percent with one person.
According to income distributions provided by Esri, the 2014 median household income in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area is $29,283, 80.6 percent of Richmond County’s median
household income of $36,319. RPRG estimates the 2014 median income for renter
households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area is $19,481. Approximately 60 percent of all
renter households in the market area earn less than $25,000 including 41.8 percent earning
below $15,000.
5.
Competitive Housing Analysis
Overall, the rental communities are performing well with modest vacancy rates. While the overall
LIHTC vacancy rate is higher, this due to the poor performance of one property which is older and not
comparable to the units proposed at the subject property.
Excluding Sierra Pointe which refused to report occupancy, the 14 surveyed LIHTC and market
rate rental communities combine to offer 1,673 units, of which 56 or 3.3 percent were
reported vacant. Among the three LIHTC properties, 26 of 372 units were available at the
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 4
time of our survey for a vacancy rate of 7.0 percent; however, all 26 vacant units occurred at
one community (Magnolia Park). Both remaining LIHTC communities were 100 percent
occupied with waiting lists. In addition, both deeply subsidized rental communities were fully
occupied with waiting lists.
Among surveyed LIHTC and market rate rental communities, average net rents and rents per
square foot by floor plan are as follows:
Efficiency
units offered at Champion Pines have an effective rent of $653 per month.
With a unit size of 500 square feet, the resulting net rent per square foot is $1.31.
One-bedroom
effective rents averaged $633 per month. The average one-bedroom
square footage was 681 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.93.
Proposed rents for the units with PBRA are positioned below the overall market average for
both efficiency and one bedroom units. It should be noted that tenants in these units will pay
a percentage of their income and not the proposed contract rent. The rent for the 12 fifty
percent one bedroom units without PBRA is the lowest in the market area.
The average “market rents” among comparable communities are $653 for an efficiency unit
(based on one property) and $655 for a one bedroom unit. Compared to average market
rents, the subject property’s proposed rents would have rent advantages for all unit types.
No new rental communities comparable to Freedom’s Path are planned or under construction
in the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 5
+(!)$1*()1&&
1.
Methodology
The Affordability Analysis tests the percentage of age and income-qualified households in the market
area that the subject community must capture in order to achieve full occupancy.
The first component of the Affordability Analysis involves looking at the total household income
distribution and renter household income distribution among Freedom’s Path Market Area
households for the target year of 2016. RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total
households and renter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household
incomes by income cohort from the 2008-2012 American Community Survey along with estimates
and projected income growth as projected by Esri (Table 29).
A particular housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending a
certain percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. In the
case of rental units, these expenses are generally of two types – monthly contract rents paid to
landlords and payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contract rent
and utility bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the Affordability Analysis of
this community, RPRG employs a 35 percent gross rent burden.
Freedom’s Path will target renter households earning up to 50 percent and 60 percent of the Area
Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size, with additional Project Based Rental Assistance
(PBRA) on 66 units. The subject sites are located in the Augusta-Richmond County MSA for which
HUD has computed a 2014 median household income of $55,900. Maximum income limits are based
on average household sizes of 1.5 persons per bedroom rounded up to the nearest whole number in
accordance with DCA requirements As such, the maximum income limits for efficiency and one-
bedroom units are based on 1.0 persons and 2.0 persons, respectively. The maximum tax credit rents,
however, are based on the federal regulation of 1.5 persons per household. Maximum and minimum
income requirements are detailed for each floor plan in Table 30.
It is important to note, with PBRA, tenant-paid rents will be based on a percentage of each tenant’s
income with no minimum rent contribution. The proposed contract rents on all units with PBRA are
at maximum allowable levels to test the demand for the subject property without PBRA.
Table 29 2016 Total and Renter Income Distribution
# % # %
less than $15,000
5,748 28.9% 4,720 42.3%
$15,000 $24,999
2,731 13.7% 1,908 17.1%
$25,000 $34,999
2,780 14.0% 1,495 13.4%
$35,000 $49,999
2,526 12.7% 1,201 10.8%
$50,000 $74,999
2,342 11.8% 1,012 9.1%
$75,000 $99,999
1,676 8.4% 691 6.2%
$100,000 $149,999
1,269 6.4% 129 1.2%
$150,000 Over
814 4.1% 11 0.1%
Total 19,886 100% 11,166 100%
Median Income
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012 Projections, RPRG, Inc.
Freedom's Path
Market Area
$30,265
$19,526
Total Households Renter Households
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 6
Table 30 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Augusta-Richmond County MSA
HUD 2014 Median Household Income
Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC MSA $55,900
Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $27,950
2014 Computed Area Median Gross Income $55,900
Utility Allowance: Efficiency $0
1 Bedroom $0
2 Bedroom $0
3 Bedroom $0
4 Bedroom $0
LIHTC Household Income Limits by Household Size:
Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%
1 Person
$11,760 $15,680 $19,600 $23,520 $31,360 $39,200 $58,800
2 Persons
$13,440 $17,920 $22,400 $26,880 $35,840 $44,800 $67,200
3 Persons
$15,120 $20,160 $25,200 $30,240 $40,320 $50,400 $75,600
4 Persons
$16,770 $22,360 $27,950 $33,540 $44,720 $55,900 $83,850
5 Persons
$18,120 $24,160 $30,200 $36,240 $48,320 $60,400 $90,600
6 Persons
$19,470 $25,960 $32,450 $38,940 $51,920 $64,900 $97,350
7 Persons
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
8 Persons
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedrooms:
Persons Bedrooms
30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%
1 0 $11,760 $15,680 $19,600 $23,520 $31,360 $39,200 $58,800
2 1 $13,440 $17,920 $22,400 $26,880 $35,840 $44,800 $67,200
3 2 $15,120 $20,160 $25,200 $30,240 $40,320 $50,400 $75,600
4.5 3 $17,445 $23,260 $29,075 $34,890 $46,520 $58,150 $87,225
6 4 $19,470 $25,960 $32,450 $38,940 $51,920 $64,900 $97,350
LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms:
Assumes 1.5 Persons per bedroom
30% 40% 50% 60% 80%
Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
Efficiency $294 $392 $490 $588 $784
1 Bedroom $315 $420 $525 $630 $840
2 Bedroom $378 $504 $630 $756 $1,008
3 Bedroom $436 $582 $727 $872 $1,163
4 Bedroom $487 $649 $811 $974 $1,298
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
# Persons
Assumes 1.5 persons per
bedroom
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 7
2.
Affordability Analysis
The steps in the affordability analysis (Table 31) are as follows:
Looking at the 50 percent efficiency units without PBRA, the overall shelter cost at the
maximum LIHTC rent would be $490 (includes the cost of all utilities).
By applying a 35 percent rent burden to this gross rent, we determined that a 50 percent
efficiency unit would be affordable to households earning at least $16,800 per year. A
projected 13,646 households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area will earn at least this amount
in 2016.
The maximum income limit for a 50 percent AMI efficiency unit is $19,600 based on a
maximum household size of 1.0 person. According to the interpolated income distribution
for 2016, the Freedom’s Path Market Area will have 12,881 households with incomes above
this maximum income.
Subtracting the 12,881 households with incomes above the maximum income limit from the
13,646 households that could afford to rent this unit, RPRG computes that an estimated 765
households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area will be within the target income segment for
the 50 percent AMI efficiency units.
The capture rate for the five efficiency units at 50 percent AMI is 0.7 percent for all
households.
We then determined that 534 renter households with incomes between the minimum income
required and maximum income allowed will reside in the market in 2016. The community will
need to capture 0.9 percent of these renter households to lease up the five units in this floor
plan.
Using the same methodology, we determined the band of qualified households for the
remaining floor plan types and income levels offered in the community. We also computed
the capture rates for all units.
The remaining renter capture rates by floor plan range from 1.4 percent to 4.1 percent.
The renter capture rate is 1.6 percent for 50 percent units, 5.1 percent for 60 percent units,
and 4.2 percent for the project as a whole.
With the inclusion of PBRA, tenants will not be subject to minimum income limits. The
removal of the minimum income limit would significantly increase the number of income
eligible households and the affordability capture rates would drop substantially.
3.
Conclusions of Affordability
All affordability capture rates are well within reasonable and achievable levels for a general occupancy
community.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 8
Table 31 2016 Affordability Analysis, Freedom’s Path
50% Units Efficiency One Bedroom
Min. Max. Min. Max.
Number of Units 5 12
Net Rent $490 $525
Gross Rent $490 $525
% Income for Shelter 35% 35%
Income Range (Min, Max) $16,800 $19,600 $18,000 $22,400
Total Households
Range of Qualified Hslds 13,646 12,881 13,318 12,117
765 1,202
Total HH Capture Rate 0.7% 1.0%
Renter Households
Range of Qualified Hhdls 6,103 5,569 5,874 5,035
534 840
Renter HH Capture Rate 0.9% 1.4%
60% Units Efficiency One Bedroom
Number of Units 23 38
Net Rent $588 $630
Gross Rent $588 $630
% Income for Shelter 35% 35%
Income Range (Min, Max) $20,160 $23,520 $21,600 $26,880
Total Households
Range of Qualified Hslds 12,728 11,811 12,335 10,884
# Qualified Households 918 1,451
Unit Total HH Capture Rate 2.5% 2.6%
Renter Households
Range of Qualified Hhdls 5,462 4,821 5,188 4,258
641 930
Renter HH Capture Rate 3.6% 4.1%
# Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified Households
All Households = 19,886
Renter Households = 11,166
# Qualified
HHs
Band of Qualified
Hhlds
# Qualified
HHs
Capture
Rate
Income $16,800 $16,800
50% Units 17 Households 13,646 1,529 6,103 1,069
1.6%
Income $20,160 $20,160
60% Units 61 Households 12,728 1,844 5,462 1,205
5.1%
Income $16,800 $16,800
Total Units 78 Households 13,646 2,762 6,103 1,846 4.2%
Source: 2010 U.S. Census,Esri, Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
Units
Capture
Rate
Band of Qualified Hhlds
Income
Target
$22,400
12,117
1.1%
$26,880
10,884
$26,880
10,884
3.3%
2.8%
$22,400
5,035
$26,880
4,258
$26,880
4,258
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 9
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1.
Methodology
Although the proposed development will be targeted towards army veterans, no specific DCA
methodology exists for this type of project. As a result, demand and capture rates are based on the
methodology for general occupancy communities in this section with supplemental data on demand
from veterans in the next section of the report. The Georgia Department of Community Affairs’
demand methodology for general occupancy LIHTC communities consists of three components:
The first component of demand is household growth. This number is the number of age and
income qualified renter households projected to move into the Freedom’s Path Market Area
between the base year of 2012 and the first full year of market-entry of 2016.
The next component of demand is income qualified renter households living in substandard
households. “Substandard” is defined as having more than 1.01 persons per room and/or
lacking complete plumbing facilities. According to 2010 Census data, the percentage of renter
households in the Freedom’s Path Market Area that are “substandard” is 3.7 percent (Table
32). This substandard percentage is applied to current household numbers.
The third component of demand is cost burdened renters, which is defined as those renter
households paying more than 35 percent of household income for housing costs. According
to ACS data, 48.0 percent of the Freedom’s Path Market Area’s renter households are
categorized as cost burdened (Table 32).
Demand from the Freedom’s Path Market Area is increased by 15 percent to account for secondary
market area demand. This estimate is based on the veteran target market of the subject property
and its potential to attract tenants from throughout the region. Given the proposed product type,
this estimate of secondary demand is appropriate for Freedom’s Path.
The data assumptions used in the calculation of these demand estimates are detailed at the bottom
of Table 33. Income qualification percentages are derived by using the Affordability Analysis detailed
in Table 31.
2.
Demand Analysis
According to DCA’s demand methodology, all comparable units built or approved since the base year
(2012) are to be subtracted from the demand estimates to arrive at net demand. No such rental
communities exist in the Freedom’s Path Market Area that meet this criterion.
Sixty-six of the 78 units proposed at the subject property will have PBRA; however, per DCA guidelines,
the demand estimates are calculated without PBRA. The overall demand capture rates for the project
are 2.6 percent for 50 percent units, 8.3 percent for 60 percent units, and 6.9 percent for the project
as a whole (Table 33). By floor plan, capture rates range from 2.6 percent to 9.9 percent (Table 34).
All capture rates are well within DCA’s mandated threshold of 30 percent and indicate sufficient
demand to support the proposed development.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 0
Table 32 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations
Table 33 Overall Demand Estimates, Freedom’s Path
Rent Cost Burden Substandardness
Total Households
#
%
Total Households
Less than 10.0 percent 282 3.1% Owner occupied:
10.0 to 14.9 percent 656 7.3% Complete plumbing facilities: 8,878
15.0 to 19.9 percent 894 10.0% 1.00 or less occupants per room 8,822
20.0 to 24.9 percent 874 9.7%
1.01 or more occupants per room
56
25.0 to 29.9 percent 826 9.2% Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 64
30.0 to 34.9 percent 722 8.0% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 120
35.0 to 39.9 percent 527 5.9%
40.0 to 49.9 percent 869 9.7% Renter occupied:
50.0 percent or more 2,537 28.3% Complete plumbing facilities: 8,934
Not computed 784 8.7% 1.00 or less occupants per room 8,640
Total 8,971 100.0%
1.01 or more occupants per room
294
Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 37
> 35% income on rent 3,933 48.0% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 331
Source: American Community Survey 2008-2012
Substandard Housing 451
% Total Stock Substandard 2.5%
% Rental Stock Substandard 3.7%
Income Target
50% Units
60% Units
Total Units
Minimum Income Limit
$16,800
$20,160
$16,800
Maximum Income Limit
$22,400
$26,880
$26,880
(A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage
9.6%
10.8%
16.5%
Demand from New Renter Households
Calculation (C-B) *F*A
23 26 40
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Substandard)
Calculation B*D*F*A
38 43 66
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHhs
(Overburdened) - Calculation B*E*F*A
496 560 857
PLUS
Secondary Market Demand Adjustment (15%)*
98
110
170
Total Demand
656
739
1,133
LESS
Comparable Units Built or Planned Since 2012
0
0
0
Net Demand
656
739
1,133
Proposed Units
17
61
78
Capture Rate
2.6%
8.3%
6.9%
* Limited to 15% of Total Demand
Demand Calculation Inputs
A). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income
see above
B). 2012 Households
19,448
C). 2016 Households
19,886
D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock)
3.7%
E). Rent Overburdened (% of Renter Hhlds at >35%)
48.0%
F). Renter Percentage (% of all 2014 HHlds)
55.5%
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 1
Table 34 Demand Estimates by Floor Plan, Freedom’s Path
$(*&($((*+'(*+
Although a primary market area has been defined for the subject property and used throughout this
report, the proposed units targeted towards veterans at Freedom’s Path will serve veterans from
throughout the county and region. As such, veteran statistics and demand is based on Richmond
County.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 to 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) five-year
estimates, 20,713 veterans reside in Richmond County, which equates to 3.0 percent of Georgia’s
veteran’s (Table 35). Over half of the veterans in Richmond County (58.3 percent) are ages 35-64,
compared to 57.5 percent in the state. More than one-quarter of veterans in both the county and
state are age 65 and older.
Table 35 Veterans by Age, Richmond County and Georgia
According to ACS data, the five-year weighted average median income of veterans in Richmond
County from 2008 to 2012 was $36,636, which was $1,572 or 4.1 percent below the Georgia median
of $38,208 among veterans (Table 36).
Table 36 Median Income among Veterans, Richmond County and Georgia
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400
Efficiency Units $16,800 - $18,750 5 3.3% 194 0 194 2.6%
One Bedroom Units $18,751 - $22,400 12 6.2% 363 0 363 3.3%
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880
Efficiency Units $18,000 - $22,500 23 4.0% 233 0 233 9.9%
One Bedroom Units $22,501 - $26,880 38 6.8% 396 0 396 9.6%
Project Total $16,800 - $26,880
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400 17 9.6% 558 0 558 3.0%
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880 61 10.8% 629 0 629 9.7%
Total Units $16,800 - $26,880 78 16.5% 963 0 963 8.1%
Veterans Age
Richmond County
Georgia
Number Percent Number Percent
18-34 years 2,621 12.9% 61,759 8.8%
35-54 yaers 7,315 35.2% 231,597 33.0%
55-64 years 4,804 23.1% 171,943 24.5%
65-74 years 3,248 15.6% 128,431 18.3%
75 years and over 2,725 13.1% 108,078 15.4%
TOTAL Veterans 20,713 100% 701,808 100%
Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey
Veteran Median Income Richmond County Georgia
$ $
Civilian population 18 years and over with income $36,636 $38,208
Male $37,604 $38,964
Female $32,009 $32,067
Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 2
The American Community Survey also indicates that the five-year weighted average unemployment
rate from 2008 to 2012 among veterans was 8.4 percent in Richmond County and 8.5 percent in
Georgia (Table 37). The weighted average percentage of veteran’s unemployed from 2008 to 2012
was lower than the average county (9.7 percent) and state (9.0 percent) unemployment figures for
total labor force during that same time period. Among veterans in Richmond County, the five-year
weighted average of 2,099 veterans or 10.1 percent lived below the poverty line, compared to 7.4
percent of veterans in Georgia (Table 38).
Table 37 Veteran Employment Status, Richmond County and Georgia
Table 38 Veteran Poverty Status, Richmond County and Georgia
The National Coalition for Homeless Veterans describes the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs’
Project CHALENG report as the “most regular and reliable account of homeless veterans and their
needs as cited by homeless veterans and service providers alike”. According to the 2008 CHALENG
Survey Results, which provide estimates of need by region (2008), the Augusta-Richmond County
region had 108 homeless veterans as of 2008. Based on housing availability and need, the Augusta-
Richmond County service area was in need of 38 emergency beds, 175 transitional housing beds, and
50 permanent housing beds (Table 39). While dated, these estimates provide the best indication of
demand for homeless veterans in the Augusta-Richmond County Region. Though newer aggregate
data on homeless veterans is available as of 2011, this data is no longer segmented by local area
and/or region. Overall, the proposed development of the 78 units at Freedom’s Path will satisfy the
housing demand for this population.
Table 39 Homeless Veterans and Housing Needs, Augusta-Richmond County
Veteran Employment Status Richmond County Georgia
# % # %
Civilian Labor Force 18-64 years 11,346 357,973
Employment 10,393 91.6% 327,545 91.5%
Unemployment 953 8.4% 30,428 8.5%
Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey
Veteran Poverty Status Richmond County Georgia
# % # %
Civilian population 18 years and over 20,713 701,808
Below Poverty in the last 12 months 2,099 10.1% 52,229 7.4%
Source: 2008-2012 American Community Survey
Estimated Homeless Veterans: 108
Housing Type # of Veteran specific beds in area* # of additional beds site could use
Emergency Beds 0 38
Transitional Housing Beds 0 175
Permanent Housing Beds 35 50
* These are the number of beds that Veterans can access that are Veteran-specific.
Source: National Coalition for Homeless Veterans, U.S. Dept. of Veterans Affairs.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 3
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As no comparable rental communities have been newly constructed in the Freedom’s Path Market
Area over the last two years, historical absorption data at comparable communities was unavailable.
In the absence of experiences from existing LIHTC communities, several other factors including
projected household growth, income-qualified renter households in the market area, demand
estimates, rental market conditions, and the marketability of the proposed site and product are used
to determine absorption estimates.
From 2014 to 2016, households are projected to increase at an annual rate of 112 households
per year.
The subject property will target veterans for which demand has been determined by the
National Coalition for Homeless Veterans based on U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs’ data.
Without PBRA, a total of 1,846 renter households will be income qualified for one or more of
the 78 units proposed at the subject property. With the inclusion of PBRA, many more
households will become income qualified.
Existing rental communities located in the market area are performing well. The vacancy rate
for all units without PBRA in the market area is 3.3 percent and the vacancy rate for all LIHTC
units is 7.0 percent among 372 total units (all vacant units at one community). The two
communities with PBRA have zero vacancies among 14 total units and both hold waiting lists.
All DCA demand capture rates without PBRA, both by income level and floor plan, are well
within the acceptable threshold of 30 percent. Total DCA demand for the proposed units
without PBRA is 1,133 households, resulting in a capture rate of 6.9 percent. This shows
sufficient demand to support the proposed units both with and without PBRA.
The proposed 50 percent LIHTC rent for the one-bedroom units without PBRA will be the
lowest in the market area.
Upon completion, Freedom’s Path will offer an attractive product that will be a desirable
rental community in the Freedom’s Path Market Area.
We believe the product proposed will be appealing to the target market given the unit designs,
amenities, and location on the VA Medical Center Campus. Based on these factors, market conditions,
and assuming an aggressive, professional marketing campaign, Freedom’s Path should be able to
lease up 16 units with PBRA and eight units without PBRA per month. At this rate, the project would
be able achieve 93 percent occupancy within approximately four months. This lease-up rate assumes
PBRA on 66 units and allows additional time to identify potential residents. If the individuals in the
target market area are identified early, the lease up period may be shortened.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 4
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Freedom’s Path will target very low to moderate income renter households and provide housing for
veterans of the American Armed Services. With a unit mix of one bedroom and efficiency units,
potential renter households will primarily consist of single-person households and some couples.
+ #$() ($*
Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of Freedom’s Path is
as follows:
Site:
The proposed development is located on the campus of the Charlie Norwood VA Medical
Center, which is ideal given the target market. The surrounding land uses of VA facilities and
single-family homes are compatible with the proposed development. The sites are located
within close proximity of neighborhood amenities including health care, shopping, and public
transportation.
Unit Distribution:
The proposed unit mix includes 50 one-bedroom units and 28 efficiencies,
which is appropriate given the target market. One-bedroom units are common in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area and efficiency units are appropriate given the targeted
population.
Unit Size:
As an adaptive re-use, Freedom’s Path will include a variety of unit configurations
and floor plans with approximate average unit sizes of 525 square feet for efficiencies and
700 square feet for one-bedroom units. Overall, the average proposed sizes of the efficiency
and one-bedroom units are comparable to the average unit sizes of surveyed rental
communities.
Unit Features:
The newly constructed units at the subject properties will offer kitchens or
kitchenettes (efficiency units) with new energy star appliances including a refrigerator, range,
dishwasher (one bedroom units only), garbage disposal, and microwave. Flooring will be a
combination of wall-to-wall carpeting and vinyl tile in the kitchen / bathrooms. In addition,
all units will include high speed internet access, cable TV connections, and window blinds.
The proposed unit features at Freedom’s Path will be competitive with existing LIHTC and
market rate rental communities in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and will be well received
by the target market.
Community Amenities
Freedom’s Path’s community amenity package will include a multi-
purpose room with kitchen, TV room, fitness center, equipped computer center, covered
pavilions, picnic areas with barbeque grills, and central laundry areas. These amenities will
surpass the majority of the surveyed rental stock in the Freedom’s Path Market Area and will
be appealing to prospective tenants.
Marketability:
Freedom’s Path will offer an attractive product that will be affordable and
competitive with existing market rate and LIHTC rental communities in the Freedom’s Path
Market Area. Freedom’s Path will be specifically designed to meet the needs of the targeted
veteran population. The adaptive reuse of the historic buildings will result in a unique and
attractive community that maintains the character of the neighborhood. The proposed design
will be well received among the target population.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 5
4#&$*
Given the existence of PBRA on 66 units, the tenants in these units will not actually pay the proposed
contract rents at Freedom’s Path; however, if the subject property were to lose these additional
subsidies, proposed rents could not exceed maximum allowable tax credit rents. Evaluating the
proposed rents in this context, Freedom’s Path would be positioned in the middle of the rental market
and $65 to $95 below the two highest priced rental communities for efficiency and one bedroom floor
plans, respectively. The 12 one bedroom units without PBRA would have the lowest rents in the
market area. With slightly larger than average units sizes, Freedom’s Path will also be priced
affordably on a rent per square foot basis. Figure 8 illustrates the relative positions of the proposed
rent structure in the current marketplace.
Figure 8 Price Position
'%(#$*A&$*2(.$
The development of Freedom’s Path Apartments should not have an adverse impact on the existing
rental stock in the Freedom’s Path Market Area, as none of the LIHTC and market rate rental
communities serve the same tenant population as the subject property. In addition, the subject
property is likely to attract a significant number of tenants from beyond the Freedom’s Path Market
Area in the greater Augusta-Richmond County region. Furthermore, the rental market in the
Freedom’s Path Market Area is generally performing well with modest vacancies.
Freedom’s Path | Findings and Conclusions
Page 6 6
0 *()*#) &*&(*+#''*+($*&
Based on an analysis of the proposed target market, demand for these specialized units, current rental
market conditions, and socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the primary market area,
RPRG believes that the proposed Freedom’s Path will be able to successfully reach and maintain a
stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent upon entrance into the rental market assuming the
existence of project based rental assistance.
The product to be constructed will not only be geared toward the veteran population, but will also be
competitive with the local rental market. The proposed development will also help address the void
for housing for veterans. We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak
Analyst Principal
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Absorption
Average
Market Rent
Market
Rents Band
Proposed
Rents
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400
Efficiency Units $16,800 - $18,750 5 3.3% 194 0 194 2.6% 2 months $653 $653 $490
One Bedroom Units $18,751 - $22,400 12 6.2% 363 0 363 3.3% 3 months $655 $591-$725 $525
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880
Efficiency Units $18,000 - $22,500 23 4.0% 233 0 233 9.9% 3 months $653 $653 $588
One Bedroom Units $22,501 - $26,880 38 6.8% 396 0 396 9.6% 4 months $655 $591-$725 $630
Project Total $16,800 - $26,880
50% Units $16,800 - $22,400 17 9.6% 558 0 558 3.0% 3 months
60% Units $20,160 - $26,880 61 10.8% 629 0 629 9.7% 4 months
Total Units $16,800 - $26,880 78 16.5% 963 0 963 8.1% 4 months
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 6 7
In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws,
regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of the
subject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed,
marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes.
2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code (including,
without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) any federal, state
or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with the subject project.
3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be no
significant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation.
4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmental
facilities.
5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake,
flood, fire or other casualty or act of God.
6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in our
report, and at the price position specified in our report.
7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner.
8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except as set
forth in our report.
9. There are neither existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which could hinder
the development, marketing or operation of the subject project.
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 6 8
The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates and
assumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economic
conditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters. Some
estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and
circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis
will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.
2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations set
forth in our report will be followed without material deviation.
3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without any
allowance for inflation or deflation.
4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Such
considerations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architectural
matters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical,
structural and other engineering matters.
5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we have
obtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not been
independently verified.
6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these Underlying Assumptions
and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth in the body of our
report.
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 6 9
/
I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:
The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.
The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported
assumptions and limiting conditions, and is my personal, unbiased professional analyses,
opinions, and conclusions.
I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report,
and I have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.
My compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analysis,
opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.
The market study was not based on tax credit approval or approval of a loan. My
compensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined demand that
favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of
a subsequent event.
My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been
prepared, in conformity with the requirements of the Code of Professional Ethics and the
Standards of Professional Practice as set forth in the Uniform Standards of Professional
Appraisal Practice (USPAP) as adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal
Foundation.
To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the proposed project as shown in
the study. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the
denial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs.
DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study provided and this
document is assignable to other lenders that are parties to the DCA loan transaction.
__________________
Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak
Analyst Principal
Real Property Research Group, Inc. Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing
any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the
United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 0
34
This market study has been prepared by Real Property Research Group, Inc., a member in good
standing of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This study has been prepared in
conformance with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These standards
include the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects and
Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects. These
Standards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make them easier to prepare,
understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These Standards are voluntary only, and no
legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the National Council of Housing Market Analysts.
Real Property Research Group, Inc. is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis
for Affordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCHMA educational and information
sharing programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. Real
Property Research Group, Inc. is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of Real
Property Research Group, Inc. has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which this
analysis has been undertaken.
While the document specifies Real Property Research Group, Inc., the certification is always
signed by the individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
____ Tad Scepaniak___ _
Name
_ __ Principal___ _
Title
_________May 22, 2014_______
Date
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 1
6
ROBERT M. LEFENFELD
Mr. Lefenfeld is the Managing Principal of the firm with over 30 years of experience in the field of
residential market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in February, 2001, Bob
served as an officer of research subsidiaries of the accounting firm of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and
Legg Mason. Between 1998 and 2001, Bob was Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors,
conducting market studies throughout the United States on rental and for sale projects. From 1987
to 1995, Bob served as Senior Vice President of Legg Mason Realty Group, managing the firm’s
consulting practice and serving as publisher of a Mid-Atlantic residential data service, Housing Market
Profiles. Prior to joining Legg Mason, Bob spent ten years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council as
a housing economist. Bob also served as Research Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and
1998, analyzing markets throughout the Eastern United States and evaluating the company’s active
building operation.
Bob oversees the execution and completion of all of the firm’s research assignments, ranging from a
strategic assessment of new development and building opportunities throughout a region to the
development and refinement of a particular product on a specific site. He combines extensive
experience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and information
management. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and proprietary
databases serving real estate professionals.
Bob has lectured and written extensively on the subject of residential real estate market analysis. He
has served as a panel member, speaker, and lecturer at events held by the National Association of
Homebuilders, the National Council on Seniors’ Housing and various local homebuilder associations.
Bob serves as a visiting professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School of
Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He has served as
National Chair of the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts (NCAHMA) and is
currently a board member of the Baltimore chapter of Lambda Alpha Land Economics Society.
Areas of Concentration:
Strategic Assessments
:
Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughout the
United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating development opportunities.
Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposed development activity
by submarket and discuss opportunities for development.
Feasibility Analysis
:
Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types of residential
developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have included for-sale single-
family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for-sale developments, large multi-
product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities for the elderly.
Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients in
monitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipeline
information, and rental communities. Information compiled is committed to a Geographic
Information System (GIS), facilitating the comprehensive integration of data.
Education:
Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University.
Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University.
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 2
TAD SCEPANIAK
Tad Scepaniak directs the Atlanta office of Real Property Research Group and leads the firm’s
affordable housing practice. Tad directs the firm’s efforts in the southeast and south central United
States and has worked extensively in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee,
Iowa, and Michigan. He specializes in the preparation of market feasibility studies for rental housing
communities, including market-rate apartments developed under the HUD 221(d)(4) program and
affordable housing built under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program. Along with work for
developer clients, Tad is the key contact for research contracts with the North Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Iowa Housing Finance agencies. Tad is also responsible for
development and implementation of many of the firm’s automated systems.
Tad is Co-Chair of the Standards Committee of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts
(NCHMA). He has taken a lead role in the development of the organization's Standard Definitions and
Recommended Market Study Content, and he has authored and co-authored white papers on market
areas, derivation of market rents, and selection of comparable properties. Tad is also a founding
member of the Atlanta chapter of the Lambda Alpha Land Economics Society.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Tax Credit Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has worked extensively with the Low Income
Tax Credit program throughout the United States, with special emphasis on the Southeast and Mid-
Atlantic regions.
Senior Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted feasibility analysis for a variety of senior oriented rental
housing. The majority of this work has been under the Low Income Tax Credit program; however his
experience includes assisted living facilities and market rate senior rental communities.
Market Rate Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted various projects for developers of market
rate rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used to determine the
rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing.
Public Housing Authority Consultation: Tad has worked with Housing Authorities throughout the
United States to document trends rental and for sale housing market trends to better understand
redevelopment opportunities. He has completed studies examining development opportunities for
housing authorities through the Choice Neighborhood Initiative or other programs in Florida, Georgia,
North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
Education:
Bachelor of Science – Marketing; Berry College – Rome, Georgia
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 3
BRETT WELBORN
Analyst
Brett Welborn entered the field of Real Estate Market Research in 2008, joining Real Property
Research Group’s (RPRG) Atlanta office as a Research Associate upon college graduation. During
Brett’s time as a Research Associate, he gathered economic, demographic, and competitive data for
market feasibility analyses and other consulting projects completed by the firm. Through his
experience, Brett has progressed to serve as Analyst for RPRG.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Housing Tax Credit Rental Housing: Brett has worked with the Low Income Housing Tax
Credit program, evaluating general occupancy and senior oriented developments for State allocating
agencies, lenders, and developers. His work with the LIHTC program has spanned a range of project
types, including newly constructed communities and rehabilitations.
In addition to market analysis responsibilities, Brett has also assisted in the development of research
tools for the organization.
Education:
Bachelor of Business Administration – Real Estate; University of Georgia, Athens, GA
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 4
847
I understand that by initializing (or checking) the following items, I am stating that those items are included
and/or addressed in the report. If an item is not checked, a full explanation is included in the report. A
list listing of page number(s) is equivalent to check or initializing.
The report was written according to DCA's market study requirements, that the information included is
accurate and that the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment of the low-income housing
rental market.
I also certify that I have inspected the subject property as well as all rent comparables.
Signed: Date: May 22, 2014
Brett Welborn
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Page 7 8
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Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 7 9
?447
Introduction:
Members of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts provides a checklist referencing all
components of their market study. This checklist is intended to assist readers on the location and content of
issues relevant to the evaluation and analysis of market studies. The page number of each component
referenced is noted in the right column. In cases where the item is not relevant, the author has indicated "N/A"
or not applicable. Where a conflict with or variation from client standards or client requirements exists, the
author has indicated a "V" (variation) with a comment explaining the conflict. More detailed notations or
explanations are also acceptable.
Component (*First occurring page is noted)
*Page(s)
Execut
ive Summary
1.
Executive Summary
Project Summary
2.
Project description with exact number of bedrooms and baths
proposed, income limitation, proposed rents, and utility allowances
9
,
11
3.
Utilities (and utility sources) included in rent
9
,
11
4.
Project design description
9
,
11
5.
Unit and project amenities; par
king
9
,
11
6.
Public programs included
9
7.
Target population description
9
8.
Date of construction/preliminary completion
11
9.
If rehabilitation, existing unit breakdown and rents
N/A
10.
Reference to review/status of project plans
9
Location and Market Area
11.
Market area/secondary market area description
24
12.
Concise description of the site and adjacent parcels
12
13.
Description of site characteristics
12
14.
Site photos/maps
13
-
16
15.
Map of community services
22
16.
Visibility and accessibility evaluation
20
17.
Crime information
18
Employment and Economy
18.
Employment by industry
29
19.
Historical unemployment rate
27
20.
Area major employers
30
21.
Five
-
year employment growth
28
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 8 0
22
.
Discussion of commuting patterns of area workers
26
Demographic Characteristics
23
.
Population and household estimates and projections
33
24
.
Area building permits
34
25
.
Distribution of income
39
26
.
Households by tenure
37
Competitive Environment
27
.
Comparable property profiles
81
28
.
Map of comparable p
roperties
42
29
.
Comparable property photos
81
30
.
Existing rental housing evaluation
40
31
.
Comparable property discussion
42
32
.
Area vacancy rates, including rates for tax credit and government
-
subsidized communities
42
33
.
Comparison of subject property to comparable properties
64
34
.
Availability of Housing Ch
oice Vouchers
49
35
.
Identification of waiting lists
49
36
.
Description of overall rental market including share of market
-
rate
and affordable properties
42
3
7
.
List of existing LIHTC properties
49
38
.
Discussion of future changes in housing stock
49
39
.
Discussion of availability and cost of other affordable housing
options, including homeowne
rship
40
40
.
Tax credit and other planned or under construction rental
communities in market area
49
Analysis/Conclusions
41
.
Calculation and analysis of Capture Rate
59
42
.
Calculation and analysis of Penetration Rate
N/A
43
.
Evaluation of proposed rent levels
65
4
4
.
Derivation of Achievable Market Rent and Market Advantage
47
45
.
Deriva
tion of Achievable Restricted Rent
N/A
46
.
Precise statement of key conclusions
52
47
.
Market strengths and weaknesses impacting project
64
48
.
Recommendation and/or modification to proje
ct description
64
, if
applicable
49
.
Discussion of subject property’s impact on existing housing
64
50
.
Absorption projection with issues impacting performance
63
51
.
Discussion of risks or other mitigating circumstances impacting
project
66
, if
applicable
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 8 1
52
.
Interviews with area housing stakeholders
49
Certifications
53
.
Preparation date o
f report
Cover
54
.
Date of field work
7
55
.
Certifications
63
56
.
Statement of qualifications
63
57
.
Sources of data not otherwise identified
N/A
58
.
Utility allowance schedule
N/A
Freedom’s Path | Appendix
Page 8 2
=
Community Address City Phone Number Date Surveyed Contact
Aumond Villa 3151 Lake Front Dr. Augusta
706-733-3823 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Baywood 2595 Kelly St. Augusta
706-738-9106 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Champion Pines 1500 Champion Pines Ln. Augusta
706-733-1600 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Forest Brook 3122 Damascus Rd. Augusta
706-738-8440 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Forest Hills 2801 Walton Way. Augusta
706-364-7490 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Georgian Place 1700 Valley Park Ct. Augusta
706-733-7829 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Highland Terrace 2595 Kelly St. Augusta
706-738-9106 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Independent Living Horizons II 2038 Fenwick St. Augusta
706-823-8501 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Independent Living Horizons III 2208 Walden Dr. Augusta
706-823-8501 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Magnolia Park 2133 Vandivere Rd. Augusta
706-738-9912 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Oak Hill 817 Hickman Rd. Augusta
706-733-9717 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Sierra Pointe 1814 Fayetteville Dr. Augusta
706-945-1149 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Singleton 2595 Kelly St. Augusta
706-738-9106 5/27/2014 Property Manager
The Crest at Edinburgh 3227 Milledgeville Rd. Augusta
706-504-9114 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Vintage Creek 1924 Northleg Rd. Augusta
706-550-9601 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Willow Ridge 2812 Joy Rd. Augusta
706-738-5339 5/27/2014 Property Manager
Woodhaven 1840 Killingsworth Rd. Augusta
706-733-4832 5/27/2014 Property Manager
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